West Ham v Newcastle Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 02/03/19

West Ham v Newcastle Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews West Ham United v Newcastle United and provides us with his best bets for this Saturday’s evening Premier League game by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -3.39pts

West Ham United v Newcastle United Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 02/03/19
  • Time: 17:30
  • Venue: London Stadium
  • Channel: Sky Sports

Rafa Benitez takes his inform Newcastle side to the London Stadium this Saturday evening to play against a West Ham side that have also had a pretty good February.

The Hammers only picked up five points out of a possible 12 last month, a stretch of games that included the top two sides in the PL at the moment. They were able to pick up a well-earned point at home to Liverpool whilst putting up a defensively sound performance at the Etihad on Wednesday, only losing to a soft Sergio Aguero penalty.

After what was a pretty poor January, losing to Wimbledon in the FA Cup as well as being soundly beaten by Bournemouth and Wolves in the league, it was important that Manuel Pellegrini re-established some consistency and stability in February, which he certainly did.

One man who has impressed me for West Ham this season is Issa Diop. The Frenchman put in another top-drawer display against the vaunted City attack and has excelled in games against the two North London clubs as well as United and Chelsea in his debut season in the Premier League. The 22-year old joined from Toulouse in the summer for a fee of around £25m, not only has he proved his worth, but he seems to have been a great investment and a player who has the potential to be sold on for a lot more in the future.

As for the away side, they come into this one full of confidence. They have been superb since their FA Cup exit to Watford, beating Man City at St. James’ Park and losing just once in February (to Spurs in which they defended superbly and it was only a Dubravka error that prevented them from leaving with a point).

Their last two victories have been comfortable 2-0 victories at home to Huddersfield and Burnley respectively and before those games; they were a last-second Willy Boly header away from beating 7th place Wolves at Molineux.

Newcastle fans should be excited with the core of players they have at the club at the moment. They have a sound keeper in Dubravka, three very good centre-halves, a young and talented centre-midfielder in Sean Longstaff, a playmaker in Miguel Almiron and a proven PL striker in Salomon Rondon. I think this is a very capable Newcastle team with a brilliant manager in Rafa Benitez, if they are able to keep all their pieces this summer, then I think they may be a team to look out for next season.

With Newcastle’s impressive run and West Ham’s hit and miss form (in terms of collecting points) over the past month, both sides are now in a position where really they don’t have much to play for, just a top half position. Newcastle sit in 13th and are 6 points clear of the relegation zone, which may seem not a massive gap, but in reality, they’re about 2 wins away from safety whilst West Ham sit in 10th, five points above their visitors on Saturday and four behind Wolves in seventh.

Team News        

Long-term absentee Fabian Balbuena is set to return this month whilst Jack Wilshere, Carlos Sanchez, Andriy Yarmolenko and Winston Reid are all out for the foreseeable future. The Hammers also have issues with three full-backs; Aaron Cresswell (toe), Pablo Zabaleta (back) and Arthur Masuaku all missed the trip to City and are doubts for this one. On a positive note, Samir Nasri returned to the West Ham line up against his former club in mid-week, he will likely start this one as well. Marko Arnautovic is also likely to return to the starting line-up after missing the City game through illness.

Jonjo Shelvey, who hasn’t played for the Magpies since early January, is now back to full fitness but will find it hard to get back into the starting XI with the recent performances of Isaac Hayden and Sean Longstaff. Ciaran Clark and Rob Elliot are out for the visitors.

Potential West Ham Starting XI: Fabianski, Fredericks, Diop, Ogbonna, Johnson, Rice, Antonio, Noble, Nasri, Anderson, Arnautovic.

Potential Newcastle Starting XI: Dubravka, Yedlin, Schar, Lascelles, Lejeune, Ritchie, Perez, Longstaff, Hayden, Almiron, Rondon.

Head To Head

  • All-time: West Ham-41, Draw-37, Newcastle-54.
  • West Ham won the reverse fixture 3-0 at St. James’ Park.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Newcastle should count themselves lucky this season, they’ve conceded 34 times this season- 5th best in the PL, but have an xA (expected goals against) of 45.45 which is an 11.45 difference- highest in PL.
  • Despite their impressive home form, Newcastle haven’t won away since their 1-0 over Huddersfield back in December.
  • Salomon Rondon is Newcastle’s top scorer with 7 PL goals. Felipe Anderson is the home side’s top scorer with 8 whilst Marko Arnautovic has 7.
  • Newcastle are looking to win consecutive away Premier League matches against West Ham for the first time since September 2006.
  • West Ham have lost just one of their last seven home Premier League games, and are unbeaten in their last four at the London Stadium (W2 D2).
  • Newcastle manager Rafael Benitez has won more Premier League games against West Ham than he has vs any other opponent (11).

Betting Odds

  • West Ham 6/5
  • Draw 5/2
  • Newcastle 11/4

The Verdict

I think the stats would suggest we could be in for a low-scorer here. Newcastle have a poor away record and have scored just 10 times in 13 league games on the road this season. However, I’m going to go against the grain for this one and back goals. West Ham, as you’d expect, are much better in front of goal at home, scoring 21 in 14 and have scored in every home game against teams in the bottom half this season. Newcastle’s form has also convinced me that there will be goals. Sitting in a comfortable position (in terms of relegation), I would expect them to go out and play with a lot of freedom, just like West Ham should be, whilst the purchase of Miguel Almiron has made them much more of a threat in the final third. The likes of Almiron, Rondon and Perez have the potential to hurt a depleted West Ham backline whilst the likely return of Marko Arnautovic will be a major boost for the Hammers this weekend. I’m expecting an end-to-end encounter with over 2.5 goals looking good at evens.

The outright market is a tough one to call purely because of Newcastle’s form. I think West Ham will win but I’m not too confident. Instead, I’m looking at Matt Ritchie to be carded at 18/5. The Scotsman has adapted well to his new role at LWB in Benitez’s system but has already been booked on 8 occasions this season, more than any other Newcastle player (level with Fabian Schar). Ritchie has also been booked in 2 of his last 3 appearances and on Saturday, he will likely come up against Michail Antonio, who holds a lot of pace and has the potential to cause the out of position Ritchie some problems.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Over 2.5 goals – Evens (Betfair)
  • 1pt – Matt Ritchie to be carded- 18/5 (Bet Victor)