Southampton v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 17/08/19

Southampton v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamescormack_) previews Southampton v Liverpool and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s Premier League clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +4.77pts

Southampton v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 17/09/19
  • Time: 15:00
  • Venue: St. Mary’s
  • Channel: N/A

Liverpool will be looking to maintain their fine start to the season with a win against their feeder club on Saturday at St. Mary’s.

Southampton were dismal in their opening game of the season, with Ashley Barnes and co. summoning the Saints to a 3-0 defeat at Turf Moor last Saturday. A result against the Reds this weekend would be a great way to kick-start their 2019/20 campaign and would be a little bit of payback

I think this Southampton side has got talent and I’ve backed them to finish nearer to the top 10 than the relegation zone. The signing of Che Adams from Birmingham is one that excites me and I think he could take the Premier League by storm this season. I’ve backed the 23-year-old to be top goalscorer this season at 175/1, each-way, of course. Along with Adams, they’ve also got a fine Premier League player in Nathan Redmond. The winger, who can also operate centrally,  enjoyed his most productive season in a Southampton shirt last season, registering 10 G+A’s, and to me, it looks like the 25-year-old is getting better and better. The Saints faithful will be hoping that he continues to be more productive in the final third, as he only has 41 goals in over 340 senior appearances.

Mario Lemina is someone that Southampton will be desperate to still have in their squad come the start of September. The central-midfielder was subject of plenty of transfer rumours in the summer, linking him with moves to other Premier League clubs. With the rest of Europe still having a couple of weeks to do their business, there’s still a chance that Lemina could leave the South Coast. The Gabonese international, who joined from Juventus, has been fantastic in a Southampton shirt and has somewhat filled the void left by Victor Wanyama, who left for Spurs in 2016. He, along with the likes of James Ward-Prowse, Oriol Romeu and Pierre-Emille Hojbjerg make up an impressive group of central-midfielders at the club.

Ralph Hasenhuttl will be hoping that his favoured 3-4-2-1 will help him overcome a Liverpool side that were seemingly imperious last season. However, the Reds don’t seem to be quite at the level they were last season, defensively that is. Against Norwich and especially Chelsea, we saw Liverpool’s high-line get exposed on a few occasions. The likes of Ings, Redmond and Adams will be hoping to cause similar sorts of problems on Saturday.

Despite this, they still look as dangerous as ever offensively, scoring 6 goals in their last two games. Sadio Mane was brilliant in the Super Cup, getting rewarded with a goal, whilst Roberto Firmino changed the game when he made a substitute appearance in Istanbul on Thursday. Mo Salah continues to score goals… and then some more goals… and then a few more. The Egyptian has already opened up his account for the 2019/20 PL season and I wouldn’t bet against him getting on the scoresheet here.

If they are to win their first Premier League title and overcome one of the best PL sides ever, this is a game Liverpool have to win. If I’m being honest, I don’t see how they can cope with the strength of City despite coming so close last season. The 18/19 season was incredible for Jurgen Klopp’s side and ended with a 6th Champions League title, but, mentally it’s going to be incredibly difficult to put up a similar challenge to last season when you look at the squad depths of both sides.

Team News 

With most of the usual Liverpool starting XI playing at least 90 mins in the Super Cup on Thursday, we could see Jurgen Klopp make a few changes for this one.

Adrian is now a doubt for this one whilst Nathaniel Clyne is sidelined with a long-term knee injury. It’s also unlikely for Naby Keita to make an appearance on the South Coast on Saturday.

Ralph Hasenhuttl has a full squad to choose from but will undoubtedly be thinking about making a few changes to his side that lost at Burnley 3-0.

Potential Southampton Starting XI: Gunn, Bednarek, Stephens, Vestergaard, Valery, Hojbjerg, Romeu, Bertrand, Ings, Redmond, Adams.

Potential Liverpool Starting XI: Adrian, TAA, Van Dijk, Gomez, Robertson, Henderson, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Wijnaldum, Salah, Firmino, Mane.

Head To Head

  • All-time: So’ton-30, Draw-24, Liverpool-55.
  • Liverpool have beaten Southampton in four consecutive games, conceding just once in the process.
  • Southampton’s last PL win over Liverpool came in a 3-2 victory at St. Mary’s in 2016.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Mo Salah has scored 5 times against in the Saints in just 4 games.
  • Sadio Mane is yet to score against his former club (5 appearances).
  • Last season saw the Saints gain 8 points from a possible 36 against the top six (two wins at home v Spurs and Arsenal as well as draws against Chelsea and United).
  • In 10/12 games against the top six last season, Southampton conceded two or more goals.
  • Danny Ings and James Ward-Prowse were the Saints’ top scorers last season, both with 7.
  • Che Adams will be looking to bolster Ralph Hasenhuttl’s striking options. The 23-year-old scored 22 times in the Championship for Birmingham last season.
  • Liverpool only lost once last season and didn’t drop a point to sides that finished 12th and below.

Betting Odds

  • Southampton 13/2
  • Draw 19/5
  • Liverpool 1/2

The Verdict

With the way both teams have started their respective seasons, it’s hard to bet against Liverpool, but, there’s little value backing them at ½. Instead, one bet I like the look of is Liverpool to score 3+ goals. The Reds’ front-three have looked sharp early on and I expect them to cause problems for Hasenhuttl’s three-man defence. I’d expect Yan Valery and Ryan Bertrand to play much more conservatively for this one, but, I’d still expect Salah and Mane to have some joy in the channels between centre-back and wing-back. Last season, Southampton struggled against the top sides, conceding two or more in 10/12 games against the top six and three or more in 7/12, including 3-0 and 3-1 defeats against Jurgen Klopp’s men.

Similarly, I think there’s some value to be had in the total goals market. I’ve spoken about how Liverpool’s backline doesn’t look quite settled yet as they look to maintain the fine standard they set last season. Also, doubts have been raised about Adrian’s fitness for Saturday, so Klopp may have a bit of a keeper crisis on his hands. On paper, Southampton’s most advanced three looks dangerous and I think they complement each other well. I’m backing them to score on Saturday in their first home game of the season, meaning it makes sense for me to back over 3.5 goals at 28/17.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt – Liverpool to score 3+ goals – 6/4 (Sky Bet)
  • 1pt – Over 3.5 goals- 28/17 (Redzone)