Josh Waudby (@Josh_Waudby) previews Napoli v Cagliari and provides us with his best bets for this Serie A match by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +6.55pts

Napoli v Cagliari Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 05/05/2019
  • Time: 19:30
  • Venue: Stadio San Paolo
  • Channel: Premier Sports

Napoli are all but there in terms of securing a Champions League spot. They sit 12 points clear of 5th place Roma, and with 4 games left and a hugely superior goal difference the side have very little to play for. Of course, they still want to finish in the second spot, which they currently hold an 8 point lead over Inter, and with the pair set to meet on the penultimate week of the season it definitely could be a classic.

Cagliari are in almost the identical position but in reverse. They sit in 11th place currently 11 points above 18th place Empoli, therefore, to get dragged down to the Serie B they would have to lose all 4 remaining games, and not only that Empoli would also have to muster up 4 wins from 4 which is close to impossible. Cagliari’s problems start with goals, the side currently sit 17th out of 20 on goals scored, and their striker Pavoletti has 12 of those 32. Between the front two they have 19 goals together, which means the remaining squad member have only managed to get 13 goals between them in 34 games which really highlights what is going wrong.

In all honesty it is another below par season for Napoli. They were knocked out with zero class against Arsenal in two terrible performances both home and away. Not only that but they also sit 18 points behind Juventus, which although was always going to be a difficult task to stay close, it is a rather large gap. Napoli would struggle to keep a hold of many of their sought after players in the summer window such as Koulibaly and Insigne as the side are having another trophy-less season once again.

Team News

Napoli will possible be without Romanian defender Chiriches as he still continues to have a should issue. Their versatile youngster Diawara is also not expected to return in time for the game.

Cagliari’s only injury is to midfielder Lucas Castro, who has been out since before the Christmas break.

Potential Napoli Starting XI: Ospina, Hysaj, Koulibaly, Luperto, Ghoulam, Callejon, Ruiz, Zielinski, Younes, Milik, Mertens

Potential Cagliari Starting XI: Cragno, Srna, Ceppitelli, Klavan, Lykogiannis, Farago, Cigrini, Ionita, Birsa, Joao Pedro, Pavoletti

Head To Head

  • Napoli have a fantastic record over Cagliari, in fact they haven’t lost to them for over 10 years.
  • Napoli have won the last 6 in a row, 3 at home and 3 away.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Napoli have been leading by half time in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Cagliari at home.
  • Mertens has scored first in 3 of Napoli’s last 4 games.
  • Cagliari have conceded inside 15 minutes in all 3 of their last away matches against the top 5.

Betting Odds

  • Napoli 1/4
  • Draw 21/4
  • Cagliari 10/1

The Verdict

It is clear that the stats and the footballing mind side with the home side, the problem is getting the value out of the poor 1/4 outright price. Napoli have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 games and given they now have even less to play for its likely the foot could be off the gas. A home win and both teams to score is priced up at 9/5 and given Napoli’s real inability to keep a clean sheet, aswell as they're likelihood of winning it looks a great play.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Napoli win and BTTS – 9/5 (Coral, Betway)