AC Milan v Inter Milan Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 17/03/19
James Cormack (@marcello95cf) previews The Milan Derby and provides us with his best bets for Sunday night’s Serie A fixture by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: – 3.78
AC Milan vs Inter Milan Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 17/03/19
- Time: 19:30
- Venue: San Siro
- Channel: Premier Sports
This Sunday see’s one of the most famous and intense derbies in world football, as Milan and Inter do battle at the San Siro.
There is plenty at stake this weekend, as both sides battle for Champions League football. Milan currently sit in third in the league, with Inter one point behind them in fourth. Roma are hot on the heels of the two Milan clubs, however, and slip-ups at this point in a season can be costly.
Milan come into the game in brilliant form, having lost just four games all season and on a five-match winning streak in the league. They have scored 12 goals in those five matches and conceding just two, showing their ability to perform at both ends of the pitch.
As for their rivals, Inter, they are starting to falter at the worst possible time. Having won just three of their last eight Serie A games and crashing out of the Europa League in mid-week. Mauro Icardi’s off-pitch issues seem to be having an affect on the team’s performance and without him, Inter are always going to find it difficult to score goals.
Recent games between these two sides, however, does make for better reading for Nerazzurri fans, as they haven’t lost to Milan since 2016 in the league but the games are often tense and close affairs. 10 of the last 15 games between them have seen under 2.5 goals, with the 1-0 score line a regular trend, in six of those 15.
With so much riding on this game, neither side will want to lose, with Roma lurking dangerously behind them. Inter won the reverse game back in October 1-0 but the form is definitely with Milan at the minute and they will be out for revenge.
Ricardo Rodriguz is available for selection again here and is expected to be placed straight back in the starting 11. Lucas Biglia will probably swap back out for Bakayoko.
Mauro Icardi’s on-going off-pitch feud with the club means he remains out of the squad, whilst fellow striker, Lautaro Martinez, will come back into the side after being rested mid-week. Matias Vecino is again available for selection after sitting out his one-match suspension.
Potential Milan Starting XI: Donnarumma; Calabria, Musacchio, Romagnoli, Rodriguez; Kessie, Bakayoko, Paqueta; Suso, Piatek, Calhanoglu
Potential Inter Starting XI: Handanovic; D’Ambrosio, De Vrij, Skriniar, Asamoah; Vecino, Brozovic; Politano, Joao Mario, Perisic, Martinez
Head To Head
- These two teams have played 60 times, with each side winning 22 games and drawing the other 16. Milan have not beaten Inter in the league since 2016.
Key Stats & Facts
- Milan have won their last five Serie A matches.
- Milan have kept a clean sheet in their last four home league matches.
- Inter have kept a clean sheet against Inter in their last three games in all competitions.
- Inter are undefeated in their last six games against their city rivals in all competitions.
- Milan – 6/4
- Draw – 43/20
- Inter – 113/50
Looking at the league table, this derby takes added importance, given how tight things are between Roma and the two Milan clubs. Neither side will want to lose this game, both because of it being such a fierce rivalry and the fact that neither will not want to drop out of the top 4.
Having said that, Milan are the in-form side and Inter are such an inconsistent side. They have the ability to beat anyone in the league on their day but rarely do they play to their best and without Mauro Icardi, there seems to be plenty of doom and gloom around the club.
Looking at a bet for this one is tricky, given that, on paper, this is a very close game. Milan have lost just four times this season, but their nine draws has halted them from competing with Napoli and Juventus.
However, I am not particularly confident backing them outright here at 6/4 as their form against top half sides is not massively encouraging (P12 W3 D5 L4). In their matches against the top half teams this campaign, BTTS has resulted in 7/11 of them and they average 1.3 goals scored per game and concede on average 1.3 goals.
As for Inter, their form against the top half is slightly better (P11 W5 D3 L3). They have seen 6/11 games end with BTTS, and they average 1.5 goals per game in these fixtures, as well as conceding 1.3 goals.
On the basis of those stats, BTTS in this game at 23/25 looks good value, especially given Inter have kept just three clean sheets against the top half sides and Milan just two.
The other bet I am going to go for here is in the card market, as this is one of the fiercest derbies in world football, and cards are often a trend. In this fixture, the average number of cards is 5.4 per game and Inter and Milan have both seen over 3.5 cards in their games land in 82% and 63% respectively. The bet I like here is there to be between 45 – 46 booking points at 2/1 with SkyBet. This bet would have landed in nine of the last 10 matches between these two sides and given how crucial this game is, the stakes are high, and this looks like a good bet in the circumstances.