Malta v Spain Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 26/03/19

Malta v Spain Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Josh Waudby (@Josh_Waudby) previews Malta v  Spain and provides us with his best bets for this Tuesday night qualifier by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +19.25pts

Malta v Spain Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 26/03/2019
  • Time: 19:45
  • Venue: Ta’Qali National Stadium
  • Channel: Sky Sports Football

Despite absolutely dominating the game Spain almost let a momentary lapse in concentration derail their perfect start to the Euro’s qualification, thankfully Captain Sergio Ramos replied with a penalty to ensure the points went to the Spaniards. The grit is clearly still with Spain, as despite giving away the penalty in the 65th minute which King calmly slotted away they didn’t lose spirit and within 6 minutes they were back in the lead.

Malta pulled out a minor shock in their first game. They came into the game underdogs against Faroe Islands and despite a 62nd minute red card and saving a penalty they managed to hold out to a 2-1 win after the Faroe Islands grabbed a 98th minute consolation goal. Despite this it would be extremely surprisingly to see Malta cause any sort of upset in this game, with a mere population of under 450,000 it is over 100 times smaller than Spain’s population, and this reflects in the quality of footballers they produce. One thing for sure Malta do have is comradery, their full squad play in the Malta domestic league together.

This is the final game before the international break is over and it doesn’t resume until June, in which Spain have games against the Faroe Islands and Sweden, should they win both it is likely that Spain’s qualification will be all wrapped up. Malta on the other hand have a huge task ahead of themselves to qualify, but they couldn’t have got off to a better start. Malta have fixtures against both Sweden and Romania in which both games will be very difficult for them, however any points will be welcomed by the side.

Team News

I would expect Spain to field a slightly different 11 to the previous game, just because they know they have the upper hand against Malta. It will be a good chance for them to not only give players debut’s but also try a new system, likely a lot of the main stars will take a rest.

Potential Malta Starting XI: Hogg, Muscat, Aguis, Borg, Mbong, Muscat, Fenech, Failla, Corbolan, Mifsud, Schembri

Potential Spain Starting XI: Kepa, Roberto, Martinez, Ramos, Bernat, Rodri, Ceballos, Canales, Mata, Rodrigo, Muniain

Head To Head

  • Spain and Malta haven’t met for over 20 years. However prior to this they have met 6 times, 4 times in the World Cup and 2 times in the Euro’s. Of these games Spain won all 6, with an aggregate score of 28-3.
  • Spain beat Malta a staggering 12-1 in 1983 in a Euro qualifier.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Spain have scored 15 goals in their last 5 games, and two of them they were on the losing end of the tie.
  • Malta have conceded 11 in their last 5, which featured 2 losses and 3 score draws.

Betting Odds

  • Malta 125/1
  • Draw 20/1
  • Spain 1/33

The Verdict

The game is shockingly difficult to find value, given Spain’s outright price for the game is as low as 1/50 with some bookmakers.

It is likely Spain will want the game to put to bed by half time, or even earlier if possible. Spain often are more of a slow starter team, but after watching how quickly they flew out of the traps against Norway and the sheer gulf in quality between the two sides it would be hard to see how Malta won’t be a few goals behind by half time.

I think it is also worth a punt on Spain to be ahead by 15 minutes. The same reasons as before I would expect Spain to have the game wrapped up very early. Due to Spain’s lack of games against Malta it is hard to evidence the gulf in difference between the sides, but the odds illustrate enough how much of a walk in the park this should be for Spain.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Spain -1 first half goal handicap – 1/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
  • 1pt – Spain leading after 15 minutes – 17/10 (William Hill)