2019 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

2019 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Golf specialist Rob Taylor (@RobTaylorSport) previews The Charles Schwab Challenge and provides us with his best bets for this week’s event.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +48.5pts

2019 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: Thursday 23rd – Sunday 26th
  • Venue: Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Dallas
  • Channel: Sky Sports Golf

It was an imperious display by Brooks Koepka at Bethpage last week, to secure his 4th major champion and become the first player to hold back to back PGA and US Open Championships. Whilst the tournament looked over on Friday evening, holding an astonishing lead, Koepka provided some drama come Sunday evening, by letting slip a 7 shot lead and briefly, DJ gave the raucous New York crowd a reason to raise the volume even louder. However, Koepka came through, and deservedly takes over as World Number 1.

It was a mixed bag for my picks, with main bet Jon Rahm inexcusably missing the cut after a bright first round. Jason Day dropped out of contention, and Xander Schauffele bogeyed his final 5 holes to painfully fall away from what looked like a certain top 10 each way pay out. This left Patrick Cantlay at 45/1 to bring us into a small profit for the week with a very respectable T3 finish.

On to this week and the return to Colonial for the newly named Charles Schwab Challenge. Justin Rose is the defending champion and heads the market alongside Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth. We have a pretty decent field for the week after a major, and remember there are only two events, this week and next, before the US Open is upon us.

Key Stats & Facts

Colonial is one of the most iconic golf courses in the United States.  A true technical test, this tree lined parkland course measures 7,209 yards and is a par 70. A very different challenge to what the players faced at Bethpage last week. Tight off the tee, players are faced with a positional challenge, whilst attacking these small Bentgrass greens.

A ball striker’s haven, Colonial ensures that a player’s all round game is on point. Shape off the tee, accurate approach skills, or a silky scrambling game, players can find more than way of winning here, but the stats that I feel are most important when selecting a team of picks for this event are; total driving, ball striking and scrambling.

A look at the recent winners at Colonial also gives us a really good guide to what we are looking for this week.

Recent Winners

  • 2018: Justin Rose -20 (20/1)
  • 2017: Kevin Kisner -10 (33/1)
  • 2016: Jordan Spieth -17 (7/1)
  • 2015: Chris Kirk -12 (35/1)
  • 2014: Adam Scott -9 (18/1)
  • 2013: Boo Weekley -14 (100/1)
  • 2012: Zach Johnson (twice) -12 (16/1)
  • 2011: David Toms -13 (33/1)

Betting Odds – the top 10 in the market (best prices from SkyBet and Paddy Power – paying 10 places)

  • Justin Rose 9/1
  • Jon Rahm 12/1
  • Jordan Spieth 12/1
  • Rickie Fowler 12/1
  • Xander Schauffele 16/1
  • Francesco Molinari 16/1
  • Paul Casey 25/1
  • Bryson Dechambeau 25/1
  • Tony Finau 25/1
  • Kevin Kisner 33/1

The Verdict

History at Colonial shows us, that unlike last week, we are not looking for a bomber off the tee. Strategic ball strikers with a sharp short game have thrived here, and I cannot see any reason to change tact this year. Combining that with the fact that many of the top of the market may still feel a bit beaten up from the challenge at Bethpage, I’ve selected four players who I believe can challenge this week.

  1. Paul Casey 25/1

Winner at the Valspar, 2nd at Pebble Beach, 3rd at the WGC Mexico and 4th at the Wells Fargo, Casey has also had 5 other top 20 finishes this season. Quite simply, he remains in excellent form. Stats wise, it almost couldn’t be better either, he sits 2nd in total driving, 7th in ball striking and 30th around the green. He seems to have found a new level of confidence this season, which is now being backed up by results. And for such a confident chap, that’s saying something!

29th last week at Bethpage was solid enough, but he was never in contention, and he comes here looking to improve on an already decent record. 5th here in 2009 was followed by a 10th place on his last visit in 2017.

Casey is my main bet this week, and looks great value with so many question marks against those above him in the betting.

  1. Scott Piercy 45/1

Piercy has been nothing short of brilliant over recent weeks, 3rd at the RBC Heritage, 13th at the Zurich Classic and 2nd at the Byron Nelson, Piercy has continued to put on a ball striking exhibition, whilst also improving his short game. He currently sits 34th in total driving, 13th in ball striking and 24th in scrambling.

He finished 7th here at Colonial in 2017, and with 8 each way places on offer this week; a similar challenge would not be unexpected.

  1. Abraham Ancer 66/1

Colonial looks a course suited very well to Ancer’s game. 10th in total driving, 34th in ball striking and 23rd in scrambling, the Mexican can surely build on his 52nd place here last year, when he shot two very impressive scores in the middle two rounds. Ancer performed well at Bethpage last week, coming through the field to finish 16th. This builds on a number of stellar performances at other ball striking havens, which includes 12th at The Players, 5th at the CIMB Classic, 4that The Shriners.

  1. Joel Dahmen 66/1

It’s been a pretty impressive season so far for the American, 2nd at Wells Fargo, 9th at The Farmers, and 12th at The Players; Dahmen has been playing some very solid golf.  17th in total driving and 33rd in ball striking, he looks a very decent each way price this week, following a 20th place on debut here at Colonial last year.

European Tour – Made in Denmark

Whilst I’m not previewing this event, I thought I’d share who I’m backing on the European Tour this week.

  • Jordan Smith 18/1
  • Thomas Detry 33/1
  • Benjamin Hebert 45/1

Recommended Bets (Paddy Power & Sky Bet – 8 Places)

  • 2pts Each Way – Paul Casey 25/1
  • 1pt Each Way – Scott Piercy 45/1
  • 1pt Each Way – Abraham Ancer 66/1
  • 1pt Each Way – Joel Dahmen 66/1