2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Golf specialist Rob Taylor (@RobTaylorSport) previews the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play and provides us with his best bets for this week’s event.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +30.75pts

2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: Wednesday 27th – Sunday 31st
  • Venue: Austin Country Club, Texas
  • Channel: Sky Sports Golf

It was a disappointing week for my picks last week, with none of them challenging the leader board.

Paul Casey defended his 2018 Valspar Championship, holding off the challenges of Bubba Watson, Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen down the stretch.

On to this week then, where the top 64 in the world compete for the WGC Dell Match play in Austin, Texas, with only Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott opting not to play.

This is a marathon event, with players having to win seven matches to lift the coveted trophy. Broken down, it means that there are 16 groups of 4 players structured in to a bracket draw. Players therefore play each of their three group opponents in a round robin on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, before the knockout stages see the last 16 and quarter finals played on Saturday, followed by the semi-finals and final on Sunday.

This is the fourth straight occasion that the event has been held at Austin Country Club, with the event previously being held at TPC Harding Park and Dove Mountain.

Recent winners include; Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day (twice), Rory Mcilroy and Matt Kucher.

Key Stats & Facts

Austin Country Club has been a popular host for this match play tournament.  A 7,108 par 71 course designed by Pete Dye providing a tough, with some cracking risk and reward holes.  With three long par 5’s all well over 550 yards, it seems logical that some of the bigger hitters have been able to take advantage, with Bubba, DJ and Day having won the first three editions here. The wind can blow at this course, so it may make the strategy on some holes particularly interesting. But as we know all too well, in match play, it’s not just the course that matters this week, it’s the opponent you are up against.

Current form and match play form are obviously important for success this week. Certain players seem to thrive in match play events, with the Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup and this WGC being the three highest profiled. This looks set to be as ever, an enthralling week of competition, with upsets almost guaranteed along the way.

Betting Odds – the top 10 in the market (Paddy Power – paying 8 places)

  • Rory McIlroy 8/1
  • Dustin Johnson 11/1
  • Justin Thomas 14/1
  • Justin Rose 16/1
  • Jon Rahm 16/1
  • Brooks Koepka 18/1
  • Francesco Molinari 20/1
  • Jason Day 22/1
  • Tommy Fleetwood 22/1
  • Paul Casey 22/1

The Verdict

With Paddy Power paying up to 8 places for an each way playoff, my picks just have to get to the quarter finals to secure a return. I obviously want them to win, but in such a tricky event to predict, I am going for a player in each quarter that I believe has the opportunity to cause a slight upset against the favourites in their section.

Quarter 1: Sergio Garcia 33/1

Top seed in this quarter is DJ, but I’m leaning towards Sergio Garcia in this section of the bracket.

I know that I  don’t need to go into Garcia’s credentials as a match play specialist. His record at the Ryder Cup speaks for itself. He sits 6th in strokes gained approach and 20th in par 5 performance, so he has all the current assets to go well this week. The Spaniard is in good recent form, finishing 6th at the WGC Mexico and 9th at the Honda Open. Despite his prowess in this format, he’s only reached the last 16 at this course once, last year. His best finish in the event overall was as a beaten semi-finalist back in 2010. However, with a group including Patrick Reed, Shane Lowry and Andrew Putnam, I can see Garcia progressing easily to the knockout stages, where a last 16 battle against DJ looks likely. From there, we’ll keep things crossed that in the heat of battle, Sergio can progress.

Quarter 2: Francesco Molinari 20/1

Top seed in this quarter is Justin Rose, but I simply can’t leave Molinari out of my team at this event. Winner for this preview three weeks ago at the Arnold Palmer, Molinari’s recent record in world golf is as good as anyone’s. The reigning Open champion took his stellar form to Paris National and was the hero at the 2018 Ryder Cup, winning all 5 of his matches.

His cool temperament won’t allow him to get phased in this format, with his approach wedge play surely giving him enough chances to progress from a group containing Webb Simpson, Thorbjorn Olesen and Satoshi Kodaira. I fancy Molinari to progress all the way in this quarter of the drawer. 

Quarter 3: Louis Oosthuizen 33/1

The top seed in this quarter is Brooks Koepka, but I fancy the inform Oosthuizen to progress here. Runner up last week at the Valspar, the South African also has a very good record in this event. He was runner up to Jason Day in 2016, reached the quarter finals in both 2014 and 2015, as well the last 16 last year. In a group containing Tommy Fleetwood, Ben An and Kyle Stanley, progress certainly won’t be easy.

His President’s Cup record is fantastic, so combined with a clear liking for the format and his record on this track, at 33/1 I think he gives a great each way chance. 

Quarter 4: Jason Day 22/1

The fourth quarter sees Rory McIlroy as favourite, but I’m picking the twice winner of this event, Jason Day to come through a tough section and progress to the knockout stages. Day must see off Mickelson, Stenson and Furyk in his group to tee up a potential last 16 match with Justin Thomas. It doesn’t get easier after that either, with potentially McIlroy or Woods waiting in the quarters. So why am I backing him I hear you ask, well at 22/1 you are getting someone who has won this event on this course in 2016, has another WGC Match play title to his name in 2014 and has a solid President’s Cup record. He simply loves the grind and competitive edge of match play. His past two trips here have been disappointing, but his form was a lot different then. His recent form, prior to a missed cut last week is also good. 8th at The Players, 4th at Pebble Beach and 5th at the Farmers to me shows he’s slightly overpriced this week.

Day also sits 5th in strokes gained putting, which is a very helpful stat in match play to be performing well in!  I’ve already backed Day for the Masters next month, so I’m keen to see him continue his run of form, and pick up another WGC Match play title.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt Eahc Way – Quarter 1: Sergio Garcia @ 33/1 (Paddy Power)
  • 1pt Eahc Way – Quarter 2: Francesco Molinari @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)
  • 1pt Eahc Way – Quarter 3: Louis Oosthuizen @ 33/1 (Paddy Power)
  • 1pt Eahc Way – Quarter 4: Jason Day @ 22/1 (Paddy Power)