Newport v Leicester Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 06/01/19

Newport v Leicester Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Newport County vs Leicester City and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s FA Cup Round 3 clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Newport County v Leicester City Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 06/01/19
  • Time: 16:30
  • Venue: Rodney Parade
  • Channel: N/A

12th placed League Two side, Newport County, host Premier League outfit, Leicester City this weekend in the third round of the FA Cup.

The Welsh side came through their ‘Welsh Derby’ against Wrexham in their second-round replay 4-0 at home, after a 0-0 draw in North Wales. Their reward for that is a home tie against top-flight opposition, in Claude Puel’s Leicester City, as the Championship and Premier League sides enter the competition.

Newport County started their domestic campaign in impressive fashion, after winning seven of their opening 10 league matches, but have since gone on to win just three of their last 15. That stretch of poor results has seen them drop to 12th in League Two but their cup form does give them some hope.

County have lost just once in 90 minutes of football in the FA Cup in their last 15 matches and have not lost an FA Cup game at home since 2016. This includes beating Leeds United last season and drawing to Tottenham in the following round, showing that they do quite like the underdog status.

As for Leicester, they are in good form domestically and head into this game on the back of three wins in their last four league games, including wins over Chelsea, Manchester City and Everton. Claude Puel’s side sit in seventh place in the league and could be in with a chance of Europa League football, given one of the top 6 look likely to win the League Cup.

This competition could be a bit of an un-wanted distraction for most of the top six, so this looks like a very decent chance for Leicester to win some silverware.

Team News

Dan Butler will miss this tie through suspension, whilst Joss Labadie is a doubt for the Welsh side.

Wes Morgan has missed the last few games through illness but is expected to return to the side for this one. Claude Puel will no doubt make plenty of changes here, as he looks to rest some key players after a busy festive period.

Potential Newport Starting XI: Day; Franks, Demetriou, O’Brien; Pipe, Bakinson, Crofts, Sheehan, Pring; Amond, Matt

Potential Leicester Starting XI: Ward; Simpson, Morgan, Soyuncu, Fuchs; Choudhury, Ndidi, Silva; Albrighton, Iheanacho, Gray

Head To Head

  • This will be the first ever competitive meeting between the two sides.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Newport have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 FA Cup matches.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in six of Leicester’s last seven FA Cup games.
  • Newport are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 FA Cup matches.
  • Leicester are undefeated in their last 5 cup games.

Betting Odds

  • Newport – 10/1
  • Draw – 5/1
  • Leicester – 1/3

The Verdict

As I Have mentioned above, this is a competition Leicester should be looking at to go quite deep into, and it looks as if Puel will still field plenty of experienced first-team players. Albrighton, Gray, Ndidi an Silva are all expected to play, so you would fancy Leicester to have too much quality for Newport.

However, Newport’s home record speaks volumes in this competition over the last three years; W6 D1 L2, including the 2-1 win over Leeds last season and the 1-1 draw with Spurs. They have scored at least twice in six of those games but have only kept two clean sheets in those games, conceding eight in this period.

Leicester came unstuck against Fleetwood last season and I feel this game might be similar to that one. The Foxes drew that game 0-0 and under 2.5 goals has been a common theme for them in this competition since they came back to the Premier League, with 8 of their 14 FA Cup games going under that mark (excluding goals scored in extra-time).

I think Leicester have the quality in which to beat this Newport side, but feel that the Welsh side will give them a run for their money. With the technically gifted players the Foxes possess, I feel that Newport will try and rough them up a bit and I would certainly look at some of the Newport players to be carded when they are priced up once we know team news.

Leicester are too short to back in the winners market, but I think Leicester to win and under 3.5 goals looks the best way to go, give Newport are probably capable of holding them out for a lengthy amount of time. Under 2.5 could be a bit risky as there is always a chance Leicester could run away with it, so bumping it up to 3.5 looks a safe bet and is still at an odds-against price.

Recommended Bets

  • Leicester and under 3.5 goals – 13/10 (Betway)
  • Draw/Leicester (half-time/full-time) – 17/5 (BetVictor)