Sampdoria v AC Milan Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 30/03/19
Sam Langston (@Samlan98) previews Sampdoria v AC Milan and provides us with his best bets for Saturday evening’s Serie A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +0.83pts
Sampdoria v AC Milan Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 30/03/2019
- Time: 19:30
- Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris
- Channel: FreeSports
Serie A returns this weekend after a short hiatus due to the international break and Saturday’s standout game pits together two teams fighting towards the top end of the table.
Both Sampdoria and AC Milan have European aspirations heading into the final stretch of the season. Whilst Rino Gattuso’s Rossoneri occupy the fourth and final Champions League position, Samp have enjoyed another excellent campaign and sit just three points off a Europa League spot.
Ex-Empoli gaffer Marco Giampaolo has done a stellar job at Sampdoria since being appointed in summer 2016, steering the Blucerchiati to back-to-back top-10 finishes for the first time in over a decade. The Swiss’ attractive football, alongside an astute transfer strategy, has made for an effective model whereby Doria are functioning impressively both on and off the field.
Giampaolo has had to deal with the sales of a number of Samp’s standout stars, notably Milan Škriniar, Lucas Torreira, Luis Muriel, and Patrik Schick have all departed for pastures new. The Genoa side received a sizeable sum in transfer fees for the aforementioned quartet and a chunk of this has been re-invested in youngsters who possess the scope for development and potential sell-on-value.
Signed for just over £1m in August 2017 from Dutch side FC Twente, Danish defender Joachim Andersen is the prime example of Samp’s shrewd recruitment strategy. Polish playmaker Karol Linetty and Belgian ace Dennis Praet are two other players signed on the premise of their potential who are now thriving under the guidance of Giampaolo.
In particular, Andersen is fast developing into one of Serie A’s most valuable assets. He’s been Samp’s top performer so far this term alongside free-scoring Fabio Quagliarella and his matured displays have caught the attention of a number of the big boys on the continent. Andersen, 22, is being touted for a big money move in the next transfer window, with Spurs, Man United, and Inter Milan all on the list of clubs reportedly sniffing around.
As alluded to, veteran forward Fabio Quagliarella is another one of Giampaolo’s guns whose had an exceptional season. The 36-year-old Italy international currently tops Serie A’s scoring charts and recently became the Azzurri’s oldest ever goal-getter, bagging a brace in their 6-0 demolition job of Liechtenstein. Only Milan’s Krzysztof Piątek has been more clinical than Quagliarella over the course of the campaign, with the pair outperforming their expected totals by substantial 4.14 and 5.97 figures.
January capture Piątek has eight goals in 10 since joining Gennaro Gattuso’s group from Samp’s city comrades Genoa and he’s continued his fine form over the international break, converting Poland’s winner in their 1-0 triumph over Austria. Gattuso will be hoping talisman Piątek can fire his reeling teammates to victory on familiar soil this Saturday, after a 3-2 derby defeat to Inter before the break brought a halt to Milan’s 10-game unbeaten run in the league.
Still, a significant four-point buffer separates the Rossoneri from Roma in the battle to compete amongst Europe’s elite next term, so this stands Gatusso’s men in good stead heading into the business end of the season.
Samp pair Albin Ekdal and Ronaldo Vieira sustained knee injuries on international duty and are ruled out of this one. Czech midfielder Jakub Jankto is the main candidate to fill the void in the centre of the park.
Giacomo Bonaventura is Milan’s sole absentee.
Potential Sampdoria Starting XI: Audero, Murru, Colley, Andersen, Sala, Jankto, Praet, Linetty, Ramírez, Gabbiadini, Quagliarella.
Potential AC Milan Starting XI: Donnarumma, Rodríguez, Romagnoli, Musacchio, Calabria, Bakayoko, Kessié, Paquetá, Calhanoglu, Suso, Piątek.
Head To Head
- Milan have won the last three meetings between the sides.
Key Stats & Facts
- Sampdoria are averaging Serie A’s highest xG per-game figure since the turn of the year.
- Marco Giampaolo’s men have notched in four of their five home fixtures against top-half teams. They’ve managed just a solitary clean sheet when hosting the same calibre of side, though.
- Milan are yet to record a shutout against the top 10 on the road.
- Sampdoria – 47/20
- Draw – 56/25
- AC Milan – 7/5
There’s quite a disparity between the quality of the top-half and bottom-half in Serie A this season. If we eliminate the records both Sampdoria and Milan hold against the lower half of the division, a meagre four clean sheets have only been managed between them in 26 Serie A outings – that’s just a smidgen over 15%.
However, with the proficiency of Fabio Quagliarella and Krzysztof Piątek in their respective ranks, there’s always going to be the potential for goals when these clubs compete in domestic action. In fact, the sides have notched in 19 of their 26 (73.1%) combined tussles with top-half teams, with BTTS banking in seven out of their 10 respective home and away duels against the same calibre of opposition.
With this in mind, we can capitalize on the attractive 17/20 that Ladbrokes offer for both teams to oblige at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris. The price on BTTS has only been bigger when Milan have visited: Chievo, Genoa, Bologna, and Frosinone.
Each of these outfits pose significantly less of an offensive threat than Sampdoria, so there’s merit in supporting Ladbrokes’ quote on both sides finding the net on Saturday evening.