2019 The Northern Trust Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

2019 The Northern Trust Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Rob Taylor (@RobTaylorSport) previews The Northern Trust and provides us with his best bets for this week’s first playoff event in America.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: + 18.2pts

2019 The Northern Trust Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 08/08/19
  • Time: First tee off 12pm (GMT)
  • Venue: Liberty National, Jersey City, New Jersey
  • Channel: Sky Sports Golf

Last week was a hugely frustrating one for my preview. Cameron Smith, Alex Noren and Jordan Spieth all started brilliantly on day 1, all within touching distance of the leaders. What a followed was a catastrophic demise as one by one the self-combusted and missed the cut! Matthew Wolff hung in there until the final day, when he just couldn’t get anything going to challenge the each way places. It results in a blank week as we head for the end of season play offs. Given that just a few months ago, my profit and loss was over 60pts for the year, I’m obviously keen to build a nice bank of profit before the end of the season.

Liberty National hosts this week’s Northern Trust, which is the first of the three end of season play off events. The top 125 in the rankings tee it up this week, trying to secure a berth in the top 70 for next week’s BMW Championship, before the climax at the Tour Championships at East Lake, which sees the top 30 remaining players fighting it out for the coveted FedEx Cup.

The prize money is huge in these final events, so players will be hugely motivated to perform at their peaks at a course that is hosting a PGA Tour event for the first time since 2013, when Adam Scott won The Barclays.

Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey are noticeable absentees this week, in what is otherwise, as you’d expect an incredible field.

Recent winners of The Northern Trust

  • 2018 – Bryson DeChambeau 100/1
  • 2017 – Dustin Johnson 14/1
  • 2016 – Patrick Reed 50/1
  • 2015 – Jason Day 10/1
  • 2014 – Hunter Mahan 50/1
  • 2013 – Adam Scott 16/1
  • 2012 – Nick Watney 70/1
  • 2011 – Dustin Johnson 35/1

Key Stats & Facts

Liberty National is a 7,370 par 71, designed by Bob Cupp and Tom Kite. A coastal track, that’s defense is the wind if it blows, this ball strikers paradise should favour those that are aggressive from tee to green.

With the wind set to be moderate throughout the week, scoring should be decent, with players that can attack these greens with mid to short irons after an aggressive tee shot surely set to prosper.

The playoff events are huge in the golfing season, with the elite players set to dominate.

Betting Odds – Top 10 (Sky Bet and Paddy Power)

  • Brooks Koepka 8/1
  • Rory McIlroy 11/1
  • Jon Rahm 14/1
  • Dustin Johnson 16/1
  • Justin Thomas 20/1
  • Justin Rose 20/1
  • Rickie Fowler 22/1
  • Patrick Cantlay 22/1
  • Webb Simpson 25/1
  • Tommy Fleetwood 25/1

The Verdict

With 8 places on offer, the temptation is to look for a juicy outsider to grab an each way place. However, I think this first playoff event will be contended by the game’s elite. I’ve picked three players who each have the right style of game to flourish here at Liberty National; long, straight and aggressive players from the tee, that can attack the bentgrass greens, at each way prices that really appeal given how short Koepka McIlroy and Rahm are.

  • Dustin Johnson – 2pts Each Way, 16/1, SkyBet

DJ may have had a barren set of results for him in recent weeks, which reflects his unusual 16/1 in the market. Without a top 10 in the past three months, DJ is such a hugely talented player, that I think he is a strong putting week from contending once again. He sits 4th from tee to green and 21st in approach for the season, so his long game is clearly still firing. He just needs to find a few more putts to take advantage of his strong ball striking. Winner at this event twice, albeit at different courses, in 2011 and 2017, DJ is the man for the big occasion, and Liberty National strikes me a course very well suited to his game.

  • Justin Thomas – 2pts Each Way, 20/1, SkyBet

I’m sure you’re all bored of me backing Justin Thomas by now this season, but once again his price of 20/1 allows me to be confident of striking again with at least an each way place. His recent form has been typical of his season, right up there with a series of strong finishes; 9th, 11th and 12th in his last three starts, including The Open Championship. Thomas remains 2nd from tee to green and 2nd from tee to green, and no one has been as consistent in ball striking as him this season. An improvement on the greens could see him grab his first title of the season, one in which he is very motivated to do so.

  • Gary Woodland – 1pt Each Way, 60/1, SkyBet

Given that I’ve taken two very confident picks from the very top of the market, my third and final pick is a major champion this year at an astonishing price. Woodland’s form since winning the US Open in June may have dipped, with two missed cuts and a 55th placed finish, however his form this season, has been very strong and he still sits, 8th in ball striking, 12th from tee to green and 23rd in approach; a very nice combination for the challenge ahead this week. Woodland will also be buoyed by the amazing news in his personal life that saw him and his wife welcome twin girls last week.  I’m not sure you’ll see too many major champions in the current year at this sort of price for an end of season playoff event!

Recommended Bets (8 Places Paddy Power)

  • Dustin Johnson – 2pts Each Way @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)
  • Justin Thomas – 2pts Each Way @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)
  • Gary Woodland – 1pt Each Way @ 60/1 (Paddy Power)