Josh Waudby (@Josh_Waudby) previews Netherlands v Germany and provides us with his best bets for by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +14.1pts

Netherlands v Germany Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 24/03/2019
  • Time: 19:45
  • Venue: Amsterdam Arena
  • Channel: Sky Sports Mix

It’s fair to say that these two teams are in completely opposite circumstances. Netherlands are recovering from what can only be described as a very poor few years for them. Coming 3rd in the World Cup in 2014 then led to consecutive championships which they didn’t even qualify for, however in most recent times they have looked a lot better. Germany however are still struggling to recover from their recent form. They’ve gone from winning the world cup in 2014 and its been a downward spiral from there. The 2018 world cup saw them finish in their worst position ever, not even qualifying from the group stages and only wining 1 game.

Koeman is looking to return Netherlands back to their glory days. They have an influx of young players coming through such as De Ligt, De Jong and Bergwijn aswell as many of their slightly older players hitting their prime, such as Van Dijk, Wijnaldum, Depay and the veteran Daley Blind. Netherlands fans should be optimistic with the period the national side is coming into, as approaching the Euro’s and World cup they will come into it much stronger contenders than the previous competitions.

Germany probably regret giving Löw such a long contract, as he repaid them with Germanys worst ever performance at a World Cup. Given it isn’t all down to a manager, however it is likely that if he didn’t have a contract with such length he could possibly have been axed straight after. Now it is time for Germany to rebuild and have faith back in the youth. Löw has put a lot of emphasis on youth in the last few weeks by making huge changes to the squad, which will no longer see Thomas Muller, Jerome Boateng or Mats Hummels included. He has also switched up his system and seems more likely to try a 3 at the back formation, utilizing the wing backs for defence and attack. Although they are in a sticky period it would be a huge shock if they weren’t back at the top by the time the European Championship kick starts in 2020, of course providing they qualify.

Team News

Ronald Koeman’s men have almost a full squad, Kenny Tete is the only withdrawn injury who has been replaced in the squad by Atlanta’s Hans Hateboer, however it is possible that their second right back Dumfries could also miss the game after a slight injury from their match against Belarus.

Joachim Löw recently made a very public statement of how Boateng, Muller and Hummels would no longer be part of the German national side, hinting that he is heading for a more youthful outlook from now. It did create quite the stir up and judging by the reactions of the players it definitely didn’t go down well.

Potential Netherlands Starting XI: Cillissen, Blind, Van Dijk, De Ligt, Hateboer, De Jong, Wijmaldum, Propper, Promes, Depay, Babel

Potential Germany Starting XI: Neuer, Rudiger, Tah, Sule, Schulz, Klostermann, Kroos, Kimmich, Brandt, Werner, Sane

Head To Head

  • The pair have met 10 times over the last 20 years. Holland have won 3, Germany won 2 and they’ve played out 5 draws.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Netherlands haven’t failed to score since exactly a year ago to the day, in a 1-0 defeat to England.
  • Germany have only 1 win in their last 5 games, and only 3 in their last 10.

Betting Odds

  • Netherlands 8/5
  • Draw 23/10
  • Germany 8/5

The Verdict

The odds really do illustrate exactly what I expect from this game. The fact both sides are the same odds shows how close the pair are at the moment in quality. Holland already have a head start in their Euro’s group after their 4-0 demolition of Belarus, however the same can’t be said for Germany who struggled to gain a 1-1 draw in their friendly against Serbia.

Given half of the last 10 games these sides have played out have ended as a draw, and how closely matched the squads and the odds are the draw looks a well backed statistical play. Both sides show their ability to score goals, especially Netherlands who haven’t been held goalless for a year, there is little chance of this finishing 0-0, therefore a score draw looks a very viable play at the odds. The two also played out a 2-2 draw in the final game of the UEFA Nations League, which saw Netherlands qualify for the finals.

Van Dijk has 2 goals in his last two games for the Netherlands, and I would be surprised if any of the German defenders could cope with his sheer height and strength. He also has 3 goals in his last 5 games for Liverpool including a brace against Watford, so he is in prime goal scoring form for a center half. He has 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 6 games for club and country, with 3 clean sheets also so it’s reasonable to say he will be flowing with confidence.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts Both teams to score and draw – 10/3 (Boyle Sports)
  • 0.5pt Van Dijk anytime goal scorer – 10/1 (Unibet, Betfair)