Sri Lanka v England Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 06/11/18
Cricket specialist Neil Eyes (@nellbergcricket) returns to TPP to preview Sri Lanka v England and provide us with his best bets for the three-match Test series which begins on Tuesday.
Sri Lanka v England Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
A strange build up to the series, with Rangana Herath playing in the 1st test and then retiring and the weather in Sri Lanka at this time of year is “changeable” at best. The draw in the 1st test is odds on with rain forecast for the entire week so it's not a game to get too involved in. There are some series bets I'm also interested in though, so there will be plenty of interest right from the start of the series.
The make up of England side is still very much undecided. Only Bairstow (injured) is ruled out, and there are loads of different combinations and batting orders England could go with. One player who could end up with a prominent role is Moeen Ali. He's a conundrum, he struggled so badly against Nathan Lyon people feel he's a poor player of spin but his record in Asia is very strong. In the 1st innings of tests in Asia he's scored 458 runs with 2 50's and 2 tons. He could bat anywhere between 3 and 8 in this side, and other than Joe Root I have doubts about the rest of the order so at 9/1 he looks fair value (as short as 11/2 elsewhere).
With the bat for Sri Lanka I feel it should be a tight market, but Chandimal is a little under-rated. Since the start of 2017 he averages close to 50, which rises to just above 70 in 1st innings. He really seems to have matured and is the standout Sri Lankan batsman. Over his whole career he's built a strong record, averaging close to 50 in 1st innings at home and 52.5 in 1st innings in Asia so he's shown a real ability to produce big numbers in these conditions. 9/2 to be top bat in the 1st innings here looks a little too big. In the series market it's a slight risk with dodgy weather and batting in the middle order meaning he might not bat as many times as the openers, but he'd still be my choice at the prices. (9/2 again).
With the ball for England, I'm not a big fan of Adil Rashid in tests but he is the type of bowler who can “buy” wickets, especially in the 2nd innings of tests. His record in Asia isn't great in tests of average (42.78) or economy (3.83) but 38 wickets in 10 tests is pretty handy. In an England attack that may be chopped and changed as the series goes on and could contain 6 bowling options a game, he looks a fair bet for the outright series market at 4/1
With the ball for Sri Lanka the prices look pretty fair, how they go without Herath leading them is a slight unknown. Dilruwan is a rightful favourite for me for the series, with Herath the main man in the 1st test but very short.
From the player prop bets, Herath to take over 2.5 wickets is the same price as Dilruwan despite being a strong fav over him so that looks incorrect. He has 134 1st innings wickets in 47 tests, 46 in 18 here in Galle and 12 in 2 at home vs England. This would have copped in 7 of his last 10 home tests. It's his final tests appearance so he'll be looking to go out on a high and the pitch will suit. I expected him to be odds on to take over 2.5 wickets in the 1st innings so 11/10 looks good value. He's 4/6 with Ladbrokes in the same market.