Daniil Medvedev v Rafael Nadal Betting Preview Odds & Tips | 07/09/19
Tennis specialist Craig Vickers (@craigvickers_) previews Sunday’s US Open men’s final between Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal and provides us with his best bets.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +18.4pts
2019 US Open Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 26 August-8 September
- Venue: Flushing Meadows, New York
- Channel: Amazon Prime
It is the climax of the Grand Slam season in Flushing Meadows as three-time champion Rafael Nadal squares off against the first-time major finalist Daniil Medvedev.
We were 0-for-2 in our semi-final bets as Grigor Dimitrov failed to land a set against the formidable Medvedev, despite leading 5-3 in the opening set tie-break. As we predicted, the Russian proved too strong from the back of the court, but Dimitrov will be pleased with the level he exhibited not only on Friday afternoon but the tournament as a whole.
Nadal, meanwhile, could not get the job done over Matteo Berrettini in under 28.5 games, although he looked in fine fettle after saving two set points from the Italian in the first set tie-break. The Spaniard did not drop serve all night after struggling against Diego Schwartzman in the last eight.
Medvedev will be keen to exact the wrongs of his chastening final defeat to Nadal in Montreal, with that much especially providing some much needed context when analysing this final.
The Russian failed to lay a glove on the Spaniard, winning only three games in a 6-3, 6-0 defeat in Canada, and the defeat laid bare Medvedev’s immediate disadvantage against perhaps the greatest grinder the sport has ever witnessed.
The 23-year-old enjoys time on the ball, preferring to allow his opponents to dictate, but Nadal poses a unique threat considering his topspin-laden forehand. It is a tactic that troubled the Russian in Montreal.
Those who tend to trouble Nadal tend to rush him, taking the ball extremely early (as Novak Djokovic did to great effect in the Australian Open final this year) or hitting with immense precision and accuracy (see: Roger Federer in the semi-finals of Wimbledon in July). Medvedev does hit with accuracy – almost alarming good at times – but he appears uncomfortable when asked to step up into rallies which Nadal challenged him to do in Canada that afternoon.
Experience, of course, factors into the equation and it was not so long ago – exactly two years, in fact – when Nadal eviscerated a fellow Grand Slam final debutant, Kevin Anderson, in New York. The promising aspect of Medvedev’s character is he rarely seems fazed by the occasion.
Crucial for the world number five, perhaps, will be to avoid a similar opening set to the Montreal experience. Berrettini showed the potential rewards for attacking the Spaniard and were it not for two blown set point opportunities in the first set shootout the semi-final could have shaped up to be a banana skin for the French Open champion.
Many were questioning the Russian’s tactical acumen after his reverse in Montreal, but his tennis IQ seems to have grown immeasurably over the following month, as Djokovic found to his detriment after leading by a set in the semi-finals in Cincinnati.
Why is why over 10.5 games in set one is appealing at 12/5, with three of Medvedev’s five matches at the US Open thus far running over that threshold.
Nadal has an innate ability to mentally grind down opponents and it will be interesting to see the Russian’s response should a tight opening set go the Spaniard’s way, as it did in his clash with Berrettini on Friday. Medvedev was a sitting duck for the second set in Montreal.
As such, Nadal -7.5 games at 6/5 could be worth a punt if the Russian, carrying a month of relentless physical and mental exertions, feels a comeback from two sets down is slightly beyond his reach.