Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Tennis specialist Craig Vickers (@craigvickers_) previews the 2019 men’s Wimbledon final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s match.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +18.8pts

2019 Wimbledon Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 1-14 July
  • Venue: The All-England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
  • Channel: BBC and BBC Red Button

Sunday marks men’s final day at Wimbledon with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic squaring off in a rematch of their compelling 2015 and 2016 duels at the final stage in SW19.

Federer’s progression meant our hopes of Rafael Nadal winning both the first set and the match went up in smoke and, in truth, it was a clinical performance from the Swiss. He took the opening set on a tie-break in which the Spaniard squandered a mini-break advantage and, save for a mental walkabout in set two, outgunned Nadal in every department.

Djokovic, meanwhile, took care of business against Roberto Bautista-Agut in four sets, but it was closer than we anticipated with the Serbian forced to dig deep into his reserves to oust the first-time semi-finalist.

The Verdict

With both players having spent a similar amount of time on court this fortnight, it seems smart to assume that the match will be decided by which player produces the higher quality of tennis.

Federer has been before – eleven times to be exact – while Djokovic is chasing his fifth Wimbledon crown, but the Serbian holds the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings.

Indeed, the last time the Swiss defeated the world number one at a Grand Slam was at Wimbledon in 2012 when Federer eventually went on to win the seventh of his eight Wimbledon titles. Since then, Djokovic has edged the Swiss in back-to-back finals in 2014 and 2015.

The latter victory is a crucial reference point considering the Serbian was so utterly dominant that season, reaching the final of all four Grand Slams and only an inspired Stan Wawrinka in Paris preventing him from sweeping all before him.

The Serbian, after a lengthy injury lay-off at the end of 2017, is at least close to rekindling that level of dominance after winning three out of the last four majors on offer, and it’s clear from their past results on grass that Djokovic holds the mental edge – as he does over large swathes of the men’s tour.

However, Federer seemed to relish the underdog tag in his dismissal of Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals and he reversed years of pre-conceived notions that he could never outlast the Spaniard in lengthier exchanges at 37-year-old.

Expect similar rallies against Djokovic, who doesn’t hit with nearly as much power off the ground and from the serve, and the Serbian explained the Federer complex after his win over Bautista-Agut on Friday: “This surface complements his game very much. He loves to play very fast. Takes away the time from his opponent.”

Federer will have also been encouraged by the display of Bautista-Agut in the semi-finals. The Spaniard made life difficult for Djokovic, committing very few unforced errors from the baseline and finding success with his outswinging serve on the deuce court.

The Serbian only began to settle after breaking in the sixth game of the third set, fending off two break back points in the very next game, and as such Federer will be confident he can make inroads into the Djokovic game.

The duo contested a five-setter in the final at Wimbledon in 2014 and it could be a similar match considering Nadal was able to push Djokovic to a deciding set in a high-quality semi-final here twelve months ago.

The Serbian prevailed that afternoon – or, rather, over two days – thanks to an immense serving performance under pressure and his recent dominance at the non-clay Grand Slams is likely to give him the edge on the bigger points.

Recommended Bets

  • 1.2pts – Over 44.5 games – 29/20 (Unibet)
  • 1pt – 5 Set Match – Yes – 13/8 (bet365)