James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews Getafe v Barcelona and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s La Liga clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
Getafe v Barcelona Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 06/01/19
- Time: 19:45
- Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez
- Channel: Eleven Sports 1
Barcelona will be looking to maintain some consistency throughout the second half of the season, starting with a tough trip to 7th place Getafe on Sunday night.
Barcelona are looking to make it back-to-back La Liga titles, however they have found it much more of a challenge this time out after nearly going unbeaten last season. The Catalans have already drawn 4 and lost 2 of their 17 fixtures and are only 3 points clear of Atletico in 2nd.
Getafe are having another strong campaign and with a win on Sunday will move 2 points adrift of Real Madrid who are currently in 4th. The main aim, however, will be to secure European football for next season. At the moment they’re only a point behind Betis in 6th.
Barcelona have the best scoring record in the league by a country mile, scoring 48 in 17 La Liga games (next best in 30) and this is largely down to the 5th best player in the world who has contributed to 25 of these goals (15G’s, 10A’s). As the goal-scoring record shows, this Barcelona side is once again imperious going forward with some of the best ball retainers in football with Rakitic, Busquets and new signing Arthur (who looks incredible) along with Messi, Suarez, Coutinho and Dembele in attack. Valverde has used various formations this season but has generally stuck with the 4-3-3 which allows his players the midfield and attack to inter-change with one another so freely which makes them so hard to defend against.
Barcelona’s defence is what has been the issue and is the reason why they have struggled in the Champions League in the last couple of seasons. Prior to December, they had conceded in every league game apart from the first two and had conceded 4 at home to Betis and two to minnows Huesca and Rayo Vallecano. Surprisingly, their defensive record has improved since world-class talent Samuel Umtiti has been out injured, keeping four clean sheets in a row.
On the other hand, Getafe boast a very impressive defensive record this season. The Azulones have the best defence in the league statistically, conceding just 13 league goals so far. They have had a consistent back four in Suarez, Djene, Cabrera and Antunes, all of which have been superb this season.
It’s fair to say that Getafe did some great business in the summer, adding key pieces like Vitorino Antunes, Mauro Arambarri, Nemanja Maksimovic, David Soria, Leandro Cabrera and Jaime Mata for around £12m. The youth and experience have complemented each other really well in this side and it’s the veterans who are really driving this Getafe team. 31-year old Antunes has been their star man (according to who.scored.com) with a 7.05 rating whilst 36-year old Jorge Molina and 31-year old Angel Rodriguez have 9 league goals between them.
It will be very tough for Getafe to break into the top 6 come the end of the season. Can they rely on a 36-year old to get most of their goals from now until May and will the defence be able to be so dominant for the remainder of the season considering the actual talent in that backline. I have my doubts but I still think maybe an 8th-10th placed finish will be an overachievement for this squad.
The home side will be without Amath Ndiaye who is out with a ligament rupture until June. Markel Bergara is also expected to miss out with an arm fracture.
There are no new injury concerns for Barca. Samuel Umtiti, Malcom and Thomas Vermaelen are expected to remain on the sidelines. Rafinha will also miss the rest of the season with the cruciate ligament injury he picked up back in November.
Potential Getafe Starting XI: Soria, Suarez, Cabrera, Djene, Antunes, Foulquier, Maksimovic, Arambarri, Mata, Molina, Angel.
Potential Barcelona Starting XI: Ter Stegen, Roberto, Pique, Lenglet, Alba, Busquets, Rakitic, Arthur, Coutinho, Suarez, Messi.
Head To Head
- Getafe-3, Draw-6, Barcelona-21.
- Getafe haven’t beaten Barcelona since November 2011.
Key Stats & Facts
- Getafe have scored just once v Barcelona in last 6 meetings.
- Getafe are unbeaten in their last 5 (W2, D3).
- Getafe have conceded 13 in 17-best record in the league.
- Lionel Messi has scored 15 of 48 Barcelona goals and has the most G+A’s in the league with 25, next best is Luis Suarez with 15.
- Barcelona have kept 4 clean sheets in a row.
- U2.5 in all of Getafe’s games apart from 2.
- O2.5 in 11/17 Barcelona games.
- Getafe have the 2nd most yellow cards in La Liga with 51.
- Getafe 7/1
- Draw 4/1
- Barcelona 2/5
On paper, this should be a really difficult game for Barcelona against the league’s best defence statistically and also the potential for winter-break rustiness. Nevertheless, it’s tough to bet against this Barcelona attack with the GOAT amongst its ranks along with the fact that Getafe have struggled in front of goal this season, scoring just 18 league goals. Barcelona’s defence improved considerably prior to the winter break and I’m backing them to make it 5 clean sheets in a row.
Getafe have the 2nd worst disciplinary record in the league with 51 bookings and 3 red cards. This stat along with the recent history of this fixture where there were 11 cards in the two league games between these sides last season has convinced me to go down the bookings route for this one. To make this bet even more tempting, I’m going to add it to a couple of other bets using the bet365 ‘Bet Builder’. I also like fancy a low number of corners on Sunday, especially for Getafe. The home side, on average, only get 4 corners a game (3rd lowest in the league) and they’ll struggle to get the ball off this Barcelona side. I’ll also add Barcelona to score more than 1 goal, well because they average 2.82 goals a game.