Ben Swain (@Swaaainn) previews Brighton v Newcastle and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s Premier League fixture, by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
Brighton v Newcastle Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 27/04/19
- Time: 17:30
- Venue: AMEX Stadium
- Channel: BT Sport
There’s more at stake for Brighton as they host Newcastle in Saturday’s late kick-off.
Brighton need a victory to strengthen their grip on premier league safety while Newcastle’s fate was already sealed last weekend.
Newcastle are now mathematically safe following their 3-1 victory over Southampton in their last match.
Ayoze Perez’s hat-trick in that match followed his winner in the 1-0 victory over Leicester in the previous match. To find the net first for his third match in a row is best valued at 17/2.
The Toon Army are outsiders, best valued at 13/5, which could be for the lack of importance of this game to Newcastle’s season given their safety, or rather the forced changed of key personnel in their starting line-up.
Miguel Almiron was forced off injured against Southampton, last time out for Newcastle, and will miss the rest of the season and will be a huge miss for Newcastle, and midfield partner Perez.
Perez, who is the former’s attacking midfield partner, both part of the ‘three amigos’ as their relationship with Salomon Rondon has been termed, has scored 9 of his 10 goals this season since Almiron signed.
Similarly, Newcastle have 14 in 11, averaging 1.27 goals per game. Previous, they had tallied up 21 in 24 fixtures, an average of 0.8.
Anything other than defeat for Brighton would mean they remain out of the relegation zone above Cardiff, the home victory is priced at 11/8, while the draw’s value is 11/5, but that’s easier said that done recently for the hosts.
Brighton have lost six of their last seven matches in all competitions, including a 2-0 defeat to relegation rivals Cardiff, drawing the other sole match during that period.
Davy Propper is the only man unavailable for Brighton, due to injury.
Anthony Knockeart returns from suspension.
Miguel Almiron is sidelined for the rest of the season after being forced off with an injury in Newcastle’s previous match, against Southampton.
The other absentees are Sean Longstaff and Florien Lejeune.
Potential Brighton Starting XI: Ryan, Bernardo, Dunk, Duffy, Montoya, Bissouma, Stephens, Groß, March, Murray, Jahanbakhsh
Potential Newcastle Starting XI: Dubravka, Ritchie, Dummett, Lascelles, Fernandez, Yedlin, Shelvey, Diame, Muto, Perez, Joselu
Head To Head
- Brighton won the reverse fixture, 1-0, earlier in the season, to make it 3 games unbeaten against the North-east side.
- Newcastle have only beaten Brighton twice in four matches against Brighton. The Seagulls have won on four occasions.
Key Stats & Facts
- Newcastle have nothing to play for, having secure their premier league status already.
- Brighton haven’t won in their last seven games.
- Brighton – 11/8
- Draw – 11/5
- Newcastle – 13/5
Both motivation and Almiron are going to be a huge miss for Newcastle in this game.
Almiron has certainly aided Newcastle’s attack, with Newcastle’s aforementioned improved goal record coinciding with his acquisition, and Perez may cut a lonely figure without anyone to play off.
And with nothing left to play for for Newcastle, I can see them resting players, including key defender Schar who was substituted when his side were leading against Southampton.
Saying that, despite Brighton being the more up for it, they have been struggling of late and I find it hard to back them in this miserable run of form.
I fancy it to be a rather miserable game, with Newcastle’s old, lacklustre performance in front of goal mixed with a nervy Brighton side looking for any point they can get their hands on.