West Ham v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 04/02/19

West Ham v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews West Ham United v Liverpool and provides us with his best bets for Monday night’s Premier League clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more. 

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -0.44pts

West Ham v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 04/02/19
  • Time: 20:00
  • Venue: London Stadium
  • Channel: Sky Sports Main Event

With Manchester City beating Arsenal 3-1 on Sunday, the pressure is on Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool to once again give themselves some breathing space at the top of the table.

After City were beaten at St. James’ Park on Tuesday, the Reds failed to capitalise and extend their lead to seven points the following night. Instead they were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Leicester, only opening up a 5 point lead at the top, a lead that was cut to two after Sunday’s result.

Last Wednesday certainly wasn’t Liverpool’s best performance in what has the potential to be a historic season. This, along with the 2013/14 campaign, has got to be Liverpool’s best chance of winning that elusive Premier League title.

The dynamic, free-flowing, solid and most importantly balanced squad that Jurgen Klopp has got now has all been thanks to the German’s long-term project for the club. When he arrived in 2015 he was gifted with the likes of Christian Benteke and a 35-year old Kolo Toure. Under his command, Liverpool have gradually assembled one of the strongest squads in Europe, a squad that holds Europe’s current best centre-back, a future great centre-back, two full-backs with elite potential and a PFA Player of the Year winner.

This game at West Ham is one of their toughest fixtures left this season and I think a win here could go a long way to winning the title. Two of their three remaining games against the top 6 are at home and the typically tough Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park in March may be a little easier if Marco Silva is still in the job. I’m sure that they wouldn’t want the race to go down to the wire however, as they host giant-killers Wolves on the final day whilst City travel to Brighton.

As I just mentioned, this fixture will be a tough one for Klopp’s men and I’m sure that Manuel Pellegrini will want to do his old club a favour, even though they sort of brushed him aside to bring in Guardiola.

The Hammers come into this one on a poor run of form. They have lost two PL games without scoring in a row and were knocked out by League 1 Wimbledon in the FA Cup just last week. Pellegrini will be looking to get his star-men firing again, Felipe Anderson hasn’t scored in the league since his brace against Southampton at the end of December, whilst Marko Arnautovic has been in-and-out the squad as of late with injury problems.

Looking to make things difficult for Liverpool on Monday night will be Declan Rice in midfield and Issa Diop at the back. 20-year old Rice has had a stellar season in a defensive-midfield role for the Hammers; he is exceptional at breaking up play and possesses great composure when he’s on the football. Diop, a summer signing from Toulouse, has shown great promise since his arrival. The 22-year old has already said he’s relishing the challenge of facing Mohamed Salah and with the intelligence and physicality that Diop holds, it could be a challenging night for the Egyptian (especially if Klopp plays Salah at the top of a 4231 or central in a 433).

One thing that’s for sure is that I don’t think it will be as comfortable for Liverpool compared to when these sides met on the opening day of the season, with the Reds running out 4-0 winners at Anfield.

Team News 

Fabian Balbuena and January signing Samir Nasri are out for this one with Marko Arnautovic a doubt after the knock he picked up against Wolves in midweek. Manuel Pellegrini revealed that Lukasz Fabianski will be available and Aaron Cresswell is in contention for Monday night’s game.

Jurgen Klopp welcomes back James Milner from a one-game suspension but this has come too soon for Trent Alexander-Arnold to return. Joe Gomez is still out with a lower leg fracture.

Potential West Ham Starting XI: Fabianski, Zabaleta, Diop, Ogbonna, Masuaku, Rice, Snodgrass, Noble, Obiang, Anderson, Arnautovic.

Potential Liverpool Starting XI: Alisson, Milner, Van Dijk, Matip, Robertson, Keita, Wijnaldum, Henderson, Mane, Firmino, Salah.

Head To Head

  • All-time: West Ham-28, Draw-36, Liverpool-74
  • Liverpool unbeaten in last 5 PL outings v West Ham (W4, D1)

Key Stats & Facts

  • Liverpool have the chance to extend their lead at the top to five points with a win on Monday.
  • The Reds have only lost once this season (2-1 at City).
  • Their 1-1 draw against Leicester on Wednesday was only the 4th time this season where the opposition has had a higher xG than Liverpool in the game.
  • Mo Salah is following on from his PFA POTY award last season, he’s currently the league’s top scorer with 16 goals.
  • Away from home Liverpool average under 2 goals a game, at Anfield, they average over 2.6.
  • Only two teams have started February with a Premier League lead of five points or more and not won the title (Newcastle 1995 and Arsenal 2002).
  • Mohamed Salah has scored four goals in three Premier League appearances against West Ham.
  • West Ham are looking to win three consecutive league and cup games at the London Stadium for the first time in what will be their 61st match at the venue.
  • Manuel Pellegrini has suffered five Premier League defeats against Liverpool, more than versus any other club.
  • The Hammers have only scored once in 3 games, they now come up against the league’s best defence who have conceded 14 in 24 PL games this season.
  • Their record v the top six this season: W2 (both at home), D1, L4.

Betting Odds

  • West Ham 15/2
  • Draw 4/1
  • Liverpool 1/3

The Verdict

I think we could see an edgy, nervy encounter here. In recent weeks, Liverpool’s games have usually been before City’s, forcing their title challengers to play catch-up. Now City have gone out and got three points to trim Liverpool’s lead to two, I think we could see Liverpool playing with a little more tension and less fluidity.

The home side have also been struggling in front of goal as of late, their last goal coming from Declan Rice in their 1-0 win over Arsenal three weeks ago. The possibility of Arnautovic not playing also takes a lot of goals out of this side, if the Austrian isn’t deemed fit then the home side will have to look towards an out of form Felipe Anderson to do something special. With 19 of West Ham’s 30 goals coming in the second half and Liverpool scoring 33/55 in the second half, I think this game has definitely got the potential of livening up in the second period.

Liverpool also have only scored once in the first half in their last 4 PL outings.

There is definitely the potential of West Ham getting something from this game. Liverpool’s defence has the likes of TAA and Joe Gomez missing and this is a game that the fans will want to see a good a performance from their side after what has been a terrible couple of weeks. Instead of backing them to get a result, I’m going to back them to score along with their opponents in what I think will be an entertaining second-half at the London Stadium on Monday.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt – BTTS in the 2nd half – 63/25 (Marathon Bet)
  • 2pts – Highest scoring half: 2nd– Evens (Bet365)
  • 1pt – 0-0 at half time- 11/4 (Spread Ex)