2019 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 07/03/19

2019 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Tennis specialist Craig Vickers (@craigvickers_) previews the men’s BNP Paribas Open and provides us with his best bets for the first Masters 1000 tournament of the year.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +4.91pts

2019 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 7-17 March
  • Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
  • Channel: Amazon Prime Video/Tennis TV

Thursday marks day one at the men’s BNP Paribas Open as the opening Masters 1000 of the year commences in the scenic deserts of Coachella Valley.

Juan Martin del Potro captured his maiden Masters 1000 crown at last year’s event but the Argentine was forced to withdraw this time around as he continues his recovery from a knee injury.

That opens the door for several players, but it is still Novak Djokovic – the top seed and five-time champion at Indian Wells – who starts as the bookie’s favourite.

The Serb was in imperious form in Melbourne at the start of the year, dismantling Rafael Nadal in a strikingly one-sided final, but he has lost his previous two finals at Masters level. Karen Khachanov stunned him at the Paris Masters before Alexander Zverev outsmarted the serial champion at the ATP Finals to conclude 2018.

He could face the Acapulco champion Nick Kyrgios in the third round – the Australian won their encounter here two years ago – in a match that could shape the remainder of the tournament.

Elsewhere, Rafael Nadal is the number two seed and the Spaniard will be reeling from his disappointing exit to Kyrgios in Mexico last week. He has triumphed in the Californian desert on three separate occasions, with his last coming all the way back in 2013.

Roger Federer, meanwhile, sealed his 100th career title in Dubai last week and the Swiss boasts a tremendous record at Indian Wells in recent times, winning the crown in 2015 and 2017 before reaching the final twelve months ago.

Alexander Zverev, Kei Nishikori and Kevin Anderson are among others lurking with intent.

Betting Odds (Bet365)

  • Novak Djokovic – 6/5
  • Rafael Nadal – 9/2
  • Roger Federer – 11/2
  • Alexander Zverev – 12/1
  • Kei Nishikori – 28/1
  • Milos Raonic, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Nick Kyrgios – 33/1

The Verdict

Djokovic tends to open at a similar price each tournament and as such there is very little value in backing the Serb, especially considering the Nick Kyrgios complex that could await in the third round.

Instead, value perhaps lies in opposing Alexander Zverev as the top seed in quarter two, with the German having failed to reach beyond the round of 16 in his last three visits to Indian Wells.

He was ousted in his opening match against the mercurial Joao Sousa last year and that was despite coming off an impressive run in Acapulco the previous week – as he is this time around after reaching the final in Mexico.

A potential threat in his quarter is Stefanos Tsitsipas – semi-finalist at the Australian Open – who has previous on outdoor hard at Masters 1000 level. The Greek reached the final of the Rogers Cup last year and he is reaching finals at a rate of knots this year, triumphing in Marseille last month before reaching the final in Dubai last week.

Tsitsipas is showtime and he very rarely wilts under pressure, hence 9/2 is a decent price for the 20-year-old to win the quarter, but instead we’ll back Milos Raonic to seize the quarter at 4/1.

The Canadian showed signs of his old self in Melbourne earlier this year with a run to the quarter-finals and he enjoys the conditions at Indian Wells, with his serve able to fly through the air during the day.

He has ended his coaching association with Goran Ivanisevic, but Fabrice Santoro has stepped in to fill the void and it could be the spark that the 2016 finalist requires.

Rafael Nadal is the top seed in the bottom quarter and it could be worth opposing a player who has enjoyed very little success at this venue in recent years.

John Isner and Tomas Berdych stand out as potential challengers and the former could pose a risk if the schedulers are liberal with their afternoon assignments for the American.

Isner’s record at Indian Wells hardly sets the world alight, but he has been handed a fairly straightforward draw with a likely third round meeting against Ernest Gulbis. However, any potential quarter-final showdown with Nadal will surely be scheduled in the evening – with conditions considerable slower – so a small stake is advised at 11/1.

Recommended Bets

  • 0.5pts – Milos Raonic To Win Quarter – 4/1 (Betfair)
  • 0.3pts – John Isner To Win Quarter – 11/1 (Betfair)