EFL Best Bets | Tuesday 22nd January
EFL specialist and in-form Tom Love (@TomLove_18) has analysed Tuesday evening’s action and delivered us his best bets.
Plymouth v Walsall
The battle against relegation in league 1 is a highly intriguing one. Teams down there seem to be putting a run together and dragging other sides into it. Bradford City were in good form over the festive period, Scunthorpe too have gone W4, D1, L0 in their last 5. We can add Plymouth to that list as they’ve won three on the bounce.
The Pilgrims are a streaky side under Derek Adams, that was emphasised last season as they went from the bottom four to ending on the cusp of the play offs. There’s talent in their front four with the likes of Antoni Sarcevic and Ruben Lamerias both picking up form. Freddie Ladapo blows hot and cold but his goal return is decent for a young striker.
The Devon club host a Walsall side with just one win in their last eight, losing five of those. Centre half Jack Fitzwater has returned to West Brom after his loan spell. The Saddlers were one of the favourites for the drop pre-season so survival would be a good first season for Dean Keates. Their strong start to the season caught everyone off guard but that seems like a long time ago now.
Goals have been a feature in both sides’ games of late so it could be a bit of a shootout but I want to get the in-form hosts on side.
We can combine Plymouth ‘double chance’ and over 1 goal with Bet365’s BetBuilder feature and garner a 4/5 quote. That makes a lot of appeal. The 7/5 on the hosts looks decent but to get the insurance of a score draw on side makes this look a safer way in.
AFC Wimbledon v Fleetwood
It may make little surprise to you that Joey Barton’s Fleetwood side are the dirtiest in the league. The former Newcastle and QPR midfielder was well known for his combative and aggressive nature as a player and his transmitted that onto his squad this season.
When it comes to results the Cod Army are an awkward team to get right due to their sheer inconsistency, however their ill-disciplined nature has remained a constant feature.
They travel to Kingsmeadow to take on AFC Wimbledon side that are averaging just 1.2 cards a game. Fleetwood on the other hand are averaging around 2.4 cards a game. Unfortunately no bookmakers seem to be pricing up the card handicap markets for this one and prices on Fleetwood bookings are prohibitive.
We can get a 4/5 shot on 40+ booking points in the match with SkyBet though and I’ll take that. Wimbledon aren’t the most aggressive but their last game against Barnsley saw this land and their FA Cup match against Fleetwood the other week also saw 40+ booking points. They aren’t the crazy gang of old but under Wally Downes they’ve started to pick up a few more cards.
Yeovil v Lincoln
Lincoln are justifying their antepost odds for promotion. They’re the most solid and well-rounded side in the league for my money and they have an excellent managerial set up their with the Crowley brothers. Their squad is top 3 material to be fair, John Akinde was a major signing, well proven in the fourth tier. Shay McCartan has impressed on loan from Bradford whilst Bruno Andrade has dazzled on the wing since coming in from Boreham Wood.
The Imps currently top the league 2 table with 16 wins, 7 draws and just 4 defeats to their name so far. They’ll be expecting to add another victory as they travel to Yeovil on Tuesday night.
I’d expect them to do so as well. Darren Way has come under a lot of scrutiny from the Glovers faithful in the last few months but they’ve won their last two to relieve some of that pressure. However one of this was a freak result at Mansfield, a game they were dominated in, the other was against rock bottom Notts County.
The Somerset club had a slapdash approach to recruitment and its noticeably harder for them to attract players from a geographical point of view. Lincoln have a far superior squad in quality and depth and they should get the job done here.
We can back the visitors at 117/100 (2.17 in decimals) with MarathonBet and at odds against it looks a highly palatable price.