Football Draw Stats – Finding Value
You may be looking at this table and think to yourself, but how can I predict draws with this? There are in fact several ways that this table could be used to draw out some great predictions, especially when combining it with some of our other football stats.
Frequent Draws
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The most obvious way to use the stats for draw predictions is to see which team does in fact draw the most often. If a team has more draws than wins and losses combined, then its safe to say that they’re likely to tie with their opponent. This can be heightened if two opposing teams have similar or high percentage of draw results.
High and Low Scorers
If a team does have many draws, delving deeper and understanding how they are getting those draws may be crucial. By comparing draw stats with our Total Team Goals stats, you’ll be able to more accurately predict draws.
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More defensive teams will likely have fewer goals per match as they score and concede less, meaning that they tend to get more draws as a result. Looking out for defensive teams may win you a pretty penny if you calculate well. On the other hand, teams with many draws but a high number of goals for and against may not be a wise choice, as their score will be much more unpredictable and volatile.
Match Stats
Why Should I Bet on Draws?
Most people, especially football fans, tend to bet by following their gut instinct or backing the team they hope will win. Arsenal fans will bet on an Arsenal win, for example, while Manchester United fans will consistently back a victory for their team. That means that a bookmaker's liability (what operators must pay out to punters) is usually stacked on either team to win.
If nobody is backing a particular outcome, bookies will boost the odds on the latter, while lowering the odds on other outcomes (win or loss in this case). This means they will have to pay less in case of the other outcomes being successful. A draw may have real odds of around 9/4; however, the lack of bets can push the odds up to 5/2 or even close to 3/1.
Separating Odds Sets
When looking at various sets of odds, this becomes very clear. Let us look at two examples of 1X2 outcomes.
The first has a strong home favourite, with odds of 13/20 (home team to win), 23/10 (draw), and 19/4 (away team to win), while the second has more balanced odds at 8/5, 23/10, and 9/5.
If you have been paying attention, you will see that despite the odds being different, a draw is equally likely. In the first set, the draw is the second most likely outcome, while in the second, it is the most likely outcome.
As you can see, a draw can be just as likely when there is a heavy favourite to win as when both teams are evenly matched. This is often caused by heavy betting on the favourite, which can skew the odds.
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This further demonstrates the value in draw betting.
Promotions for Betting on Draws
Whether or not you are betting on draws, it's a good idea to look out for any offers which may give you a competitive edge or advantage over the bookie.
You’ll might find some great promotions such as the bet365 ‘Bore Draw' Money Back Offer, which refunds your stake if a match finishes 0-0, giving your bet added safety. Since around 8% of all football matches end in a nil – nil draw, this promotion is certainly worth taking a look at.
The Probability of Draws in Football
Of course, football teams are not incentivised to settle for a draw. All professional leagues award three points for a win and just one for a tie. However, this does not stop draws from being frequent.
While draws are more common in lower leagues, they are less frequent in higher leagues. This can be seen clearly when comparing the percentages of draws between the EPL and League 2, Serie A and Serie B, and Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2, shown in the table below.
Just in case you are wondering, the league with the most draws in the 2021/2022 season was the Iran Azadegan League, the second division of Iranian football, with a whopping draw percentage of 51.61%!
| Tournament | 2021 – 2022 | 2020 – 2021 | 2019 – 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPL | 23.20% | 21.80% | 24.20% |
| League 2 | 27.30% | 27.50% | 29.90% |
| Champions League | 19.80% | 19.80% | 23.10% |
| Serie A | 25.80% | 25.50% | 23.20% |
| Serie B | 30.20% | 34.70% | 26.70% |
| Greece Super League | 25.30% | 29.00% | 29.00% |
| Bundesliga | 23.70% | 26.30% | 22.80% |
| Bundesliga 2 | 28.30% | 23.30% | 31.80% |
Hint: Make sure to check out our betting prediction platform KickForm, where you can find 1. Bundesliga tips and more!
How To Predict Draws – A Mathematical Approach
While knowing how often draws occur in a specific league is very relevant, it does not tell us how likely a draw will be in a specific matchup. In order to calculate their odds, bookies use mathematical models to predict the likelihood of any possible outcome. That includes draws, wins, losses, and specific scores. Two of the most common models are Poisson distribution and Normal Distribution.
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Predicting Draws with Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution is a method that uses probability theory to predict how likely an event is. You can use it to calculate the likelihood of a specific score in football. To do this, you need to first calculate your league’s average goal expectancy, as well as the attack strength and defence strength for both sides. After calculating how likely every specific score is, you can add up the probabilities of all drawing scores (0 – 0, 1 – 1, 2 – 2, 3 – 3, 4 – 4, etc).
Read our full article on Poisson distribution and learn how to create your own Poisson football spreadsheet with Excel (as shown below).
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Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is a statistical model based on averages, as well as how often they occur. Two teams may have the same average score – however, one team can be very consistent, while one team overperforms and underperforms frequently. By calculating the standard deviation, you can see how often and by how much results differ from the mean. This will possibly give you a more nuanced result.
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Other Mathematical Factors
If you are looking to bet on draws, look at how likely a draw is in a specific league. Draws have plenty of correlations. Low-scoring leagues have more draws than higher scoring leagues. The fewer the goals, the more likely a draw.
Another rule of thumb is to look for teams approximately equal in strength. One way is to use Elo ratings. If one team is weaker, it can make up for it with a home field advantage.
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Soft Factors
Besides a more mathematical approach, there are plenty of soft factors that can increase or decrease the probability of a draw. While these are highly influential, they are not as easy to quantify, and are often ignored by bookies.
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Playing Style
While certain factors, such as attack/defence ratio, attack strength, goals scored, and goals conceded are easily quantified, the exact style matchups between different teams are hard to express in numbers. Strategic scenarios are the stuff of managers. Still, it can’t hurt to come up with your own likely scenarios for how a match will play out.
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Motivation Factor
Another important factor is motivation. This depends a lot on where in the season the tournament is, and is particularly relevant at the end. Teams that desperately need a win for a title challenge or to prevent themselves from being relegated are more motivated than teams in the middle of the pack. Teams with nothing to win or lose may be more likely to draw matches.
Weaker teams may also be more content with a draw when playing stronger teams. Instead of chasing the victory, they may be content to simply defend and shut down the team with better accolades.
Draw Betting Systems Ranked
There are various draw betting systems you can use, with some riskier than others. We have ranked them below from best to worst.
1. Backing the Draw System
The backing the draw system is the main strategy for draw betting. The idea behind it is very simple. Since punters and football fans are more likely to bet on teams to win, less money comes in on draws, causing bookies to inflate the odds on ties.
While the real odds on a draw are closer to 2/1 (or even lower), the lack of bets pushes the odds up to near 3/1. If you bet the same stake on three draws with odds of around 3/1 and only win one of them, you will still make a profit.
Several tipsters sell draw tips based on this system. Every week, they usually choose three or more matches for draw picks, while boasting a considerable ROI. Of course, there is no reason you cannot figure it out for yourself.
2. 2 out of 5 System
The 2 out of 5 system is essentially a strategy that involves accumulators or a system bet. Here, you chose five matches that are likely to draw. Instead of betting directly on those five matches, you place a system bet, betting on all the doubles (the outcome of each individual match parlayed with each of the other matches).
As the name suggests, you will only need two out of every five matches correct in order to make a profit. This usually works if the odds are on average over 23/10 (which is common for draws) or higher for your selections.
3. Betting on Draw/Odd Total
This is essentially a form of Dutching or arbitrage betting. On one hand, you bet on a draw, on the other, you bet on an odd (instead of even) score. Since a draw is always an even score, you can be sure that you will win. Whether this strategy works depends on the odds, of course.
Most bookies’ odds are set in a way to prevent this from happening. Nevertheless, you can sometimes find opportunities by shopping between different bookies.
4. Chasing a Draw (Martingale with draw)
Chasing a draw is a less sophisticated method of draw betting. It is a variation of the Martingale betting strategy, which advises that you keep doubling your bets until you are in the black. Here, you keep betting on the same team to draw and keep doubling your bets to make up for any losses.
On the surface, this makes sense – every team will draw eventually. Thus, it is just a matter of time before you actually make money. However, the system has limitations. Your bankroll is not infinite, and if a team has a long enough streak without a draw, you will have no funds left.
If you want to try this risky strategy, we recommend starting with very low stakes, since your bet size will increase exponentially on a loss streak.
‘Draw No Bet’
A betting system which definitely deserves a mention is the ‘Draw No Bet’ market. Unlike a regular single bet with three choices i.e. Home team win, Away team win or draw, this bet eliminates the draw entirely, meaning you can only bet on a winner. If the game does end in a draw, this is considered a ‘No bet’, and your stake is refunded.
This gives punters an added safety net when betting, and could be another way of betting on an even match up. To get a better grasp of this market, check out our Draw No Bet guide.
ThePuntersPage Final Say
Betting on draws can be a smart betting strategy, but the unpopularity of draws with football fans means that it is often overlooked as a potential wager. Nevertheless, this means you can find plenty of value, as this can boost the bookies' odds on such an outcome. Our final advice would be to look at the betting strategies we listed above for a helping hand, look out for value bets, and make your own predictions and calculations!
Betting on Draws FAQs
There are various ways of draw betting. These include straight betting, the 2 out of 5 system, chasing, and backing the draw.
Bookies use models and mathematical formulas such as Poisson distribution and Normal distribution to predict football outcomes and draws. Draws are more likely when teams are evenly matched.
In general, the lower the league, the more draws you see. For example, Bundesliga had 23.7% draws in 2021/2022, while Bundesliga 2 had 28.3% draws in the same year. The league with the most draws in 2021/2022 was the Iran Azadegan League, the second division of Iranian football, with 51.61%!
The odds of a draw depend on the league. Here are a few examples from 2021/2022: EPL: 23.2% , League 1: 27.3%, Champions League: 19.8%, Serie A: 25.8%, and Bundesliga: 23.7%.
0 – 0 is often the most unpopular score for football fans. In the top five European leagues, there is usually one 0 – 0 result for every 12 to 13 games played. That gives a percentage of around 8% of games ending in 0 – 0.