Italy v Portugal Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 17/11/18

Italy v Portugal Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Anthony Olsson (@Ant_olsson93) previews Italy v Portugal and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s UEFA Nations League clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Italy v Portugal Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 17/11/18
  • Time: 19:45
  • Venue: San Siro
  • Channel: Sky Sports Football

Italy host Portugal at the San Siro on Saturday looking to grab a win to stand any chance of progression in the UEFA Nations League. The Italians come into this match on the back of a 1-0 win against relegated Poland, that win was Mancini’s first in charge of Italy and his side will be looking to make it two wins in a row when Portugal visit on Saturday.

Portugal come into the game unbeaten in four and having won their last three fixtures in all competitions. They are the outsiders in this match though at 13/5 and they will also be without talisman, Cristiano Ronaldo, who is once again absent. Their underdog status in this match can probably be put down to Italy’s good recent record at home. The Azzuri are unbeaten in eleven home games (W4, D7) with all four of these victories accompanied by a clean sheet. That defensive stability could be put to the test against a Portugal side that have enjoyed themselves in front of goal on the road. They have hit the back of the net three times in each of their last two away games.

Italy haven’t been at their best in front of goal recently with only two goals across two games in the competition so far and they have only scored eight goals in the nine games that they have played so far this calendar year. They have surprisingly only scored more than 1 goal on one occasion this year when they ran out 2-1 winners against Saudi Arabia.  They could however find some joy in front of goal on Saturday as they face a Portugal side that have conceded at least one goal in four out of their last five away games. Both teams to score in this one is 21/20 (SportingBet) and I think this could be a good choice as we have two sides who aren’t afraid of attacking. Italy have averaged 12.7 shots per game in the tournament so far and we have Portugal who have averaged 15 shots per game.

Portugal’s last two away games have seen both sides find the back of the net and they have also ended with Portugal coming out on top. Portugal to win and both teams to score is a whopping 7/1 (Betfair) and I think that’s worth a punt considering Portugal aren’t great at the back having conceded six goals in their last four games, but they have scored eight with six of them coming on the road.

Team News

Portugal will be without Andre Gomes will be unavailable due to a bruised leg and Cristiano Ronaldo is also not involved with the squad.

Italy have been dealt a late injury blow with Juventus attacker Federico Bernardeschi pulling out with an adductor problem. Leonardo Pavoletti could be ruled out for the game with a muscle injury.

Potential Italy Starting XI: Donnarumma, Florenzi, Bonucci, Chiellini, Biraghi, Barella, Jorginho, Verratti, Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne

Potential Portugal Starting XI:  Patrico, Cancelo, Pepe, Fonte, Rui, B.Silva, Pizzi, Neves, Carvalho, Guedes, A.Silva

Head To Head

  • Italy had been on an impressive 10 game unbeaten run against Portugal from 1980- 2008 but since then Portugal have won the last two meetings between the sides.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Each of Italy’s last five games have produced under 2.5 goals.
  • Five of Portugal’s last six matches have seen both teams score.

Betting Odds

  • Italy 5/4
  • Draw 13/5
  • Portugal 13/5

The Verdict

This is not the heavyweight clash it once was but these two sides should be able to provide an entertaining game for the viewer. I fancy Portugal to continue their good form and overcome an Italy side that is on the long road back to the top.

Recommended Bets

  • Both teams to score 21/20 (SportingBet)
  • Portugal to win and both teams to score 7/1 (Betfair)