Fulham v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 03/03/19

Fulham v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews Fulham v Chelsea and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s West London derby by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -3.39pts

Fulham v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 03/03/19
  • Time: 14:00
  • Venue: Craven Cottage
  • Channel: Sky Sports Main Event

The second instalment of what is a Derby weekend in the Premier League provides with undoubtedly the least competitive of the three local rivalries on display over the course of the next two days.

The West London derby is certainly not the fiercest rivalry in the country and probably isn’t the biggest West London derby this weekend, with Brentford hosting QPR at Griffin Park on Saturday in what is usually a very entertaining and competitive fixture.

This is, of course, Scott Parker’s first game in charge as Fulham boss after the sacking of Claudio Ranieri following Fulham’s 2-0 defeat away at Southampton on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how he sets up this Fulham side that, despite some talent, have only accumulated 4 wins and 17 points this season.

It’s incredible that a squad that has the likes of Andre Schurrle, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Jean Michael Seri, Ryan Sessegnon, Tom Cairney, Callum Chambers and now Ryan Babel, has been pretty much summoned to the drop with over 10 league games to go.

Chelsea and Maurizio Sarri come into this one after a massive win over Spurs midweek which probably saved his job (for a few more days). After the poor results in recent weeks and months along with Kepa-gate, it almost feels like Sarri is another bad result away from getting the sack.

Not only did the Spurs win save Sarri’s job, but it also put Chelsea right back in the mix of it when it comes to securing a Champions League place next season. The win has left them three points behind 4th place Arsenal with the Blues also having a game in hand on their London rivals.

The two most recent performances may have proven to Sarri not to be so stubborn and fixed on playing his ‘Sarriball’ that was so successful in Italy (0 trophies). The slow build-up with the fixation of his side’s play being dictated by a man that is unable to really penetrate the lines with his passing, combined with how vulnerable they are against the counter (Rudiger/Luiz constantly left in 2v2/2v3’s) has riled up many Chelsea fans over the last few games, calling for Sarri’s  job.

A solid structure with a stout defence has proved to have been the key in their last two performances with superb transitional play causing City problems in the final last Sunday, a game in which they took Guardiola’s side, who had beaten Chelsea 6-0 at the Etihad (let’s say Sarri’s high press didn’t go to plan) just a couple of weeks prior, to penalties, albeit to lose. Moreover, the importance of N’Golo Kante was on full display last week with two exceptional performances against two of the league’s best sides. He was phenomenal in both but his performance at Wembley last Sunday was particularly special and will certainly go under the radar.

Team News        

Fulham forward Andre Schurrle, who scored a hat-trick for Chelsea at Craven Cottage in 2014, is a doubt to face his former club due to illness. Long-term absentees Alfie Mawson and Marcus Bettinelli remain out.

Chelsea currently have no injury issues with the only real question being if Kepa Arrizabalaga will return to Chelsea’s starting 11 after his ‘miscommunication’ with Maurizio Sarri in last week’s Carabao Cup final.

Potential Fulham Starting XI: Rico, Christie, Odoi, Ream, Bryan, Cairney, Chambers, Sessegnon, Babel, Mitrovic.

Potential Chelsea Starting XI: Kepa, Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Luiz, Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Barkley, Willian, Higuain, Hazard.

Head To Head

  • All-time: Fulham-11, Draw-26, Chelsea-47.
  • Fulham haven’t beaten Chelsea since a 1-0 at Craven Cottage in 2006.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Chelsea are unbeaten in 18 games against their West London rivals (all comps).
  • Reverse fixture ended in a 2-0 win for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
  • Fulham have lost seven of their past eight Premier League games, conceding at least twice in every match.
  • They have lost all nine of their Premier League London derby matches this season and could become the first team in top-flight history to lose 10 such matches in one campaign.
  • Aleksandar Mitrovic is Fulham’s leading scorer this season with an impressive 10 PL goals- has only scored three times since they last met Chelsea back in December.
  • Eden Hazard has 12G’s and 10A’s this season, the only player in the PL to hit double digits in both categories so far.
  • Chelsea's win against Tottenham was just a third in seven league matches, drawing one and losing three.
  • The Blues could lose four successive away league matches for the first time since a run of five from October to December 2000 under Claudio Ranieri.
  • They haven't gone four away league matches without scoring since December 1991.

Betting Odds

  • Fulham 6/1
  • Draw 62/17
  • Chelsea 8/15

The Verdict

I think there’s some value in backing Chelsea at 8/15. They are on the back off too performances that are potentially season-changers, I’ll be very surprised if they lose to a broken Fulham side who have sacked their manager for the second time this season. Fulham are also coming off the back of four consecutive losses with just 1 win in 8, this game has Chelsea all over it.

I was tempted with the correct score market as I reckon this game ends in 1-0 or a 2-0 Chelsea win. Instead of backing the scoreline, I’m going to separate my bets into U2.5 goals and Chelsea to keep a clean sheet. Scott Parker won’t want to be embarrassed on his managerial debut and will set up his side so they’ll be hard to beat, which is tricky when you have the league’s worst defence. Therefore, under 2.5 goals is a great shout as Sarri’s Chelsea generally find it tough to break sides down rather than posing a threat on the counter. Nevertheless, they have too much quality with the likes of Eden Hazard and Gonzalo Higuain in their ranks, expect them two to have a say in this one. The clean sheet bet also looks good. Fulham have scored just once in their last 4 whilst Chelsea’s defence has certainly improved in recent games, keeping clean sheets against Spurs and Man City (for 120 mins) in the past 7 days.

Recommended Bets

  • 3pts – Chelsea to win –  8/15 (Betfair)
  • 2pts – Under 2.5 goals- 32/25 (Marathon Bet)
  • 2pts – Chelsea clean sheet- 5/4 (bet365)