Man City v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 03/01/19

Man City v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Chris Millas (@ChrisMMillas) previews Man City v Liverpool and provides us with his best bets for Thursday’s Premier League showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Manchester City v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 03/01/19
  • Time: 20:00
  • Venue: Etihad Stadium
  • Channel: Sky Sports

Arguably the biggest game of the season takes place on Thursday evening as Premier League holders Man City welcome title challengers Liverpool to The Etihad Stadium.

The Citizens bounced back from two successive defeats during the Christmas period to Crystal Palace (2-3) and Leicester (1-0) with a 3-1 win away to Southampton on Sunday.

Pep Guardiola’s side, who currently sit third in the table, 7 points behind their opponents, have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 outings in all competitions, including 7 in the Premier League.

Many are saying this is a must-win game for Man City. What is for sure is that defeat will most likely end their chances of maintaining their status as Champions come the end of the season.

Meanwhile, Liverpool won all 7 of their league games in December, an extremely impressive feat, and are on a run of 9 successive wins overall which stretches back to November. Moreover, they are yet to taste defeat in the Premier League this season

The Reds have kept more clean sheets (12) than any other side and have restricted their opponents to just 163 shots all season (an average of 8.15 per game) – ironically, only Man City possess a better record.

Interestingly, Jurgen Klopp boasts a stronger H2H against his opposite number, with 8 wins to Guardiola’s 5. There has been just 2 draws between the two managers.

Team News

Kevin De Bruyne, Benjamin Mendy and Ilkay Gündogan are all doubts for Man City. Fabian Delph is suspended.

Joseph Gomez and Joel Matip are out for Liverpool. James Milner is a doubt. Alex Oxlade Chamberlain is still recovering from a long-term injury.

Potential Man City Starting XI: Ederson, Laporte, Kompany, Stones, Walker, Silva, Fernandinho, Silva, Sané, Agüero, Sterling

Potential Liverpool Starting XI: Alisson, Robertson, Dijk, Lovren, Alexander-Arnold, Keita, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Mané, Firmino, Salah

Head To Head

  • Man City 43
  • Draws 42
  • Liverpool 79

Key Stats & Facts

  • Man City have won their opening Premier League game of a calendar year in 11 of the past 12 seasons.
  • Pep Guardiola has never suffered successive top-flight home defeats as a manager.
  • Liverpool have won just 5 of their last 17 games in all competitions in January (W5-D5-L7).
  • Liverpool have won just 1 of their last 10 Premier League away matches against the ‘big 6’ (W1-D5-L4).

Betting Odds

  • Man City 21/20
  • Draw 14/5
  • Liverpool 13/5

The Verdict

Bookmakers clearly aren’t respecting Liverpool enough in my opinion, particularly considering their record against Man City over recent years and the fact that they are a much better and more shrewd side compared to previous seasons.

To put things into perspective, Liverpool’s last 3 wins over Man City, which have come in the last 4 meetings in all competitions, have been priced at 19/10 (at home), 21/10 (at home) and 5/1 (away) – so they clearly relish being underdogs.

Whilst I am reluctant to take on Man City at around 11/10, I do not want to be backing against them either. With that in mind, I’m keen to avoid the outright markets here.

Instead, I will focus on cards and an anytime goalscorer fancy.

Admittedly, Man City (1.15) and Liverpool (0.95) rank in the bottom two for cards per game this season.

However, there has been an average of 5.16 cards in the last 6 meetings between the two sides in all competitions. Over 4.5 Cards is available at 7/5 and with so much at stake and with the pace and skill that both sides possess, I think that represents real value.

Elsewhere, Sergio Agüero is a man that loves the big occasions. He was on the score sheet during the win against Southampton on Sunday and will be vital if Man City are to get a result against Liverpool.

Furthermore, the Argentinian has scored in all 6 games against Liverpool at The Etihad. He is also likely to be on penalty duty so at 13/10, I’m more than happy to back him to make it 7 in 7 on Thursday.

Recommended Bets

  • Over 4.5 Cards @ 7/5 (888Sport)
  • Sergio Aguero To Score Anytime @ 13/10 (Betway)