2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 3 Betting Preview & Tips

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 3 Betting Preview & Tips

Tennis specialist Craig Vickers (@craigvickers_) previews day three of the men’s BNP Paribas Open and provides us with his best bets for the first Masters 1000 tournament of the year.

  • 2019 Profit and Loss: +5.3pts

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 3 Betting Preview & Tips

  • Date: 9 March 2019
  • Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
  • Channel: Amazon Prime Video/Tennis TV

Saturday marks day three at the BNP Paribas Open and conditions are set to be slightly less windy than yesterday, with temperatures set to peak at 20 Celsius in mid-afternoon.

We scored our first winner of the tournament yesterday when Alex Bolt took care of business against the volatile Ernests Gulbis. The Australian buckled under scoreboard pressure when serving to stay in set two, but his superior level told in the end as he sealed the win, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2.

However, Taylor Fritz disappointed in a straight sets defeat to countryman Steve Johnson later in the afternoon. The 21-year-old failed to threaten the Johnson serve and it took him until he was a double break down in the second set to dent a hole in his opponent’s deal, falling 6-3, 6-3.

Our quarter outright Milos Raonic commences his Indian Wells campaign against Sam Querrey on Saturday as a 4/9 favourite.

The Verdict

The seeds begin to filter into the draw this weekend which reduces value across the ground, but there is still scope for value and never more so than in Yoshihito Nishioka’s clash with Roberto Bautista-Agut at around 1AM GMT.

The Spaniard must have upset tournament schedulers at Indian Wells because his opponent will pose a particular problem on a surface such as this and the 5PM local start – with the sun going down and temperatures plummeting – will suit the tireless Japanese.

Nishioka is over the knee injury which interrupted a year of his career and he capped his comeback with a title on outdoor hard at the Shenzhen Open last year.

Bautista-Agut hits very flat and prefers quicker conditions where the ball can travel faster through the air and trouble his opponents rhythm. The question will be whether he will be able to keep his composure as the Japanese continues to spoon balls back into play.

Nishioka has a decent record at Indian Wells, too, reaching the round of 16 in his break out season two years ago. He came through the qualifying rounds that year and recovered from a set down to defeat Tomas Berdych in the third round.

2014 was the last year in which Bautista-Agut reached further than the third round, meanwhile, and the Spaniard has played very little tennis since the Australian Open – winning a match apiece in Sofia and Dubai.

Nishioka is long odds at 11/4 to win, but instead we’ll back him to keep it tight at +3.5 games (6/5).

Elsewhere, Jan-Lennard Struff clashes with Ricardas Berankis at around 10PM UK time and the former will fancy his chances in the peak of the afternoon.

Berankis prefers indoor conditions where his shorter swings are not as easily exposed and the Lithuanian doesn’t really have a record to write home about in California, winning only the single main draw match and even that came eight years ago.

There is very little value in backing Struff to win, but he will be confident of building on his fine performance against John Millman in the first round and a 2-0 win in sets can be backed at 6/5.

Recommended Bets

  • 0.5pts – Yoshihito Nishioka +3.5 games – 6/5 (Bet365)
  • 0.8pts – Jan-Lennard Struff to win 2-0 – 11/8 (BoyleSports)