In this 2018 World Cup betting preview, Ben Levene (@benlevene96) takes a look at the top goalscorer betting market and gives us his best bets ahead of this year’s tournament in Russia.

World Cup 2018 Top Goalscorer Betting Preview & Tips

In 9 of the last 10 World Cup tournaments, either 5 or 6 goals has been enough to win the golden boot. Including ties, 13 of the 14 top scorers in those last 10 tournaments have played at least 5 games. Although these trends aren’t predictive, they are worth keeping in mind when addressing the top scorer market ahead of this summer.

Edison Cavani was the top goalscorer in CONMEBOL qualification with 10 goals. Uruguay tend to operate with two up-top with Luis Suarez playing a slightly deeper role. At 25/1 you can make a case for the PSG man who netted 40 times in 47 matches in all competitions this season.

On the other hand, the likely approach of Group A counterparts Egypt, Russia and Saudi Arabia could be a worry. All 3 outfits will look to keep games tight and that could result in low-scoring affairs.

When looking to get a run for your money in this market, eyeing regular starters from sides who should progress to the latter stages of the tournament is a wise move.

Germany have reached at least the semi-final stages in 5 consecutive competitions since Joachim Low took charge. Thomas Muller started 9 of the country’s 10 qualification games, scoring 5 goals in total. Domestically, Muller got on the scoresheet 15 times for Bayern Munich this season, in what was an underwhelming campaign by his standards. Muller is no stranger to the big stage and was the top scorer at the 2010 tournament and finished as the second top goalscorer in 2014.

The Verdict

Perhaps the best value of all can be found in the three-figure price about Paulinho. The Brazilian scored 6 times in 11 appearances during qualification, a single goal behind Brazil’s leading scorer Gabriel Jesus. All 6 of Paulinho’s goals came from outside of Brazil whilst 4 of those were to open the scoring, so he was producing at important moments. He netted 9 times in La Liga whilst playing a bit-part role for Barcelona this season. The 29-year-old loves venturing into the six-yard box and has a knack on getting on the end of things. Odds of 100/1 mean we’re getting around 25/1 for the place part of our bet which seems generous.

Tip: When placing your top goalscorer bets, remember that most bookmakers are paying out 4 places at ¼ of the odds.

Recommended Bets

  • Paulinho EW @ 125/1

World Cup Golden Boot Stats & Trends

  • 6 goals has been enough to win the World Cup Golden Boot in 8 of the last 9 tournaments.
  • Brazil hold the record for the most World Cup Golden Boot winners with 3.
  • 7 of the 16 players to have solely won the Golden Boot played for a team that made the final.

World Cup Golden Boot Past Winners

Year Golden Boot Winner Team/Final Position Goals
2014 James Rodríguez Colombia/QF 6
2010 Thomas Müller Germany/3rd 5
2006 Miroslav Klose Germany/3rd 5
2002 Ronaldo Brazil/Winner 8
1998 Davor Å uker Croatia 6
1994 Oleg Salenko & Russia/3rd 6
Hristo Stoichkov Bulgaria/Group Stages
1990 Salvatore Schillaci Italy/3rd 6
1986 Gary Lineker England/QF 6
1982 Paolo Rossi Italy/Winner 6
1978 Mario Kempes Argentina/Winner 6
1974 Grzegorz Lato Poland/3rd 7
1970 Gerd Müller Germany/3rd 10
1966 Eusébio Portugal/3rd 10
1962 6-Way Tie 4
1958 Just Fontaine France/3rd 13
1954 Sándor Kocsis Hungary/Runners Up 11
1950 Ademir Brazil/Runners Up 8
1938 Leônidas Brazil/3rd 7
1934 Oldrich Nejedly Czechoslovakia/Runners Up 5
1930 Guillermo Stábile Argentina/Runners Up 8