Tottenham v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 01/06/19

Liverpool v Tottenham Champions League Final Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Football specialist James O’Rourke (@JamesOR1) previews Liverpool v Tottenham and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s UEFA Champions League Final by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -3.46pts

Tottenham v Liverpool Champions League Final Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 01/06/19
  • Time: 20:00
  • Venue: Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid
  • Channel: BT Sport, BT Sport YouTube Channel

It would be fair to say that you’d have got big odds on a Liverpool versus Tottenham UEFA Champions League Final at various points during the semi-final stages! Nevertheless, here we are. Liverpool made history in coming from behind to defeat Barcelona at Anfield, whilst Spurs’ late show meant they broke the hearts of Ajax in Amsterdam. The home of Atletico Madrid is the destination for this European event, and Atletico Madrid boss Diego Simeone might appreciate the defensive aspect to this one. Many tip this to be tight, and possibly go all the way to penalties.

Liverpool go in search of their sixth European Cup/Champions League title, the last of which came in 2005 in Istanbul. They are deemed the favourites to claim the crown, one year after they claimed runners-up medals behind Real Madrid. On the other hand, Spurs are very much in unknown territory on the European stage. They do have tow UEFA Cup and a solitary UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup to their name, but victory on Saturday would top the lot.

Liverpool versus Tottenham. Jurgen Klopp versus Mauricio Pochettino. Whatever way you look at it, this is a game which is primed to deliver and is perfectly fitting to take centre stage in front of a world audience.

Team News

Jurgen Klopp has confirmed that Roberto Firmino is likely to recover from a groin issue and be involved in this weekend’s game. Given he hasn’t played since a 13-minute substitute appearance in the semi-final first leg defeat in Barcelona, it would appear that a place on the bench is most likely for the Brazilian. Bad news however comes in the form of Naby Keita being unavailable because of an adductor problem. Another positive selection headache for Klopp is which of Georginio Wijnaldum or James Milner is part of the central midfield trio.

As for Mauricio Pochettino and Spurs, there is every chance Harry Kane could make a remarkable return to the squad, having been sidelined due to injury since the semi-final first leg clash with Manchester City. The fact he has also been included in England’s UEFA Nations League squad suggests he is possibly winning his fitness battle. Still, a place among the subs appear to be his best hope. Harry Winks was not selected for England, so it could be that he is losing his respective battle against injury to be fit for Saturday’s match. Pochettino is also hoping to have Jan Vertonghen and Davinson Sanchez fit for selection. Vincent Janssen is ineligible.

Potential Liverpool Starting XI: Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson, Henderson, Fabinho, Milner, Salah, Origi, Mane.

Potential Tottenham Starting XI: Lloris, Trippier, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose, Wanyama, Alli, Sissoko, Eriksen, Son, Lucas.

Head To Head

  • Liverpool are going for a perfect three out of three 2018/19 record versus Tottenham having won the two Premier League meetings earlier in the campaign. Back in September, Liverpool came away from Wembley with a 2-1 win, whilst a very late own goal from Toby Alderweireld in March meant Liverpool recorded another 2-1 win over Spurs.
  • It would be fair to say that Liverpool are something of a bogey team for Tottenham. Spurs last claimed three points over the red team from Merseyside in October 2017, but their second most recent victory over them would be all the way back in November 2012. That means Tottenham have won only twice in the last 16 head-to-head contests (15 league, one League Cup).

Key Stats & Facts

  • For all that Tottenham ended the season on a real high with their dramatic late turnaround to beat Ajax in the semi-final second leg, their form over the last few months is actually quite poor. They’ve won just twice in their last eight in league and cup, suffering five defeats in that period.
  • The only blemish only Liverpool’s recent record was the heavy 4-0 defeat to a Lionel Messi inspired Barcelona on May 1st. That was their first defeat since Wolves defeated a weakened Reds side in an FA Cup tie in January. Manchester City inflicted Liverpool their only Premier League loss on the campaign a few days prior.
  • Liverpool have scored 22 goals on route to Saturday’s UEFA Champions League Final. These came from 133 shots on goal that they’ve had in the tournament. The deadly trio of Salah, Firmino and Mane were responsible for 12 of the goals. Tottenham scored 20 goals from a total of 128 attempts, with Kane hitting the back of the net on five occasions.
  • Neither of Liverpool or Tottenham won their respective group earlier in the competition, with both finishing in second place. Liverpool finished two-points behind PSG, whilst Spurs finished ahead of Inter Milan on goal difference, and behind Barcelona.
  • Both sides have played 12 UEFA Champions League games to reach the final. Interestingly, only 4/12 of Liverpool’s clashes would have seen BTTS pay out, whilst Spurs only have 4/12 clean sheets.

Betting Odds

  • Liverpool 10/11
  • Draw 12/5
  • Tottenham 3/1

The Verdict

There are many reasons for believing Liverpool or Tottenham will end up raising the famous trophy late on Saturday night. Liverpool are favourites to do so, and they only lost once in the Premier League, finishing well clear of Tottenham in the process. The way they performed in the second leg versus Barcelona was almost perfection, and a repeat of that display makes them hard to beat. Spurs made the final the hard way, and you could be forgiven for thinking their name could very well be on the trophy. They look in a perilous position in their group stage, VAR saved them very, very late against Man City, whilst another late show saw them progress against Ajax. A case can be made for both, and as such, I can’t truly commit or one or the other.

I do however like the prospect of this going into extra time. In a one-off match such as this, there really is not much to separate the two. Although it is essentially a Premier League battle, I fancy this to be played out as a European match. History also suggests that there is every chance that extra time could be the way to go. Three of the last seven finals has done so, and seven of the past 18 has also done so. The last all-English final between Man Utd and Chelsea in 2008 went all the way to penalties.

Also, there has been too much to happen in this competition, for these two teams especially, for their not to be any more late drama. We’ll happily play the prospect of there being a late goal in this one. There has been nine goals in Liverpool’s route to the final which has arrived from the 76th minute onwards. For Spurs, there has been 12.

I’m happy to plump for this being goalless at the break as well. Remember, it will have been just a day shy of three weeks since these last two teams played. Can we really expect them to go into this at full throttle? I don’t think so.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt – Extra Time ‘Yes’ – 131/50 (Marathon)
  • 1pt – Time of Last Goal (76-Full Time) – 11/10 (Betway)
  • 1pt – 0-0 Half Time Score – 11/5 (Marathon)