Norwich v Swansea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 08/03/19

Norwich v Swansea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Tom Love (@TomLove_18) previews Norwich v Swansea and provides us with his best bets for Friday night’s televised clash by analysing team news, potential line ups, head to head, key stats, facts and more.

  • Profit & Loss: -13.55pts

Norwich v Swansea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 08/03/19
  • Time: 19:45pm
  • Venue: Carrow Road
  • Channel: SkySports Football

Norwich are looking to increase their lead at the top of the table to 5 points, for a day at least with a win against the Swans on Friday night.

Daniel Farke’s side continue to steamroll the division, scoring plenty of goals whilst doing so. They’ve scored a mammoth 71 goals in 35 games, that’s a strong 2+ goals a game average and that ratio goes up when they’re at their Norfolk base. In their last 9 games at Carrow Road they’ve scored an insane 4,3,3,3,3,3,2,3,3.

The fluidity they play with is aesthetically pleasing and mighty effective. Their squad is made up of talented youth products and affordable imports who’ve gelled with admirable ease. Full backs Max Aarons and Jamal Lewis bomb up and down, they play with three central midfielders to not get dominated in the middle of the park. Wide attackers Emiliano Buendia and Onel Hernandez both provide different threats and are charged with supplying 24 goal top scorer Teemu Pukki.

Swansea are having a so-so season, I would give credit to Graham Potter on the whole given the circumstances he’s found himself in. Potter has had little finances to use in the transfer market and has lost players who haven’t been replaced. They’ve got some technically gifted young players at the Liberty though with the likes of George Byers, Oli McBurnie, Dan James and Bersant Celina.

Overall they’re a bit lightweight and struggle on the road when they’re on the back foot. It is arguably their toughest away game of the season and it’s hard to have faith in them given they’ve lost their last 3 away games.

Team News

Marko Vrancic And Alex Tettey are back in the fold for the Canaries. Only Matt Jarvis and Louis Thompson are unavailable.

Swansea are without centre half Joe Rodon and midfielder Leroy Fer.

Potential Norwich XI: Krul, Aarons, Zimmerman, Godfrey, Lewis, Trybull, Vrancic, Buendia, Stiepermann, Hernandez, Pukki.

Potential Swansea XI: Mulder, Naughton, Van Der Hoorn, Carter-Vickers, Roberts, Byers, Grimes, Dyer, Celina, James, McBurnie.

Key Stats & Facts

  • There have been over 2.5 goals in every one of Norwich’s last 9 home league fixtures.
  • Norwich themselves have scored 3+ goals in 8 of their last 9 home fixtures.
  • Norwich are undefeated in 21 of their last 23 games in the league.
  • Swansea have lost their last 3 away games.
  • Swansea have conceded 2+ in their last 3 away games.
  • Norwich are undefeated in their last 5 home games against Swansea.

Betting Odds

  • Norwich – 7/10
  • Draw – 16/5
  • Swansea – 4/1

The Verdict

Norwich have to be favoured here given the respective home/away records of the pair. 7/10 looks like a more than fair price on the hosts but I think it’s worth throwing in over 1 goal to garner an odds against quote of 21/20.

When Norwich win it’s usually in games with plenty of goals, particularly at home and particularly this year.

Swansea are averaging a card a game, which is one of the lowest in the division. They play possession based football and aren’t a dirty side when out of possession, they focus more on positioning. Also their main culprit for bookings, Leroy Fer, is out for this one.

Norwich are a bit more prevalent in the booking markets but are averaging under 2 cards per game. They also have much more to play for with them gunning for promotion, the bigger games with promotion rivals naturally have yielded more cards.

We can back under 3.5 asian cards at 19/20 with bet365 and that also looks worth a play. I was expecting this line to probably be at 3.0 given the stats. Basically 3 or less cards in the game and this is a winner. Using the asian cards route just gives you a bit more bang for your buck for exactly the same bet as the normal under 3.5 cards which is 5/6.

Recommended Bets

  • 3pts – Norwich to win and over 1 goal – 21/20 (Bet365-BetBuilder)
  • 1.5pts – Under 3.5 asian cards – 19/20 (Bet365)