Inter Milan v Lazio Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 31/03/19
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Inter vs Lazio and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s Serie A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: -4.78pts
Inter v Lazio Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 29/03/19
- Time: 19:30
- Venue: San Siro
On a weekend where eight of the top 10 in the league play each other, the final game of matchday 29 sees Inter host Lazio, with Champions League qualification at the forefront of all involved.
Lazio are six points off fourth placed Milan, albeit with a game in hand, and a defeat in Milan, depending on results elsewhere, could be extremely costly.
Milan play Sampdoria on Saturday evening and, should the Rossoneri win, they could well open up a nine-point advantage over Lazio, which would make this game close to a must win for the Biancocelesti.
As for Inter, their up and down season seems to be on the up at the minute, especially after their Milan Derby victory last time out. They are still very much in the driving seat when it comes to Champions League qualification, as they sit in third, two points clear of Milan and six of Roma in fifth.
Lazio have not beaten Inter in the league since 2016 and haven’t won at the San Siro in the league since 2015, as well as losing three of the last four Serie A meetings. Draws have often been the trend for this fixture historically, with their being 20 draws in the 59 matches, however, there has only been one draw in the last eight.
Inter have been very strong at home this season, with just two defeats in their 13 games at the San Siro. Lazio have struggled all season with games against the top half sides in the league, winning just two of their 11 games.
The in-form Inter striker, Lautaro Martinez, was injured on International duty and is out for two weeks. This could pave the way for Mauro Icardi to make a return to the matchday squad.
Ciro Immobile returns to the side after serving his suspension.
Potential Inter Starting XI: Handanovic; D’Ambrosio, Skriniar, Miranda, Asamoah; Gagliardini, Brozovic, Vecino; Politano, Keita, Perisic
Potential Lazio Starting XI: Strakosha; Luiz Felipe, Acerbi, Radu; Marusic, Milinkovic, Leiva, Luis Alberto, Lulic; Correa, Immobile
Head To Head
- Lazio lead the H2H 20 to 19, but there have been 20 draws between these two sides in the 59 games they have had. However, Lazio haven’t won at the San Siro since 2015 and haven’t beaten Inter at all in the league since 2016.
Key Stats & Facts
- Inter have won nine of their last 11 home league matches.
- Under 2.5 goals has occurred in five of Inter’s last six home league games.
- Lazio have only won two games at the San Siro in the last 19 years.
- Inter – 5/4
- Draw – 23/10
- Lazio – 5/2
Given the way the race for fourth spot is going, Lazio are very much playing catch-up and can ill-afford to slip further behind Roma and Milan.
Having said that, Lazio have struggled in the big games against top half opposition this season, winning just two of the eleven games. The H2H is also massively in Inter’s favour, with Lazio winning just two matches at the San Siro in 19 years.
Despite the poor form for Lazio in big games, they do score in the majority of them, having managed at least one goal in eight of those 11. Inter have lost just twice at home also and have already beaten the likes of Napoli, Sampdoria, Fiorentina and Milan at the San Siro. They have conceded just six goals at home as well this season, averaging the concession of just 0.4 goals per game there, making Lazio’s task look even larger.
Inter are 5/4 for the win in this game, which looks far too big given their form against Lazio, their performances in big games and their impressive home record this season. That price looks good enough for me in this one.