Brighton v Derby Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 16/02/19

Brighton v Derby Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews Brighton & Hove Albion v Derby County and provides us with his best bets for Saturday lunchtime’s FA Cup 5th round clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -3.69pts

Brighton & Hove Albion v Derby County Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 16/02/19
  • Time: 12:30
  • Venue: Amex Stadium
  • Channel: BT Sport 2

Brighton will be looking to put their dismal league form behind them as they take on Frank Lampard’s Derby County side in the 5th round of the FA Cup this weekend.

The home side for this tie had to get through a 4th round replay at the Hawthorns last Wednesday, winning 3-1 (A.E.T) whilst Derby scraped past Accrington Stanley 1-0 in a game that certainly didn’t lack some drama.

Chris Hughton’s side have not won in the league in 2019 and have been dragged into a relegation dogfight, they currently sit in 14th but only 3 points above 18th placed Southampton. Many fans have called for Hughton to get rid of the more attacking 4-3-3 and revert back to the 4-4-1-1, a system that Brighton used up until December. Despite the system clearly playing a factor in Brighton’s 2019 downfall, the manager has insisted that this is the way his side are going to play.

One man who certainly hasn’t benefitted from the change in system is Pascal Gross. The German had a stellar first season in England, notching 7 goals and 8 assists and winning Brighton’s Player of the Season award but his second season with the Seagulls has been blighted by injury and the change in system. Gross only has 2 goals and 2 assists to his name in 18 league appearances so far this season, the removal of Gross from his preferred no. 10 role (where he spent the 17/18 season) to now operating from the right side of a midfield three has meant he simply can’t affect the game as much as he could going forward.

With Derby’s domestic form certainly contrasting that of Brighton’s, Frank Lampard’s youthful, exciting side has to go into this one confident they can get a win or at least force a replay.

They currently sit in 7th, but level on points with Middlesbrough who occupy the final playoff spot and will feel that with some of the big names crashing out early in this competition, the FA Cup is certainly a realistic chance of some silverware or at least a Wembley semi-final.

This Derby side has a great balance between youth and experience. Loan signing’s Harry Wilson (club’s top scorer), Fikayo Tomori and Mason Mount have been vital to the team’s success so far this season whilst the likes of Tom Huddlestone, Richard Keogh and Craig Bryson have helped bring that balance and have complemented the talented loanee’s superbly.

It’ll be interesting to see how Lampard will attack this game. Will he use a 4-3-3 and likely match up with the superior Brighton side or will he try to bring about greater stability by using two DM’s in a 4-2-3-1, which he has used on occasions this season. I’m thinking he’ll go for his trusted 4-3-3 and have a real go at Hughton’s vulnerable Brighton side.

Team News 

Brighton will be without 4th round goal-scorer Florin Andone after he picked up a three-match suspension for elbowing Sam Field at the Hawthorns in that 4th round replay. Solly March is also a doubt but the electric winger Jose Izquierdo is back in contention after 10 weeks out with a knee issue.

Derby have no notable injury issues to talk about. Tom Lawrence is expected to make Lampard’s starting 11 after scoring on his return against Ipswich on Wednesday night. Andy King, who’s on loan from Leicester, is cup-tied.

Potential Brighton Starting XI: Ryan, Montoya, Duffy, Burn, Bernardo, Bissouma, Stephens, Gross, Locadia, Murray, Knockaert.

Potential Derby Starting XI: Roos, Bogle, Keogh, Tomori, Malone, Bryson, Mount, Evans, Wilson, Marriott, Lawrence.

Head To Head

  • All-time: Brighton-15, Draw-7, Derby-20.
  • First FA Cup meeting since 1961 where Brighton won 3-1.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Brighton’s win at West Brom in the fourth-round replay is their only victory in seven matches in all competitions (D3, L4), they are yet to win a league game in 2019.
  • Brighton’s Glenn Murray has scored four goals in five FA Cup appearances, despite not starting any of those matches and playing a total of 67 minutes.
  • Brighton have never won the FA Cup, Derby only once in 1946.
  • The Rams last made the quarter-finals in 1999, losing 1-0 at Arsenal.
  • Under 2.5 goals in Derby’s last 4 games in all comps.
  • BTTS in 8/12 of Brighton’s home games in the PL this season, 11/16 of Derby’s Championship games away from home.
  • Harry Wilson has 12 G+A’s in the Championship this season, which leads Derby players.
  • Glenn Murray has 10 PL goals this season and is Brighton’s top scorer, centre-back Shane Duffy is second with 5 goals.

Betting Odds

  • Brighton 5/6
  • Draw 45/17
  • Derby 4/1

The Verdict

I think the Championship side have got a real shot of getting a result here and at 4/1 they’re great value that many will want to take on. Instead of backing them to win I’m going to take them in a double chance at 11/10. The Amex is not exactly a fortress (1 Brighton goal in last three home games) and Frank Lampard has got his young Derby side playing with absolutely no fear whatsoever. Players like Mason Mount and Harry Wilson will be out trying to prove a point, looking to show what they can do against Premier League opposition. Remember, this Derby team has gone to Old Trafford and won (on pens), narrowly lost 3-2 at Stamford Bridge and have beaten Southampton in this competition already. It would be no surprise for me if Derby get a win here but I’m going to play it a little safer.

Another bet I like is BTTS at just short of evens. In fairness to Brighton, they have started to create more chances per game when in the 4-3-3 so they should really work some openings against Championship opposition. BTTS has come in in 75% of Brighton’s home games this season and in 68.75% of Derby’s away league games. I’m confident this will land on Saturday with Brighton really needing to go out there and prove a point.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Derby double chance – 11/10 (Marathon Bet)
  • 2pts – BTTS – 10/11 (Betfred)