Spain v Norway Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 23/03/19

Spain v Norway Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Josh Waudby (@Josh_Waudby) previews Spain v Norway and provides us with his best bets for the first of Spain’s Euro 2020 qualifiers by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +8.0pts

Spain v Norway Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 23/03/2019
  • Time: 19:45
  • Venue: Estadio de Mestalla
  • Channel: Sky Sports Football

Spain will be looking to bounce back after their poor summer in 2018, which saw them have a shocking world cup and an early exit to Russia in only the last 16. That is now two consecutive World Cups were Spain have failed to get past the last 16. The 2014 World Cup was even worse when they were knocked out in the group stage. Spain were also very underwhelming at the 2016 Euro’s, when they also got knocked out in the round of 16. However, prior to this they won back to back European championships aswell as the world cup sandwiched in-between, which was somewhat of a golden era for the Spaniards.

Norway Despite not qualifying for the 2018 world cup they have seen an upturn in form and have a new generation of players coming through. Norway will be looking to qualify for the Euro’s for only the second time in their history, and what would be the first time in the past 20 years. Norway’s only European Championship saw them knocked out in the group stage, coming 3rd behind Spain and what then was Yugoslavia, which has since been dissolved. Norway however do come into the qualifiers having lost only one game since December 2017, although it is worth noting that due to their failure to qualify for major tournaments, they have only played 10 games since the turn to 2018. Their recent run of form saw them top group C at the new system in the UEFA Nationals League, which means they are promoted to group B for the next round of games.

These qualifiers could be a turning point for both sides. Spain looking to bounce back from their poor form of late at major tournaments, and Norway looking to become more regular participants at such events. Both sides will be eager to kick their campaigns off to good starts and given the group they are in, both countries will also fancy their chances of qualifying.

Team News

Spain have some surprising faces missing from their squad. The likes of Diego Costa and Dani Carvajal are out injured however many big names such as Isco, Koke and Thiago have all been snubbed by former Barca Manager Luis Enrique. Surprising inclusions such as Veteran Jesus Navas and Jamie Mata who is helping Getafe push for Champions League could also see themselves in the starting 11 come Saturday.

Norway see dubbed wonder kid Martin Odegaard back into the squad. The Real Madrid player is currently out on loan at Vitesse and has played a big part for Vitesse season, also racking up 5 goals in the process. He is starting to show glimpses of what Real Madrid saw in him back when they originally bought him. Josh King returns after being left out for the friendlies in late 2018 and if his recent form in the Premier League is anything to go on, he may prove pivotal for Norway in the upcoming Qualifiers.

Potential Spain Starting XI: De Gea, Alba, Ramos, Martinez, Roberto, Busquets, Parejo, Fabian, Rodrigo, Morata, Asensio

Potential Norway Starting XI: Jarstein, Meling, Nordveit, Rosted, Elabdellaoui, Elyounoussi, Henriksen, Selnaes, Odegaard, Kamara, King

Head To Head

  • The sides have only met 3 times in the last 19 years given the unlikelihood of European countries meeting each other in major competitions, especially when Norway often Struggle to qualify.
  • The 3 games saw 2 Spanish victories and a surprise Norway victory in Spain back in 2000.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Spain are 4-1-1 against Norway in total.
  • Norway have only failed to score once in the last calendar year.
  • Spain have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.

Betting Odds

  • Spain 1/5
  • Draw 6/1
  • Norway 16/1

The Verdict

It is very difficult to find any value in this game, with the hosts priced up as low as 2/11, which is probably quite short given the summer they had. Despite this I do expect the home side to come out victorious, but I don’t expect it to be as simple for them as the odds suggest. If their recent form is anything to go by it will be much more of a task than the 2/11 on offer.

One angle I do like is the both teams to score market. You can get both teams to score currently at 11/8, which is a cracking price, however I also fancy Spain to get the victory. Spain have only kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 games, and Norway have only failed to score once in their last 10 games, so stats wise it looks a very strong play. Therefore a Spain win and both teams to score looks a very appealing price at 11/5.

Josh King also looks a great price for a goal, at 7/2 and given his current form in the Premier League against some of the world’s best defenders he will have nothing to fear and will be flying in confidence. Despite going the whole nations league without a goal, prior to the tournament he had 7 goals in 10 games. He has also racked up 11 goals for Bournemouth domestically this season and comes into the Internationals on the back of a brace at the weekend against Newcastle.

Marco Asensio also looks a nice price to score anytime at 13/10. Should he be favoured a start in one of Spain’s attacking roles It would be likely to see him on the scoresheet. He did score in the Nations League for Spain but only managed the one goal, however he was only given two starts and with the injuries to the likes of Costa and Aspas its fair to say that he is one of the leading contenders for a start.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Spain win and both Teams to score – 11/5 (BoyleSports)
  • 0.5pts – Josh King anytime scorer – 7/2 (Bet365)
  • 1pt – Marco Asensio anytime scorer – 13/10 (Bet365)