Football specialist James O’Rourke (@JamesOR1) previews Chile v Peru and provides us with his best bets for this Copa America semi-final encounter by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -7.63pts

Chile v Peru Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 04/07/2019
  • Time: 01:30
  • Venue: Arena do Gremio, Porto Alegre
  • Channel: Premier Sports

Both Chile and Peru required penalty shootouts to progress out of the quarter finals; games in what each was the designated underdog. Chile were perhaps a little unfortunate not to win inside 90 minutes over a rather lacklustre Colombia, whilst Peru very much ‘did a job’ in taking Uruguay to spot kicks. Chile certainly have ‘The Midas Touch’ when it comes to playing in the Copa America. They’ve won the last two editions, and who would back against them making it a hat-trick, even with one of Brazil or Argentina awaiting the winner. Peru did finish the 2015 tournament, the first of Chile’s double titles, in third after winning a play-off versus Paraguay.

Chile have not necessarily convinced en route to this stage of the tournament. Whilst they opened with a 4-0 win over Japan, that certainly did not tell the entire story. They would edge past Ecuador, before losing out to Uruguay in a group decider. That set up a clash with Colombia, who had a 100% tournament record at the time, and they would have the better of that duel. They had excuses, their bus arrived late to the stadium after being caught in traffic and this ageing squad had looked weary in parts of recent matches. Colombia entered the fresher in the minds of many. Chile looked the more likely throughout, and deservedly progressed on spot kicks. Their fans may start taking to their head coach Reinaldo Ruera, who has been largely unpopular amongst the supporter base.

Peru deserves credit for reaching this point after their collapse in losing 5-0 to Brazil in their final group encounter. This meant they relied on scores elsewhere to progress as one of the best third-place sides. They reacted to this setback perfectly, and whilst it has meant they’ve lacked a goal threat in recent matches, defensively they have sharpened up. It wasn’t hard to do so after that Brazil setback, but mentally more than anything they’ve proved their credentials. They’d probably be happy to take their chances on penalties once again here, whilst Chile firmly have their sights on a Copa America threesome.

Team News

Chile are primed to name an unchanged starting eleven once for this game. This would mean the same eleven taking to the field for the fourth time out of a possible five. Reinaldo Rueda rotated for their final group game loss to Uruguay, when making four alterations.

Eight Peru players has started every single game at this 2019 Copa America, including star striker Paolo Guerrero. Jefferson Farfan would have been one of those but injury ruled him out of their quarter-final shootout triumph over Uruguay. His injury in fact has ruled him out of the entire tournament, which is a blow for Peru even if they did progress without him last time out. Edison Flores should retain his place in the starting eleven. Ricardo Gareca elected to freshen up his side after the heavy loss to Peru, a move which proved beneficial.

Potential Chile Starting XI: Arias, Isla, Medel, Maripan, Beausejour, Vidal, Pulgar, Aranguiz, Fuenzalida, Vargas, Sanchez.

Potential Peru Starting XI: Gallese, Advincula, Zambrano, Abram, Trauco, Tapia, Yotun, Carrillo, Cueva, Flores, Guerrero.

Head To Head

  • Peru may have won the most recent meeting in this head-to-head battle in a October 2018 friendly 3-0, Chile have ultimately had the upper hand more often than not over the years. Chile has won 12 of the last 14 renewals. This includes doing the double over Peru in the most recent World Cup qualification campaign, one of which ended in a 4-3 away win.
  • Some encouragement for Peru is that not only did they win the last time these two met, but that was also on neutral territory in Florida. Opponents have tend to find it hard away in Peru in particular conditions, so Peru will take heart from that win.
  • Head-To-Head Record: Chile 45, Peru 22, Draw 14.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Peru have found the back of the net in one of their 2019 Copa America matches inside 90-minutes. They qualified out of their group as one of the best third-placed teams.
  • Prior to their quarter-final penalty shootout win over Uruguay, the Chilean team bus arrived late after being caught in traffic for two hours, leading to the kick-off being nudged back a further 20 minutes.
  • Only Brazil have achieved a higher average game possession percentage compared to Chile. Peru’s is only approximately 4% higher than Bolivia’s; who occupy the lowest average possession percentage in this 2019 Copa America.
  • However, Peru actually has a higher pass success rate in comparison to Chile (80.7% compared to 79.4%).
  • There is every chance this game could fall into the ‘stop-start’ category, as these two nations have made the most fouls of any side in the tournament. Chile edges Peru in this respective stat 76 to 71. Chile however are the most fouled side with 67, one more than Brazil and Uruguay.

Betting Odds

  • Chile 1/1
  • Draw 9/4
  • Peru 73/20

The Verdict

Something which those betting on this game do need to take into account is that this encounter will be taking place at the Arena do Gremio. This has been an area of criticism for teams playing here due to the poor standard of playing surface. Three of the four games to be staged here has ended under 2.50 goals. The quarter-finals proved rather uneventful overall in relation to goals, with three of the ties heading to extra time. Will the semi-finals head that way? Well, as I touched upon above, I think Peru would be happy for it to do so. They’re the underdogs here and showed in the Uruguay game that they can do a job defensively, but that would then mean they’re lack something in attack. This is likely to be a case of if Chile can break them down. Chile have actually only had one more shot on goal compared to Peru at this summer’s tournament, but they do have three more goals. Only Brazil has kept more possession compared to Chile, so that gives an indication of how this game should play out tactically. Chile are the side to be with here, and they’ve enjoyed the H2H battle for a while now as well. I’m happy to just stick with them at even money, although I am half-tempted to back them and U2.5 at around the 12/5 mark.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Chile to win – 1/1 (Marathon)