Josh Waudby (@Josh_Waudby) previews Newcastle v Southampton and provides us with his best bets for Saturdays late kick off by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +8.05pts
Newcastle v Southampton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 20/04/2019
- Time: 17:30
- Venue: St James' Park
- Channel: BT Sport
Newcastle have all but confirmed once again their status as a Premier League side for next season. There win against Leicester last Friday has put them on to 38 points, which is near on impossible for Cardiff to catch them it would mean them both winning and losing every respective game left. Despite this it is Newcastle’s only win in their last 4 matches. Southampton post much better form with 3 wins in their last 4, including victories against Spurs and high flyers Wolves.
Newcastle boast great home form however when the toon faithful is in full voice. They play infront of a packed out crowd and is very intimidating for any away side to take part in. They have 4 wins in their last 5 home matches with their only loss coming at the most recent attempt, a poor 1-0 defeat to Palace which was settled on a penalty. Southampton sit only 2 points behind Newcastle, so it is also unlikely they will get caught by the drop, however if both Brighton and Cardiff can produce a few results the pressure will soon build up onto the Saints.
Both sides should they stay in the division will be seeking for a more successful season at the next attempt, and hopefully never getting forced into any sort of survival race. For Newcastle the problem comes with buying players, with Ashley not keen on getting his purse out for Rafa. Southampton’s problem comes at the other end, as they struggle to keep hold of their players. In recent years we have seen Van Dijk, Mane, Schneiderlin, Tadic and a whole host of other names including revolutionary manager Pochettino leave the coast for bigger and better things.
Newcastle’s only injuries are Lejeune and Longstaff who have both recently been ruled out with long term injuries and are both likely to miss the start of next season.
Southampton have Lemina currently out injured, aswell as youngster Michael obafemi. Valery is also a concern but is likely to get the nod after some impressive displays.
Potential Newcastle Starting XI: Dubravka, Tedlin, Schär, Lascelles, Dummett, Ritchie, Pérez, Hayden, Ki Sung-Yeung, Almirón, Rondón
Potential Southampton Starting XI: Gunn, Vestergaard, Yoshida, Bednarek, Valery, Bertrand, Høkbjerg, Romeu, Ward-Prowse, Ings, Redmond
Head To Head
- The last 5 games between the pair have dished out 3 draws and a win each.
- Discounting the 0-0 in the most recent meeting, the 4 prior to this contained 15 goals, an average of 3.75 per game.
Key Stats & Facts
- There have been 15 goals in the last 5 games between the two, despite the most recent ending goalless.
- Newcastle have conceded in 70% of their home games this season.
- Historically the clubs have an equal record against eachother, with 37 wins a pair and 23 draws.
- Newcastle 7/5
- Draw 11/5
- Southampton 2/1
One angle I’m liking the look of for this game is both teams to score. The stats don’t particularly sell the bet on their own, but with both teams playing with a lot more freedom after recent victories. Newcastle have only seen BTTS in 2 of the last 5 games, and Southampton have landed the bet 4 in the last 5. 3 of the last 5 meetings between the two have also seen both teams to score, and plenty of goals if you discount the 0-0 meeting in the first half of this campaign.
I’m also happy to take a punt on Newcastle to win and paring that with the both teams to score we see odds of 9/2 which I am extremely happy to get on board with. Given the goal stats from before and adding to Newcastle’s strong home form of 4 wins from 5, and Southampton conceding an average of 1.5 goals in their last 4 premier league away games, 9/2 looks a more than fair price for the bet.