Valencia v Arsenal Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 09/05/19
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Valencia vs Arsenal and provides us with his best bets for Thursday’s Europa League semi-final second leg by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: -3.30pts
Valencia v Arsenal Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 09/05/19
- Time: 20:00
- Venue: Estadio De Mestalla
Arsenal’s Champions League hopes now rest solely on this competition, therefore adding real pressure ahead of their trip to Spain.
Valencia caused them all sorts of problems at home, especially in the first 20 minutes and they will feel that they are by no means out of this tie, 3-1 down.
That away goal could be crucial, however, and one goal for the home side will make things very interesting, especially in such a cauldron of a stadium like the Mestalla.
Valencia’s home form has been quite outstanding in the last year, losing just five times in all competitions and have lost just twice at home all season in all competitions. They are three points away from fourth in La Liga with two games to go, so their qualification for Champions League could also rest on winning this competition.
Valencia have to go for this at some point and you would imagine that will leave them vulnerable defensively but Arsenal’s lack of ability in the defensive areas will fill the Spanish side with hope that they can come through this tie.
The advantage lies with the North-London side still, however, but this tie is by no means over and they will be keen to get on the score sheet early on to relieve some pressure.
Francis Coquelin missed the first-leg due to suspension so is likely to return to the starting eleven here, whilst Geoffrey Kondogbia and Denis Cheryshev remain out of contention. Expect Valencia to be more attacking in their formation than last week.
Arsenal rested the likes of Laurent Koscielny and Ainsley Matiland-Niles at the weekend against Brighton and Unai Emery is likely to bring them back in here. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang may not be needed from the start here due to the nature of the tie.
Potential Valencia Starting XI: Neto; Piccini, Garay, Paulista, Gaya; Soler, Coquelin, Parejo, Guedes; Moreno, Mina
Potential Arsenal Starting XI: Cech; Koscielny, Sokratis, Mustafi; Kolasinac, Guendouzi, Xhaka, Maitland-Niles; Mkhitaryan, Iwobi; Lacazette
Head To Head
- Arsenal’s win in the first-leg ended a four-match winless run for the Gunners against Valencia and the away side in this fixture hasn’t won in any of the six matches that have been played (L5 D1 W0).
Key Stats & Facts
- Arsenal have been winning at both half-time and full-time in their last four Europa League matches.
- Valencia have beaten Arsenal every time they have played them at home.
- Arsenal have won just three of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
- Valencia – 23/25
- Draw – 3/1
- Arsenal – 3/1
Arsenal hold the advantage in the tie and therefore the emphasis is very much on Valencia to come out and try and get themselves back in the game.
Valencia will be aware of Arsenal’s woes on the road domestically and their defensive frailties are there for everyone to see. Valencia had numerous opportunities in the opening 20 minutes especially and they should really have been 2 or 3 up before Arsenal got their equaliser.
Arsenal have won just three of their last 10 away games in all competitions and have averaged the concession of two goals a game across those 10. They conceded three in each of their last two away games at Wolves and Leicester and lost to Rennes earlier in this competition, again conceding three.
Valencia’s home form, reversely, has been incredibly strong. They have lost just three games at home in all competitions all season and have lost just five since the start of last year. They haven’t lost at home in the Europa League since 2013 and have won all three of their games in this season’s UEL.
BTTS is 4/7 in this game and I think that is fair given both sides pose a threat in attack and both seem a little less than assured defensively. Adding over 2.5 goals to that BTTS really appeals given Valencia have to attack and Arsenal will look to play on the counter.