Estonia v Germany Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 13/10/19

Estonia v Germany Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamescormack_) previews Estonia v Germany and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s Euro 2020 qualifier by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +19.05pts

Estonia v Germany Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 12/10/19
  • Time: 19:45
  • Venue: A. Le Coq Arena
  • Channel: Sky Sports Premier League

With just three games to go in qualifying, Germany will be looking to put themselves in a strong position in Group C going into their final two fixtures.

The Netherlands, Germany and Northern Ireland all sit on 12 points at the top of the group but come Monday, the two European powerhouses will likely be three points clear of their Irish counterparts.

With the Dutch still facing a trip to Northern Ireland, Die Mannschaft are firm favourites to top the group with their favourable end to the qualifying campaign. Joachim Low’s side host Belarus and Michael O’Neil’s impressive Northern Ireland side in their two remaining fixtures.

Low will be desperate to avenge Germany’s World Cup humiliation in Russia next year at the Euros. Since that tournament, Low has shifted the identity and philosophy of Die Mannschaft.

The World Cup-winning generation was over; it was time for a fresh breed of young and talented Germans to come to the fore.

Low’s ‘new-look’ Germany are a side dependent on speed and directness on the counter, often sitting back against decent opposition to be effective in transition. ‘Late-bloomer’ Serge Gnabry is key for Low, his pace and clinical nature make him a dream on the counter and he’s usually fed by the superb Joshua Kimmich and ever-present Toni Kroos in central midfield, whilst Kai Havertz has recently cemented himself in the German set-up.

The end-to-end nature of Leipzig pair Lucas Klostermann and Marcel Halstenberg at full-back is also pivotal.

Whilst there have been blips – a 4-2 home defeat to the Netherlands and surrendering a two-goal lead to Argentina, there’s no doubt that this core of German players are more than capable of competing at Euro 2020 – with Gnabry, Havertz and Kimmich leading the way.

Germany’s opponents on Sunday, Estonia, have been the ‘whipping-boys’ of Group C. They are yet to win a game and have picked up just a point – a 0-0 stalemate in Belarus. So far, the Estonians have conceded 18 in six and with their being no chance of qualification, Estonia fans will be hoping their side show some fight on Sunday. The cliché phrase ‘playing for pride’ is suitable here.

Team News        

Karel Voolaid has no new injury concerns and has included veteran goalscorer Sergei Zenjov and midfielder Konstantin Vassiljev in his team.

Estonia have experienced youth in his side too, with striker Rauno Sappinen having earned 23 caps at the age of 23, and midfielder Mattias Käit, who has 22 international appearances at the age of 21.

Joachim Löw has intertwined youth with experience for his team selection. Experienced heads such as Manuel Neuer, Ilkay Gündogan and Marco Reus were all selected, whilst young prospects like Havertz, Nadiem Amiri and Luca Waldschmidt are also included.

Die Mannschaft remain without injured duo Kroos (groin) and Jonas Hector (muscle injury), with Suat Serdar receiving a call up to replace them.

Potential Estonia Starting XI: Lepmets; Teniste, Tamm, Kams, Kallaste; Antonov, Vassiljev, Käit; Sappinen, Ojamaa, Zenjov​.

Potential Germany Starting XI: Neuer; Klostermann, Sule, Tah, Halstenberg; Kimmich, Havertz; Brandt, Reus; Gnabry.

Head To Head

  • All-time: Estonia-0, Draw-0, Germany-5
  • Germany have won these five meetings by an aggregate scoreline of 19-1.

Key Stats & Facts

  • The reverse fixture in qualifying ended 8-0 to Sunday’s visitors – with Serge Gnabry and Marco Reus both bagging braces.
  • The Germans have lost just once in qualifying – a 4-2 defeat to the Netherlands.
  • Estonia have gained just a point in qualification thus far.
  • The home side’s last win on home soil came over a year ago in May 2018 when they beat Lithuania 2-0 in the Baltic Cup.
  • Low’s side haven’t lost away in 2019, however, they were beaten away from home twice in October 2018, losing to both France and the Netherlands that month.
  • Serge Gnabry is Die Mannschaft’s top scorer in qualifying, the Bayern star has five in five.

Betting Odds

  • Estonia 70/1
  • Draw 16/1
  • Germany 1/16

The Verdict

I don’t think there’s much value in backing the Germans at 1/16 and overall, this is a game that doesn’t present much value with the visitors being such overwhelming favourites. However, I do like the look of Germany winning this one with a -3.5 handicap.

Whilst Estonia, on average, have only conceded three goals a game in qualifying, they did leak eight in the reverse fixture and let in four at home to the Dutch. Germany’s efficiency and ruthlessness is generally displayed with their ability in front of goal – you expect them to finish a majority of the chances they have. I expect them to create a lot on Sunday; Kimmich dictating proceedings as a deep-lying playmaker, Kai Havertz and Marco Reus dropping into pockets of space and providing for the likes of Timo Werner and Serge Gnabry, who is on fire at the moment. Also, their two full-backs carry a threat in the final third.

In the first half against Argentina, Germany often won the ball high up the pitch or around the halfway line and countered swiftly – I expect them to suffocate this massively inferior Estonia side and simply overwhelm them with their pressing and quickness on the break.

My next bet is for Die Mannschaft to be leading after 15 minutes. This German side have often started games quickly over the past year, scoring in the first 15 minutes in four of their five qualifiers thus far. Against Argentina, we saw something similar with Germany taking a 2-0 lead after 22 minutes. They seem to be at their efficient best early on in games, before tiring late on.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Germany -3.5 handicap – 11/10 (Bet365)
  • 1pt – Germany to lead after 15 mins – 15/8 (Coral)