Man City v Arsenal Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 03/02/19
James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews Manchester City v Arsenal and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s Premier League clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +1.66pts
Manchester City v Arsenal Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 03/02/19
- Time: 16:30
- Venue: Etihad Stadium
- Channel: Sky Sports
Pep Guardiola will be looking for his City side to bounce-back from their detrimental defeat at Newcastle in mid-week when they take on Arsenal at the Etihad on Sunday afternoon.
League-leaders Liverpool missed a golden chance to extend the lead at the top to 7 points as they were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Leicester the following day.
Second-half goals from Salomon Rondon and Matt Ritchie on Tuesday night summoned City to their 4th defeat of the season already and meant that City had now lost 3 of its last 7 PL games when they had scored first.
There’s no doubt that, even when they have won in recent weeks, City have recently been lacking that fluidity in the final third that we are so accustomed to seeing with Guardiola teams. Many sides, like Newcastle, even though they went 1-0 down inside a minute, are quite happy for City to have the ball and the lack of quality in possession in some games this season, especially in the second third of the pitch, has certainly left them vulnerable to counter-attacks.
This could be seen as either a great or a terrible time to play City. The former because they have been on a very patchy run of form since the end of 2018 with their vulnerabilities very much on display but also the latter because, well I’m sure Guardiola isn’t a very happy man right now.
Unai Emery’s side have also endured a rather patchy run of form, beating Chelsea and Cardiff in their last two PL outings but also getting outplayed by United at the Emirates in the FA Cup 4th round in-between those fixtures.
Injuries have certainly not been kind for Emery this season, especially in his defence. Hector Bellerin, who was having a quietly good season at right-back is out for the long-haul whilst summer-signing Sokratis, who certainly looks clumsy and brainless on occasions, has also proven to be a stout defender in a number of games for the Gunners. He will also be out for this one. With the likes of Shkodran Mustafi and Sead Kolasinac in their potential defence on Sunday, we could see some goals shipped at the Arsenal end.
Arsenal were quite active in the transfer window, pursuing an average Yannick Carrasco as well as Ivan Perisic to fill the void that will be left by Aaron Ramsey and potentially Mesut Ozil in the summer. However, they weren’t able to get that ‘bigger name’ into the club and instead settled for Barcelona’s Denis Suarez. I know it’s a ‘risk-free’ signing with the deal being a loan with the option to buy but I do question how much of an impact the Spaniard will make.
Suarez is a versatile midfielder who can play centrally or out wide in more advanced roles, but with his lack of size, strength, power and speed, he’ll struggle to play as an effective CM in the PL. I doubt he’ll also be able to have the same impact in advanced roles compared to Ramsey and on occasions Ozil. He’s neat and tidy on the ball with the ability to create and open up defences but his goals and assists output would suggest he struggles to do it consistently (110 games, 9 goals, 16 assists). In the summer, Arsenal would certainly need an attacking midfielder that can match the goal and assist output of Ramsey and Ozil.
City captain Vincent Kompany is set to miss out for an eighth consecutive game whilst Benjamin Mendy is once again a doubt due to a minor knee issue he’s picked up since his return.
Arsenal have been hit with a number of injuries over recent weeks. Sokratis, Danny Welbeck, Hector Bellerin and Rob Holding remain out with Henrikh Mkhitaryan nearing a return from a long-term foot issue. On a positive note, Laurent Koscielny could start on Sunday after fully recovering from a jaw injury he picked up against Chelsea two weeks ago. Also, January loan signing Denis Suarez could make his full debut this weekend.
Potential Man City Starting XI: Ederson, Walker, Stones, Laporte, Delph, Fernandinho, B.Silva, D.Silva, Sterling, Aguero, Sane.
Potential Arsenal Starting XI: Leno, Maitland-Niles, Koscielny, Mustafi, Kolasinac, Xhaka, Torreira, Aubameyang, Ramsey, Suarez, Lacazette.
Head To Head
- All-time: Man City-54, Draw-45, Arsenal-96.
- Arsenal have lost the last four meetings in all competitions, conceding 11 goals and scoring just one.
Key Stats & Facts
- City have won their previous five home games in league and cup, and have scored 24 unanswered goals in their last four matches at the Etihad Stadium.
- The home side have dropped 16 points already this season, two more than they did in total last term.
- Pep Guardiola is unbeaten in 11 games as a manager against Unai Emery (W7, D4).
- City have three players on 17 G+A’s so far this season: Sergio Aguero- 11G’s, 6A’s, Raheem Sterling-10G’S, 7A’s and Leroy Sane- 8G’S, 9A’s.
- Arsenal are winless in their last 20 league games away to the other sides in the established top six since a 2-0 win at the Etihad Stadium in January 2015, and have lost 10 of their last 12 such fixtures.
- Arsenal haven’t won away from home since their 2-1 win at Bournemouth back in November, since then they have D2, L3 on the road.
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the PL’s 2nd top scorer with 15 goals, behind only Mo Salah (16).
- Arsenal are the biggest overachievers in front of goal so far this season, they have an xG of 40.28 but have scored 50 goals. The 9.72 difference is the largest in the league.
- BTTS in 18/24 Arsenal games, 13/24 in City games.
- Man City 3/10
- Draw 11/2
- Arsenal 8/1
I think City have the potential to win comfortably here. With City at the short 3/10 to win, I’m going to back City to win and BTTS. Both sides have defensive frailties as well as some firepower going forward. City’s usual front three in Sane, Aguero and Sterling have 29 PL goals between them and they should be way too much for a weakened Arsenal backline. Arsenal’s tally of 50 PL goals is the joint-third best record in the league, their xG has proven them to be clinical in front of goal this season, something they’ll have to be if they are to get something from the Etihad. City winning and both teams scoring has come in 9 times this season (just in PL).
Another bet I like the look of is City to be leading after 30 minutes. They have proven to be goal-hungry at the Etihad this season, scoring 40 in 12 league games. In these 12 games, they have scored 14 goals in the opening 30 minutes. I’m confident City will score in the opening 30 on Sunday, the question is whether the defence can hold off Aubameyang, Ramsey and Lacazette in the opening stages.