PSG v Monaco Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 21/04/19

PSG v Monaco Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews PSG v AS Monaco and provides us with his best bets for by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +7.24pts

PSG v AS Monaco Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 21/04/19
  • Time: 20:00
  • Venue: Parc des Princes
  • Channel: BT Sport 1

PSG will have another chance to wrap up another Ligue 1 title on Sunday as they take on Monaco, who have simply had a season to forget.

After comfortably winning league in 2017 and finishing 2nd to PSG last season, many would’ve expected them to be challenging once more. However, the club’s inability to find sufficient replacements from that incredible side from two seasons ago has been a major factor in their demise. The likes of Bernardo Silva, Fabinho, Benjamin Mendy, Tiemoue Bakayoko and of course Kylian Mbappe are players that are going to be almost impossible to directly replace, but they certainly weren’t bold enough with their incomings. For example, they’ve brought in Nacer Chadli, ex-Rio Ave’s Pele, Jean-Eudes Aholou, Benjamin Henrichs and Aleksandr Golovin, who was impressive for Russia in last year’s world cup.

Their investment in young, but ultimately average talent has put them in the position they’re in, along with the fact that they’re still relying on a 33-year-old striker in Radamel  Falcao to score all their goals, which he has pretty much done. Going forward this season, Monaco have been nothing short of woeful. They’ve scored just 31 times in 32 league games, with Falcao being the only player to hit 6+ league goals this season. There is absolutely no comparison between ‘18/19 Monaco’ and ‘16/17 Monaco’, with the latter scoring an incredible 107 goals in that fantastic season. They were still able to muster 85 goals last season as well, which really shows the sharp decline of this side.

The manager carousel at the club certainly hasn’t helped this season. Leanardo Jardim, who oversaw that 2016/17 season, was sacked back in October with Monaco in 18th. He was replaced by Thierry Henry who only lasted 3 months, overseeing just 5 wins in all competitions and failing to get Monaco out of the relegation zone. Henry, of course, was replaced by… guess who…  Jardim, with many feeling his original sacking was unjustified despite their poor early season form. Since Jardim’s return, Monaco’s form has dramatically improved, winning four, including wins against Lille and Lyon, drawing 5 and losing just once.

Despite this upturn in form, Monaco are still in some danger of what would be a shocking relegation. They currently sit in 16th, but just four points ahead of 18th, albeit with a game in hand. Nevertheless, a loss in Paris on Sunday will certainly create some tension among Monaco fans going into the last 5 games of the season.

Unless PSG have the most dramatic collapse of all-time, the Parisians will add to their 5 Ligue 1 titles this decade with just one more win required to pip Lille to the title, Lille being a close 17 points behind (and that’s after Lille swept aside the leaders in a 5-1 victory last week).

Despite yet another title, failure in the Champions League means this is another disappointing season for Thomas Tuchel’s men. After spending over £320m on just two players, Champions League success is certainly the expectation. However, after beating Manchester United 2-0 at Old Trafford in the first leg of the last 16, they succumbed to a 3-1 defeat at home, despite United missing a number of key players. Their persistent failure in Europe’s premier competition will haunt this club for years to come.

Injuries to Neymar and Edinson Cavani didn’t help of course; these are two elite footballers with the former certainly being a candidate for a future Balon d’Or win. But, when you have the likes of Mbappe, Silva, Verratti, Di Maria, Draxler and Marquinhos in your ranks, there’s no excuse why they shouldn’t be seen on the level of the Madrid’s, Barca’s, Bayern’s and Juve’s.

Team News 

Two of PSG’s centre-backs, Marquinhos and Thiago Silva, are doubts for this fixture whilst Thomas Meunier and Edinson Cavani are ruled out. It has been reported that Neymar, who has been out since the end of January, is back in contention to at least make the bench on Sunday.

Djibril Sidibe and Pele are out for the away side due to suspension whilst Cesc Fabregas, William Guebbels and Stevan Jovetic are likely out for this one. Spurs loanee Georges-Kevin N’Koudou is back in training after picking up a hamstring injury.

Potential PSG Starting XI: Buffon, Alves, Kehrer, Kimpembe, Bernat, Verratti, Nkunku, Paredes, Draxler, Di Maria, Mbappe.

Potential Monaco Starting XI: Subasic, Henrichs, Glik, Jemerson, Toure, Aholou, Silva, Martins, Golovin, Lopes, Falcao.

Head To Head

  • Since 2010, Monaco have beaten PSG just twice in all competitions, both those wins coming in their 2016/17 title-winning campaign.
  • The reverse fixture ended in a 4-0 win for PSG and they also beat Monaco by the same scoreline in the Trophee des Champions in pre-season.

Key Stats & Facts

  • PSG have lost twice in a row, making up 2 of their 3 domestic losses this season.
  • PSG’s goal tally of 92 is 37 better than the next highest- Lyon with 55.
  • Comparing this tally with Monaco’s, Monaco have scored 61 fewer than Sunday’s opponents.
  • Their goal tally makes them the highest scorers among teams in the ‘top 5’ European leagues, next best is Man City with 86.
  • Kylian Mbappe has enjoyed an incredible domestic season, scoring 27 goals in 21 starts as well as 7 assists.
  • 33-year-old Radamel Falcao is Monaco’s leading scorer with 12 league goals this season. Gelson Martins currently holds second spot with just 3 goals (Youri Tielemens has 5 but was loaned to Leicester in January).
  • Monaco’s record of 71 yellow and 7 red cards in Ligue 1 this season means they have the worst disciplinary record amongst all 20 teams.
  • 5 of these red cards have been away from home.
  • Monaco have lost just once in their last 10 league games.

Betting Odds

  • PSG 4/9
  • Draw 43/10
  • Monaco 13/2

The Verdict

Jardim’s return has pretty much led Monaco to safety, even if they lose here. PSG’s poor run of form as of late as well has convinced me that this will be a tricky game for the soon-to-be champions of France. One bet that I like for this one and a bet that I’ve backed with some success over recent weeks is the match result and under 3.5 goals. In this case, I’m backing PSG to get the job done and win a cagey encounter. Despite enjoying some better form, this Monaco side are poor going forward, scoring at an average of less than a goal a game and scoring just 3 in their last 5 games. I think with the potential return of Neymar, PSG should win here, but it won’t be a humiliation as Monaco haven’t conceded more than two in any game since Jardim’s return.

Another bet I fancy is for there to be more goals in the second period. I think PSG will win, maybe to nil, so looking at the goal scoring stats of the home side, they seem to be more efficient in front of goal in the second half. This season, they’ve scored 59 in the second and just 33 in the first.

The final bet I like is for Monaco to have a man sent off. It’s a bit of a longshot at 13/2 but their disciplinary record this year, which is the worst in Ligue 1, means I’ve got to back this one. In Ligue 1 this season, they’ve accumulated a massive total of 71 yellow cards and 7 reds, that’s a red card every 4.5 games.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt- PSG to win and under 3.5 goals –  7/4 (Ladbrokes)
  • 1pt- Highest scoring half: Second- Evens (Paddy Power)
  • 1pt- Monaco sending off- 13/2 (Unibet)