Middlesbrough v Derby Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 27/10/18
Tom Love (@TomLove_18) previews Middlesbrough v Derby and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s Championship early televised kick-off by analysing team news, potential line ups, head to head, key stats, facts and more.
Middlesbrough v Derby Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 27/10/18
- Time: 12:30pm
- Venue: Riverside Stadium
- Channel: SkySports Football
It’s 2nd vs 5th at the Riverside in the lunchtime kick off, it promises to be an intriguing clash of styles.
Middlesbrough have somewhat stalled in the last few weeks, winning just 2 of their last 6. That run included a home loss to Nottingham Forest and a home draw to Rotherham midweek. I’ve mentioned in the past that Tony Pulis’ style is more suited to games on the road where the pressure is somewhat off. When they’re at home they sometimes struggle to display the craft and creativity in the final third to hurt teams.
Fans of the Boro may want more of an attacking set up here but it’s just not Pulis’ modus operandi, if he does go two up top he may bring in the rangy Rudy Gestede after a decent cameo off the bench on Tuesday night. This will be one of the toughest tests for their usually watertight defence.
Derby are in fine form at the minute and have impressively dispatched two decent teams in Sheffield United and West Brom recently. Their 4-2-3-1 formation is working wonders and they’ve finally managed to shoehorn big money man Jack Marriott into the side up top. His movement and predatory instincts in the 18 yard box gives the Rams another dimension and his supporting cast is one of the best in the division.
I think if Frank Lampard’s men go into this one and play to their strengths then they have a good chance because ‘Boro seldom pose an attacking threat. If they can go to West Brom and score 4 goals then you’d think they’ll go into this with confidence. However, it’s a rarity for any teams to get good quality chances against the Teeside outfit.
Craig Bryson, Ikechi Anya and George Evans remain our for Derby.
Ryan Shotton is out for the hosts so Sam McQueen may slot into the full back role.
Potential Middlesbrough Starting XI: Randolph, McQueen, Flint, Ayala, Fry, Friend, Clayton, Saville, Besic, Assombalonga, Gestede.
Potential Derby Starting XI: Carson, Bogle, Keogh, Tomori, Malone, Huddleston, Johnson, Wilson, Mount, Lawrence, Marriott.
Key Stats & Facts
- Middlesbrough have failed to score in their last 3 home games.
- There have been under 2.5 goals in 11 of Middlesbrough’s last 12 games.
- Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 7 Championship fixtures.
- Middlesbrough – 23/20
- Draw – 23/10
- Derby – 3/1
Middlesbrough look difficult to back at near even-money quotes, they fail to fully convince in the final third. However, their defensive record is outstanding so it’s hard to get against them.
The only game to go over 2.5 goals in ‘Boro’s last 12 was away to Sheffield Wednesday and one of those goals came from a poor Tom Lees mistake, another from a wonder strike from Adam Reach. Backing against goals has been the go-to bet for the Reds this season.
Despite their good form Derby rank 12th in the xG standings, some long range strikes have helped them climb the table. Alternatively, Boro are 4th in the same metric giving up just 0.8 xG a game.
I’m going to stick with the low scoring theme and back the even-money available on Middlesbrough double chance and under 2.5 goals using Bet365’s BetBuilder feature. This specific bet would’ve landed in 8 of Middlesbrough’s last 11 fixtures.
I’m also going to delve into the card market and it’s Adam Clayton (11/4) that I’ve got my eye on. The former Huddersfield man has been cautioned 6 times already this season and as a defensive midfielder he will be charged with keeping tabs on Wilson, Mount and Lawrence, all fast players who like to interchange. I’d have him favourite in the player card market but there’s 6 other players at shorter prices than him, it looks like a value play to me.