Wigan v Nottingham Forest Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 20/10/19
Chris Bland (@blandc_1996) previews Wigan Athletic v Nottingham Forest and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s Championship clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019/2020 Season Profit & Loss: +5.55pts
Wigan Athletic v Nottingham Forest Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 20/10/2019
- Time: 14:00
- Venue: DW Stadium
- Channel: Sky Sports Football
League leaders Nottingham Forest travel to the North West to take on a Wigan side languishing in 19th in the league, with only three wins to their name.
Unbeaten since the opening day after a defeat to West Brom, Sabri Lamouchi’s men will be looking to extend their streak to eleven, and come into the game fresh off the back of Lamouchi winning manager of the month for September.
Wigan manager Paul Cook has been linked with the Sunderland post in recent weeks, however he was rumoured to have turned it down and will now be looking to push on with Wigan.
Goals have been an issue for Cook’s side, only managing nine all season, and coming up against a side who are one of the leading sides defensively with only nine goals conceded this season, the signs are ominous for Wigan
Sam Morsy misses out through suspension for Wigan after picking up five yellow cards, whilst Gary Roberts and Tom Pearce have been ruled out.
Doubtful for Forest are Michael Dawson, Ryan Yates and Alfa Semedo, whilst midfielder Samba Sow limped off against Brentford with a hamstring problem, and will be a miss if not passed fit.
Potential Wigan Athletic Starting XI: Marshall; Byrne, Dunkley, Mulgrew, Robinson; Williams,; Massey, Windass, Jacobs; Moore
Potential Nottingham Forest Starting XI: Samba; Cash, Dawson, Worrall, Robinson; Watson; Lolley, Silva, Semedo, Ameobi; Grabban
Head To Head
- Wigan Athletic – 4 wins
- Draws – 6
- Nottingham Forest – 4 wins
Key Stats & Facts
- Referee Matthew Donohue has officiated 7 league games, handing out 36 yellow cards at an average of over 5 a game..
- Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in 10 league games.
- Wigan have won their last 2 homes games.
- Nottingham Forest’s top scorer this season is Lewis Grabban with 5 goals.
- Wigan Athletic 19/10
- Draw 12/5
- Nottingham Forest 17/10
Nottingham Forest come into this game looking to build upon a strong run of form that has left them first, and are well equipped to do so against a Wigan side struggling in front of goal. Wigan’s expected goals (xG) currently sits below 1 per game, and their strikers are struggling to find the scoresheet. They have been most threatening from set pieces, with centre half Chey Dunkley the only player to score more than one goal, and will look to target a Nottingham Forest back line susceptible to these set pieces.
Wigan will look to play direct to target man Kieffer Moore, who is unsurprisingly winning 7.8 aerial duals per game. However, Forest have the players with the nous to adapt to this, particularly in picking up the second balls from his knockdowns. Lining up 4-1-4-1, Ben Watson will sit in front of the back four and look to stop the supply line to Josh Windass from Wigan, and averaging 2.7 tackles, 1.5 interceptions and 1.5 clearances already this season, he has been performing the role well. Also fundamental to playing out the back and linking the defence to midfield, Watson has been impressive in recent weeks, if he is to influence the game, it will go a long way to three points for Forest.
Forest operate best on the counter attack, and will hope to find space in behind the Wigan backline this way. However, if Wigan are to sit back, they do possess creativity to break down the Wigan defence, and in particular the left wing area with Joe Lolley and Matty Cash stands out. Up against Nathan Byrne and Gavin Massey, they will look to get in behind the Wigan backline, and subsequently use this avenue to ocerload the box and create chances for top scorer Lewis Grabban, who already has 5 to his name. Sam Morsy will be a huge miss in midfield for Wigan as he is ruled out with suspension, and his defensive contribution will need to be addressed.
Forest have been overperforming their xG this season, scoring 1.5 per game to the 1.1 they have been expected, and with both attacks in around the same mark, it does point in the direction of a tight affair.
It is also worth noting that both sides are also averaging under 50% possession in games this season, meaning one will have to take the impetus, which they are less comfortable doing so. However, I believe the creativity of Forest and players in attack will allow Forest to do in search of an early goal, before looking to sit deep and pick Wigan off on the break, similar to the game against Stoke City.
Wigan will offer a threat from set pieces, particularly against a side struggling to defend them, but from open play the threat will come from Forest, and their attacking talent is hard to look past as they sit top of the league. Samba Sow will be a miss defensively if he fails to recover from his injury in time, and is worth keeping an eye on when the teams are announced.
Referee Matthew Donohue isn’t afraid to get players in the book, highlighted by an average of over 5 per game. In a game where pacey wingers will look to stretch the play, and the chances of counter attacks needing to be stopped cynically are high, particularly from a Wigan point of view, it is worth looking at the card markets, and jumping out is midfielder Joe Williams. Without the energetic Sam Morsy alongside him, he will be expected to cover a lot of ground, and averaging 3.5 tackles per game and being dribbled past on average once per game, 5/1 (William Hill) looks a big price.