Valencia v Real Betis Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 27/02/19

Valencia v Real Betis Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews Valencia v Real Betis and provides us with his best bets for the 2nd leg of this Copa del Rey Semi-Final clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -1.45pts

Valencia v Real Betis Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 28/02/19
  • Time: 20:00
  • Venue: Mestalla
  • Channel: Eleven Sports 2

Real Betis will be looking to make their first Copa del Rey final appearance since 2005 as they travel to Valencia for the second leg of what is a finely balanced tie.

Both sides have struggled in this competition over the past decades with the two Spanish powerhouses dominating. Valencia were victorious in 2008 but have only reached the final twice in 20 years. Betis have fared even worse, last reaching a CdR final when they were last victorious in the competition. In fact, Betis have only reached the semi-final stage once since 1995.

In the first leg, goals from Denis Cheryshev and a late Kevin Gameiro leveller had cancelled out earlier Betis goals from Loren Moron and Joaquin to earn Valencia an invaluable 2-2 draw.

League form would also suggest that we could be in for a tight, tense encounter this Thursday night. Valencia haven’t lost since January 5th and have drawn their last 4 league games whilst Betis sit 3 points above them in 7th, but despite some inconsistent form as of late, Betis have beaten Barcelona (at Nou Camp), AC Milan, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla this season. They are certainly a side that isn’t afraid of the big occasion.

With both managers having a trusted system and formation, Valencia: 4-4-2, Betis: 3-4-2-1 (with some variation), it’ll be interesting to see which one comes out on top in a crunch game. The 442 used by Marcelino García Toral would suggest a stout defensive structure with Toral using the genuine CM Carlos Soler out wide to provide for the likes of Rodrigo up top. On the other hand, Quique Setien’s system is very much possession-based, despite the 3 at the back system suggesting a team that’s good in transition.

PSG loanee Giovanni Lo Celso has been a revelation for Betis this season. The 22-year old Argentinian is the club’s highest-rated player this season (according to whoscored.com) with a 7.10 and has put in some masterful performances. Lo Celso has operated in a no.10 role or as a withdrawn no.9 (pretty much a no.10) and has certainly thrived in Setien’s set-up. He has 5G’s and 2A’s in La Liga this season and has been awarded MOTM against Barca, Real Madrid and Milan, certainly a man who will be looking to make an impact in another big game this Thursday.

Team News        

The home side have a few key names on the injury list with Jose Gaya a doubt with a broken nose whilst Ezequiel Garay has a thigh issue.

Antonio Barragan, Diego Lainez and Junior Firpo are all doubts for the away side. But Cristian Tello, who has 7 G+A’s for Betis in the La Liga, has returned to training after a month out.

Potential Valencia Starting XI: Neto, Piccini, Gabriel, Roncaglia, Gaya, Soler, Parejo, Coquelin, Cheryshev, Rodrigo, Mina.

Potential Real Betis Starting XI: Robles, Mandi, Bartra, Sidnei, Carvalho, Joaquin, Firpo, Canales, Guardado, Jese, Lo Celso, Moron.

Head To Head

  • From 2005-: Valencia- 15, Draw-4, Betis-9.
  • This fixture in the La Liga this season ended in a 0-0 draw.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Recent history of the fixture has shown this game could play out 1 of 2 ways- a 0-0 (3x in 3 years) or a high-scoring, entertaining contest- scores of 6-3, 3-2 and 5-0 since 2014.
  • Valencia have beaten CD Ebro, Sporting Gijon and Getafe to reach the semi-finals.
  • Betis have overcome Racing Santander, Real Sociedad and Espanyol to reach this stage.
  • Valencia haven’t lost since their 2-1 away defeat to Alaves back on January 5th– 2W’s, 5D’s since then.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 18 of Valencia’s league games so far this season.
  • Valencia have the most draws out of anyone in the league- 15/25 games have ended in draws, they have only 4 defeats which is the 3rd lowest in the division.
  • Valencia statistically have the 2nd best defensive record in La Liga, conceding just 21 in 25 and are only behind Atletico’s notoriously stout defence who have conceded just 17.
  • Penalty-taker Daniel Parejo is Valencia’s leading scorer in La Liga this season with 6 goals, Sergio Canales is Betis’ top-scorer in La Liga, also with 6.
  • Both sides have underperformed in front of goal- Valencia quite shockingly have scored just 25 goals despite having an xG of 41.92 whilst Betis have an xG of 33.24 but have only scored 29.
  • After going through December without a league loss, Betis have won 3, lost 3 and drawn once in 2019 as well as getting knocked out of the Europa at the hands of Rennes.

Betting Odds

  • Valencia 7/9
  • Draw 35/12
  • Betis 4/1 

The Verdict

I think the stats would suggest that we could be in for a low-scoring game here. 18/25 of Valencia’s league games this season have ended with under 2.5 goals with the score being 0-0,1-0 or 0-0 in 16 of those games. Valencia’s rigid 4-4-2 structure has made them incredibly resilient and tough to beat, which is probably a reason for their habit of drawing games.  I think a draw at 73/25 is pretty good value for this fixture and one I’m not going to overlook. 0-0 at the Mestalla earlier in the season and 9/14 of Valencia’s games at home ending in draw gives me pretty good reason to back this bet.

Another bet I can’t overlook is Giovanni Lo Celso to score at over 5/1. This is great value for a man that has been on fire for Betis this season, scoring 12 in all comps this season and has been the man that Betis have looked for on the big occasion. Although I think it could be a low-scoring one, Lo Celso’s talent could be a game-changer.

The final bet I like the look of is under 2.5 goals. Although Betis’ system would suggest that they would score a lot of goals, they certainly haven’t set the league alight in front of goal and they seem to be running out of steam after what was an impressive first half of the season. Valencia have had their own problems in front of goal, holding a massive -16.92 xG differential which highlights their inability to take chances. After the first leg finished 2-2, I think we could be in for a cagey encounter on Thursday and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s settled on penalties.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Draw- 73/25 (Marathon Bet)
  • 1pt – Giovanni Lo Celso anytime- 51/10 (Unibet)
  • 1pt – Under 2.5 goals- 53/50 (Marathon Bet)