Man City v Wolves Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 14/01/19

  • 12th January 2019
Manchester City v Wolves Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews Manchester City v Wolverhampton Wanderers and provides us with his best bets for Monday night’s Premier League clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Manchester City v Wolves Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 14/01/19
  • Time: 20:00
  • Venue: Etihad Stadium
  • Channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Pep Guardiola will be looking to sustain the pressure on league leaders Liverpool as they take on a very dangerous Wolves side on Monday night.

It’s been a successful past couple of weeks for Manchester City after losing back-to-back PL games at the end of 2018. Since their Boxing Day loss at Leicester, City have won both of their PL games including a vital 2-1 win at home to Liverpool, trimming their lead at the top to 4 points. They have also won both cup games to start the year by an aggregate score of 16-0, progressing through to the 4th round of the FA Cup and are 99.9999999…% sure of a Carabao Cup final.

They’ll be hoping that Brighton will be able to do them a favour this weekend as they take on a depleted Liverpool side on Saturday afternoon.

The task in front of City on Monday night is by no means an easy one. Nuno Espirito Santo has got his Wolves side playing with absolutely no fear, sticking with his 3 at the back system for every PL game so far this season. A decision that has certainly paid off with his newly promoted side sitting comfortably in 9th and they have already beaten the likes of Spurs and Chelsea along with draws against Arsenal at the Emirates and City in the reverse fixture earlier in the campaign.

Their counter-attacking style has undoubtedly been successful against the big boys this season, however, Wolves have been struggling to beat teams that deploy a deeper block against them. The two games I remember being the Huddersfield game at Molineux back in November and more recently against Crystal Palace, matches where Wolves struggled to create anything and were dealt two sucker-punches in both games. Fortunately, this game suits Wolves massively with City needing all 3 points in order to maintain a title challenge. I expect Wolves to create some problems on the break against a defence that hasn’t kept a home clean-sheet since October. I have no doubt the attacking emphasis for Wolves will be to get Helder Costa or Adama Traore on the ball as much as possible and getting them running 1v1 against Fabian Delph.

For City I think the key is Fernandinho in the middle of the park. His performance against Liverpool was the best I’ve seen by a central-midfielder all season and the Brazilian will be key when it comes to breaking up Wolves counter-attacks. I also expect Guardiola to pick Bernardo rather than David Silva due to the former’s sheer work ethic which will also be key in preventing Wolves from countering. The Portuguese midfielder covered 13.7km, the most by an individual player this season, in their win against Liverpool.

Team News

Man City look to be close to full strength for this one. Sergio Aguero is back in contention after missing the last two games due to illness whilst Kevin De Bruyne started both of City’s recent cup ties. The only long-term absentees for Guardiola are left-back Benjamin Mendy and 2nd string goalkeeper Claudio Bravo.

Nuno Espirito Santo will have a full squad available for Monday night.

Potential Man City Starting XI: Ederson, Walker, Stones, Laporte, Delph, Fernandinho, De Bruyne, B. Silva, Sterling, Aguero, Sane.

Potential Wolves Starting XI: Patricio, Doherty, Bennett, Coady, Boly, Jonny, Neves, Moutinho, Costa, Cavaliero, Jimenez.

Head To Head

  • All time: Man City-47, Draw-25, Wolves-46.
  • Man City only won 5/9 meetings in the PL (D2, L2), dating back to 2003.
  • Reverse fixture at Molineux ended 1-1.

Key Stats & Facts

  • The 3-2 defeat to Crystal Palace was the only time City have dropped points at the Etihad all season (in PL).
  • City have scored 2+ goals in 16/21 PL fixtures this season and are the highest scorers in the league with 56, 7 more than next best Liverpool.
  • Wolves are the second greatest underachievers in front of goal this season. Their xG= 27.25, but have scored only 23.
  • Raheem Sterling’s combination of 9 goals and 7 assists is the third highest in the league, only behind Mo Salah (13G’s, 7A’s) and Eden Hazard (10G’s, 9A’s).
  • Three City players are in the top-10 in the league for assists; Leroy Sane-7, Raheem Sterling-7, Bernardo Silva-6.
  • In the 3 games Wolves have played against the top 6 so far this season, they are unbeaten (D2,W1).
  • Summer signing Raul Jimenez is the away sides top scorer with 6 in the PL.
  • Wolves have failed to score in only 2/10 away games so far this season.
  • Wolves have conceded only 25 goals this season, the best record for teams 8th and below.
  • Man City BTTS and win has hit once in every 3 games on average.

Betting Odds

  • Man City 2/11
  • Draw 7/1
  • Wolves 13/1

The Verdict

I can see Wolves getting plenty of chances to counter-attack and create opportunities on Monday night. Their defence, which is the 6th best in the league statistically, should be able to hold their own for the most part against a prolific City attack and give their dangerous forwards a chance to counter on several occasions.

Although Wolves have an impressive record against the top 6 this season, City should pull this one through with a relatively comfortable victory. This City side seem to have got their swagger back over the past 2 weeks. Their performance against Liverpool was gritty and showed tremendous character, with the confidence they got from that result showing in their next two games (7-0, 9-0), albeit against lowly opposition. I like the look of a City win and BTTS with City’s poor defensive record at home (no clean sheet in last 6 home games) giving me confidence that this Wolves side will get on the score sheet, something the away side have done in 8/10 games on the road this season.

I fancy goals in this one and I think we may get a one from the boot of Leroy Sane. The German netted the winner against their title-rivals and has scored and set two up in the 90-odd minutes he’s played since. His confidence is sky-high right now and the fact he was brought off on Wednesday gives me the impression that he’ll start on Monday. Expect the likes of Sane and Sterling to get plenty of chances with Wolves’ compact back three making life hard for Aguero/Jesus. I’m backing the German to add to his 7 PL goal tally on Monday night.

I’m also looking at Fernandinho to be carded in this one. The counter-attacking nature of this Wolves side means that the 33-year old is a massive candidate to pick up a cynical booking. Moreover, there’s no doubt the Brazilian is one of the most under-booked players in the league with only 4 bookings in all comps (2PL, 2CL). I would also be tempted to put on Delph at 13/2 due to the pace he’s likely to come up against in the likes of Adama Traore and Helder Costa.

Recommended Bets

  • Leroy Sane to score – 6/5 (SkyBet)
  • Fernandinho to be carded – 9/2 (William Hill)
  • City to win and BTTS – 2/1 (Ladbrokes)