Tottenham v Liverpool Champions League Final Stats, Facts & Trends

Tottenham v Liverpool Champions League Final Stats, Facts & Trends

Sam Langston (@Samlan98) provides us with the key stats, facts, and trends ahead of Saturday’s 2018/2019 Champions League final between Tottenham and Liverpool.

Tottenham v Liverpool Champions League Final Stats, Facts & Trends

I’ve never been part of a final with a better team than this.”

If Jürgen Klopp’s pre-Champions League final press conference comments are anything to go by, he will never get a better chance of claiming a first major trophy with Liverpool than Saturday’s showpiece.

It’s easy to forget Klopp, and indeed Mauricio Pochettino, are yet to win their first major titles in England, given the progression that both Liverpool and Tottenham have made under the guidance of the two tacticians.

Whilst it’s quite fitting that one of these men will be lifting their first trophy in Madrid on Saturday, the other will still possess a lingering question mark over their ability to deliver success in the form of silverware.

That adds another layer of intrigue to what’s already a tantalising prospect.

These sides overcame huge hurdles in the last round to reach the final but both were ultimately deserving winners. Across the two legs, Tottenham generated an xG of 3.73 to Ajax’s 2.54, whilst Liverpool beat Barcelona 4.46-3.08 on the same metric.

The Spurs/Liverpool double to qualify following the first legs was a whopping 62/1 shot, implying just a 1.59% chance that both sides would progress to the final.

So, what do the numbers suggest this time round?

Reds respected

Liverpool are best priced at 19/20 (Unibet) to win a sixth Champions League within regular time at the Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday. Bet365 lead the market at 7/2 for a Tottenham triumph, whilst 13/5 can be snapped in various places for the game to go to extra-time.

Since 2004, only twice have finalists gone off shorter than the shade of even-money price on the Merseyside men, which highlights the level of respect for this Reds side in the current market.

Both times it was Bayern Munich who closed as the heavy, odds-on favourites. They firstly closed at 7/10 when defeated by Di Matteo’s Chelsea on penalties in 2012, whilst a slightly bulkier 5/6 was the Bavarians’ starting price as they beat Jürgen Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund a year later.

Favourites Prove Profitable

Favourites hold an excellent record in European finals in time’s gone by.

These teams have W9-D5-L1 across the last 15 UCL deciders, whilst sides who closed at odds-on prices are W3-D1-L0.

By flat staking on each of the 15 Champions League final favourites within the aforementioned period, you’d have profited with a handsome 30.47% ROI based upon their starting prices.

History Suggests Close Contest

With what’s at stake, there’s a tendency for games of this magnitude to be tight. In fact, just 10 of the 26 previous Champions League finals have been settled by more than a solitary strike in regular time.

As such, when you factor in two sets of players who know each other’s strengths, weaknesses, and propensities from their domestic duties, there’s rarely occasions such as this when one of the sides will run riot.

Since the re-branding of the European Cup to the UEFA Champions League in 1991/92, six showpieces have featured finalists from the same country. Four of these have ended in draws, three have been settled from the penalty spot, and only once has the margin of victory been bigger than a single goal.

Either team to win by a goal in 90 minutes is 7/5 with Betway.

Data comparison – Liverpool/Spurs in the Champions League (per-game):

  • Shots – 14.8/15.4
  • Shots on Target – 4.6/5.6
  • Shots in the Penalty Area – 9.2/8.6
  • Shots in the Six-Yard Box – 1.3/1.2
  • xG – 1.95/1.52
  • xGA – 0.96/1.32
  • Touches in the Box – 22.34/17.95
  • Deep completions – 13.86/8.94
  • Conversion Rate – 12.43%/10.81%

*Data courtesy of WhoScored and Wyscout.com.

Other Stats, Facts & Trends

  • This is the first all-English Champions League final in 11 years. The last being when Man United beat Chelsea via penalties in the 2008 showpiece in Moscow.
  • BTTS has banked in 17 of 26 (65.38%) Champions League finals.
  • Under Poch, Spurs have failed to score in just one of 13 European trips, with nine seeing BTTS.
  • Klopp’s Liverpool have recorded just two clean sheets in 14 away UCL outings. Nine have produced winning BTTS bets.
  • Tottenham have W5-D5-L3 under Pochettino on their European travels, with each of their five losses coming by no more than a single goal. Klopp’s Reds are W6-D2-L6 on away soil in the Champions League, winning just four out of fourteen by two plus goals.
  • In all competitions, Spurs have W3-D0-L7 versus the top three this season, including W0-D0-L5 away. Liverpool have W3-D2-L2 against top four rivals.