League One Best Bets | Saturday 9th October
Football specialist Tom Love (@TomLove_18) has scrutinised this weekend’s League One action and delivered us with his best bets.
- 2019/2020 Season Profit & Loss: +30.25pts
Peterborough v Lincoln
Peterborough are and always have been a side that tries to play attractive, front-foot football. Owner Darragh McAnthony has long invested in a strong recruitment system and Posh have gained a reputation for turning a profit on their punts. Millions have been made from the sales of Britt Assombalonga, Connor Washington and Dwight Gayle but they have the best platform to show what they’re all about at London Road due to the heavy ethos on an attacking playing style.
The current beneficiaries include Marcus Maddison, Ivan Toney and Mo Eisa. The terrific trio have chipped in with a mammoth 92% of the teams goal output. Both Toney and Eisa have scored 9 a piece and the pair look Championship quality, as does Maddison who has seems to only score worldies. The team is moulded to play to the strengths of these three and with attackers naturally having a greater value in the transfer market McAnthony is likely to be bombarded with big money offers for his star men in January and the summer.
6 of Peterborough’s 9 games have seen over 2.5 goals land with 5 of those also seeing over 3.5 goals cop. They played out a ding-dong battle with Wycombe last week in a 3-3 draw and it wasn’t a surprise. Posh have notched 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 9 so you can’t really back against goals here.
Lincoln have a new manager at the helm as Michael Appleton has taken the reigns after the Cowley brothers left for Huddersfield. It’s a solid looking appointment and although it will be extremely difficult to emulate the success of the loved duo, the infrastructure is in place for a competitive season for the Imps.
Tyler Walker bagged twice in the impressive win against Sunderland last week, that ended a disappointing 5 game winless run in the league. He is another striker with great potential and with Bruno Andrade back to his best out wide and the creativity of Jack Payne and Jorge Grant among the ranks not to mention the option of big John Akinde, Lincoln have many a threat.
It’s more of a Peterborough based bet this though, their last 6 league home games have seen over 2.5 backers profit and the 89/100 quotes from MarathonBet look more than fair for another repeat on Saturday.
Bristol Rovers v MK Dons
I’ll go with the form book here and take home side Bristol Rovers to beat struggling MK Dons at odds-against. The Gas have a W5, D2, L1 record in the last 8 games and are one of the form teams in the league after a slow start. I personally backed Johnson Clarke-Harris (40/1) each-way for the top goalscorer gong in league 1, he’s bagged 7 so far and has been efficient in front of goal, landing a strong 67% of his shots on target.
He was superb for Graham Coughlin in the second half of last season and he’s been at the front of their strong recent record. Tom Davies and the highly experienced Tony Craig have looked solid at the back whilst right back Josh Hare likes to get forward and supply crosses to the strikers. Tyler Smith, Victor Adebayejo and Tom Nichols can provide alternative threats at the top end of the pitch which must delighted gaffer Coughlin.
MK have fallen off of late and are slipping down the table at an alarming rate. They’ve lost 4 on the bounce, scoring just once in that time. Manager Paul Tisdale is someone I like but he likes to operate with a tight knit squad and that means a dearth of quality should his key players get injured. Ben Reeves, Rhys Healey, Joe Mason and Bailly Cargill were all injured for the visit of Burton last week and they went down 3-0 in a poor performance. The Brewers won the shot count 21-7 and were deserving of their comfortable victory, defensively the Buckinghamshire boys looked extremely porous with Regan Poole especially struggling.
They’re not a physical side and I think Clarke-Harris and co will see them as a soft touch and should bully their way to a win. 15/13 quotes are tempting especially as Rovers oust MK on the defensive xG at least, they concede 1.1 xG per game whereas the away side are struggling to keep opposition chances to a premium, conceding 1.7 xG per game.