Sheffield Utd v Sheffield W'day Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 09/11/18
EFL expert Tom Love (@TomLove_18) previews Sheffield United vs Sheffield Wednesday and provides us with his best bets for Friday night’s televised clash by analysing team news, potential line ups, head to head, key stats, facts and more.
Sheffield United v Sheffield Wednesday Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 09/11/18
- Time: 19:45
- Venue: Bramall Lane
- Channel: SkySports Football
Friday night sees the return of the Steel City Derby, one of the most intense and historical rivalries in football.
This season shows a clear gulf in class between the two sides, United flying high just 1 point off top whereas Wednesday lie in 17th. Delving into the performance data both sides deserve to be where they’re at this moment in time and the 1/2 on the hosts does look a fair price, however backing such a short outright price in a derby game is a potential worry.
Blades have kicked on from their impressive campaign in 2017/18 and they’re setting new, higher standards. I’m personally a huge fan of gaffer Chris Wilder, the straight talking local lad has garnered a collective playing style whereby every player knows what they have to do.
They can mix up their game too, their main way of playing is keeping the ball on the deck, utilising their 3 man midfield to dominate proceedings and making full use of their wing-backs who stay as wide as possible. However, they can go long when they have to, up to Leon Clarke or David McGoldrick who are equally able at holding the ball up or running the channels.
Blades are operating a 62% expected goals ratio which highlights their dominance. Their defensive resolve has been their weak spot in times gone by but they’re xG against is below 1 which tells us they’re not giving up too many presentable opportunities. Wilder’s troops have only won 1 of their last 4 however and that tempers enthusiasm; although they can find hope when looking at their near neighbours performance data.
The Owls have been heavily reliant on some superb strikes from midfielder Adam Reach, a strong volume of his goals have been from outside the box. If Wednesday are to be a sustained threat they must create more inside the 18 yard box.
Jos Luhakay’s side are giving up almost 2 expected goals a game which mirrors their actual statistics. They’re currently on a four match losing run, scoring just twice and conceding 12 in that period. Luhakay usually builds his team on a decent defence but their constant charity to opposition has come back to bite them.
The data has this as a game as one to be dominated by the home side but the prices reflect that, finding value is the hard part.
Chris Basham is back from suspension for the hosts. Mark Duffy and Jake Wright are unavailable though.
Wednesday will be without long-term absentees Gary Hooper and Kieran Lee, however Marco Matias and Fernando Forestieri are back in contention.
Potential Sheffield United XI: Henderson, Freeman, Egan, Basham, O’Connell, Stevens, Norwood, Fleck, McGoldrick, Sharp, Clarke.
Potential Sheffield Wednesday XI: Dawson, Palmer, Hector, Lees, Penney, Onomah, Pelupessy, Bannan, Reach, Fletcher, Nuhui.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in Sheffield Wednesday’s last 6 away league fixtures.
- Sheffield Wednesday have lost their last 4 matches, conceding at least 3 in 3 of those.
- Sheffield United are undefeated in their last 6 at Bramall Lane.
- Sheffield United – 1/2
- Draw – 100/30
- Sheffield Wednesday – 6/1
The home side are rightly favourites here but goals have been a feature in both sides’ games this season.
At home the Blades are strong and I think we can boost the 1/2 to a near even money shot by chucking in over 1.5 goals. We can get a more palatable 10/11 when using bet365 BetBuilder feature.
I’m also expecting a feisty encounter between the fierce rivals and two players I like for a card are central midfielders Barry Bannan and John Fleck. The fiery Scotsmen will be involved in a battle in the middle of the park and both have a track record in the book. Both were brandished yellows in the first fixture between these two last season.