Chargers v Patriots Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 13/01/19

Los Angeles Chargers v New England Patriots Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s AFC divisional showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • Season record: +68.52 units on 90 selections
  • Playoff record: +15.18 units on 15 selections

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 13/01/19
  • Time: 18:05
  • Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
  • Channel: Sky Sports USA

This should be a fascinating game on Sunday evening. The Patriots are not the juggernaut that they have been in the past. However, thanks to an 8-0 home record and a 5-1 divisional record they once again claimed a bye and a home game in round 2. The Chargers are coming off a huge win in Baltimore and will come into this game believing they can stop the Patriots.

The Chargers face a very different system this week to what they had to deal with last week. There will be no read option, very little quarterback scrambling, and a lot more throwing. The Chargers defensive staff showed they can make a game plan to match anyone. They have controlled good offences already this season, and beat Kansas City in Arrowhead, while holding them to 28 points. The Chargers have not really excelled at any one thing this season, but rank in the top half in nearly every offensive and defensive stat. They also rank top 10 in both scoring and preventing red zone touchdowns.

The Patriots have surprised many this season with their rushing game. They rank 5th in rushing yards and fourth in rushing touchdowns. However, a lot of that is due to them having leads a lot this season, as they have not been very efficient running the ball (20th). They have been more efficient throwing the ball where they rank 6th, with 7.2 net yards per attempt. Considering their offence has looked bad at times they still rank top five in points scored and total yards gained. Defensively they have forced the fifth most turnovers in the league (28), while turning the ball over just the seventh amount (18). One thing to watch in this game is the Patriots third down and red zone conversions. So far this season they rank middle of the pack in both converting and preventing conversions in those situations.

Team News

The Chargers will welcome back Hunter Henry in this game. Henry has missed the entire season with a torn ACL. His usage is unknown, but he could have a big effect in this game. It also looks like Mike Pouncey and Melvin Gordon will be able to suit up, and their presence will be a big boost for the offence.

It looks like the Patriots should have most of their main players available for this game, and should be able to welcome back Cordarrelle Patterson, who missed their Week 17 game.

Head To Head

  • The Patriots are 22-14-2 all-time when facing the Chargers.
  • 17 of those 22 victories have come in the last 20 meetings between the two sides.
  • The Patriots have won seven of the last eight meetings between the teams, including two postseason games.
  • The Patriots are 11-1 against the Chargers in games at Foxborough since 1971, the only loss came in 2005.
  • Rivers has not won a game when Tom Brady was the opposing quarterback. The one time the Rivers and the Chargers did beat New England was 2008, when Brady was injured.

Key Stats & Facts

  • The Chargers are 9-1 when not playing in their home stadium, they are also 9-0 when playing outside of Los Angeles, as their one road loss this season came when playing against the LA Rams.
  • The Chargers have gone three straight games without allowing a rushing touchdown.
  • The Patriots have won eight consecutive home playoff games, averaging 34.9 points per game. They have also won their last 15 home games, having not lost in Foxborough since October 1st, 2017.
  • Rivers is 1-4 in AFC divisional round games, the one time he did win this round he lost to the Patriots in the Championship game while playing with a torn ACL.
  • Brady owns the NFL record with 27 postseason wins. Brady has more home playoff wins in his career (19) than any other QBs career total (Joe Montana: 16).

Betting Odds

  • Los Angeles Chargers 17/10
  • New England Patriots 8/15

The Verdict

I am really struggling with this game. My heart says the Chargers are the more talented group of players. In fact, I have seen many people say they have seven or eight of the most talented players in this game right now. However, my head tells me not to pick against the Patriots. They have had a week’s rest, are playing at home, have so much experience in these situations and have seemed to play extremely vanilla on offence down the stretch. I am leaning to the Chargers getting the points, but it is strictly a lean.

The bet I find hard to pass up is for this game to be decided by five or less points on either side. I think this will be a close game and decided by less than one score.

Again, I am also leaning towards the under in this game, which is currently at 47.5. I think both teams look to run the ball, but I can also see this game exploding quickly at some point. With the predicted snow seemingly not coming in New England, this game could go either way.

For anytime touchdown scorers I am looking in the direction of James Develin. We have seen the Patriots use him to plunge the ball in on the goal line this season, and he think he gets another opportunity this week. At 9/1 that is too good of a price to pass up. Derek Watt at 33/1 is also interesting, especially after we saw him robbed of a touchdown last week. Maybe the Chargers leak him out into the flat near the goal line and take advantage of the Patriots lack of sideline to sideline speed.

From a prop bet point of view this game screams of a Rob Gronkowski special to me. The Chargers safeties are generally smaller guys and if the Patriots decide to unleash Gronk I struggle to see them containing him. You can get him to have over 49.5 receiving yards at 10/11 currently. You can also get over 50.5 at those odds with Betfair and PaddyPower.

Recommended Bets

  • Game to be decided by less than five points (Tribet – Any other result) – 21/10 (Bet365)
  • James Develin anytime touchdown – 9/1 (Unibet)
  • Derek Watt anytime touchdown – 33/1 (Bet365)
  • Rob Gronkowski over 49.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (BetFred)