Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Napoli vs Liverpool and provides us with his best bets for Tuesday night’s Champions League clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

• 2019 Profit & Loss: -2pts

Napoli v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

• Date: 17/09/19
• Time: 20:00
• Venue: Stadio San Paolo
• Channel: BT Sport

The Champions League group stage gets underway on Tuesday evening and the reigning champions, Liverpool (it’s nice to say that!), begin their defence of the title away in Naples against Carlo Ancelotti’s Napoli.

The Reds have made a perfect start to the season, sitting top of the Premier League with five wins from five and a healthy advantage over second-placed Man City. They have scored 15 goals in the league so far, another two in the Super Cup win over Chelsea, averaging a tidy three GPG. The front three are bang in form and they will be looking to take that form into Europe.

As for the home side, Napoli have begun their league campaign with two wins from three, also averaging three GPG. They came from 3-0 down to level at 3-3 against Juve in their toughest test so far, only for a Koulibaly own-goal in stoppage time to leave them empty-handed.

In Dries Mertens, Lorenzo Insigne and Piotr Zielinksi, Napoli possess a frighteningly good attack and then they have Hirving Lozano on the bench to make an impact. Napoli caused Liverpool all sorts of problems last year in those two games and Napoli also beat Klopps’ men in pre-season 3-0, where Insigne was a major issue for the Liverpool defence.

With the amount of goals both sides are scoring and the attacking quality on display, I think there will be goals.

Team News

Napoli rested a number of key players at the weekend. The likes of Manolas, Ghoulam, Allan and Insigne all started on the bench in the 2-0 win over Sampdoria. Ancelotti is expected to recall all of those for this tie. Arkadiusz Milik remains unavailable as he deals with another injury problem.

Andy Robertson missed training on Monday so he looks to be a doubt and might not be risked with Chelsea coming up at the weekend. Divock Origi came off during the 3-1 win over Newcastle on Sunday and looks to be out of contention, as does Alisson in goal, who is continuing his recovery from injury.

Jurgen Klopp could well make a few changes to freshen up the side, with the likes of Milner and Henderson likely to be included.

Potential Napoli Starting XI: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Manolas, Koulibaly, Ghoulam; Callejon, Zielinksi, Allan, Insigne; Ruiz; Mertens

Potential Liverpool Starting XI: Adrian; Gomez, Lovren, Van Dijk, Milner; Oxlade-Chamberlain, Henderson, Wijnaldum; Salah, Firmino, Mane

Head To Head

These two met in last season’s group stage and both sides won their home game. One goal in each game was enough to settle it but Liverpool were threatened by the Italian side in both games. Liverpool lead the H2H, however, winning three games to Napoli’s two with one draw.

Key Stats & Facts

• Liverpool lost four of their six away games in the Champions league last season, conceding nine goals and failed to score in three of them.
• Both teams are averaging three goals a game this season. Napoli have scored nine goals in their opening three league games, whilst Liverpool have scored 15 in their opening five league games.
• Napoli did not lose a game at home in the Champions League last season.

Betting Odds

• Napoli – 21/10
• Draw – 13/5
• Liverpool – 11/8

The Verdict

I am expecting a reverse of how these games went last season. Both games finished 1-0 but given how many goals have been scored in their respective games in the league this season, I am more inclined to back goals.

Napoli have scored nine in their three games so far this season, including four against Fiorentina and three against Juventus. Mertens has already bagged three, including two in the weekend’s 2-0 win over Sampdoria. Insigne has two in three and scored twice in the pre-season win over Liverpool, so he will be backing himself to score again here.

As for Liverpool, they are also scoring for fun. Another three at the weekend made it fifteen in five games and Sadio Mane now has six goals in his six games so far this season (including two in the Super Cup). Mo Salah has four league goals as well and when you add Roberto Firmino, the player who links it all together, you may well have, arguably, the best attack in Europe.

Liverpool’s away record in Europe last year makes it a bit risky to back them at 11/8 and Napoli do appeal at the price of 21/10 but defensively they have been less than assured, having already conceded seven goals in three matches.

Therefore, I am going to back goals from two players. Mertens and Mane are in great goal-scoring form and at 10/1 for them both to get on the score-sheet, I think that is a price not to be missed with SkyBet’s price boost.