Football specialist and pro-punter Dave South (@LockupTipster) provides us with his selections for this week’s #MagicMark feature.
Magic Mark – Week 6
This week our selections are spread over both Saturday and Sunday and this week our chosen three outcomes are linked to SkyBet odds, as the markets are quite specific.
Firstly, we begin in the National League, where top of the table Woking head to Chorley, who are occupied at the wrong end of the table. The cards have gone sideways in recent games failing to close down victories with draws. However, they look to restore points by taking them off strugglers Chorley.
I was initially tempted by the away win price around 6/5, but found another market, which pays just under even money, although believe this market carries some value to it, once explained. The market to be considered is for both sides to be awarded four corners each, valued by Skybet at 10/11. The individual prices base Chorley at 2/7 for making this feat individually and Woking 4/11 respectfully. My calculations combine this at roughly 3/4, but are 10/11.
On the home/away corner stats Chorley’s average stands at 4.8 per game, with the Cards firmly at 5.2. Even with the overall readings come to fruition at taking this stat based punt and gladly makes part one of three.
Next up we are considering Norwich to score and be awarded four or more corners at even money with Skybet. Norwich were superb in defeating Manchester City last weekend. Norwich have netted in all but one tie and have played three of the big four in the first five games. The Canaries travel to Burnley, who have netted in all but one game also.
The bet in question may be seen as risky but see it as a coin toss in respect that corners aren’t in the stat bank for the visitors. Norwich have struggled on the road with corners, however have factored in they got three against City, whereas the early season average is around two. Burnley at home in early form at home have conceded 5.5 corners whereas the overall is closer to six. With the momentum of last week for Norwich, they can continue on this crest and see confidence in bagging us the bet.
Last up we head to Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea host Liverpool on the Sky pick of the day at 16:30. The Merseyside outfit saw an unexpected defeat in Italy in midweek from Champions League match day one late on. Chelsea also lost to Valencia in what could be described as slack marking from a free kick and then added to the misery by Ross Barkley missing a penalty late on, which could have rescued the draw.
The blues have failed to win at home all season, and the visitors can capitalise on the weaknesses in the Chelsea defence. Liverpool are just over evens in places to win and are a different side that drew in this fixture a year ago. This could be tradeable if Liverpool score the first goal will plummet in price, so also worth considering as an option. The cashout features with bookmakers offer relatively poor value, and if backing a single look out for bookies which offer a full pay out if your team scores the first goal, which I am aware that Betway are and possibly William Hill will offer.