Mexican Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 28/10/18

Mexican Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Formula 1 specialist Ben Issatt (@BenIssatt) previews the Mexican Grand Prix and provides us with his best bets for Sunday evening’s big race.

Mexican Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 28/10/2018
  • Time: 19:10GMT
  • Venue: Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, Mexico City
  • Channel: Sky Sports F1

A thrilling battle between the four fastest drivers on the grid is on the cards at one of Formula 1’s most unique events, the Mexican Grand Prix on Sunday.

Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari were almost inseparable in qualifying as just 0.211s split Daniel Ricciardo, who claimed a brilliant last-minute pole, and Sebastian Vettel in fourth.

Max Verstappen’s bid to become F1’s youngest polesitter had to wait, taking second behind his teammate while Lewis Hamilton, needing just a seventh place finish to become world champion, will start from third.

Now, they all face one of the most daunting starts of the season with over 800m from the grid to the tricky opening sequences of Turns 1, 2 and 3, site of plenty of the drama over the years.

12 months ago, Verstappen, Vettel and Hamilton all made contact there with the Dutchman emerging ahead before claiming his most emphatic victory to date, while in 2016, it was Ferrari and Red Bull coming to blows in a chaotic final few laps.

Thrown in a carnival atmosphere with over 30,000 watching in the stadium section and cheering on local hero Sergio Perez and you begin to realise why Mexico has become such a popular race in the three years since it returned in 2015.

Now here’s our look ahead to how it could all play out on Sunday.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Three different drivers have won in Mexico since F1’s return (Nico Rosberg, Hamilton & Verstappen)
  • Mexico City is the highest race to take place on the calendar at 7,350 feet above sea level
  • Only two of six Renault-powered cars finished the race in 2017
  • Lewis Hamilton can claim the F1 title in Mexico for a second straight year

Betting Odds

  • Max Verstappen 13/8 (SkyBet)
  • Daniel Ricciardo 2/1 (SkyBet)
  • Lewis Hamilton 7/2 (BetFred)
  • Sebastian Vettel 7/1 (UniBet)

The Verdict

With a very unpredictable race in store there are plenty of good value bets to consider and here are four I have chosen.

Red Bull not to have double points effectively means I expect at least one of their cars retire from the race.

Starting on the front row, memories from Baku will no doubt reappear, when Ricciardo and Verstappen collided, but the main threat is reliability with both drivers having small problems throughout the weekend so far and a full 71 laps to complete on Sunday.

Force India will start 11th and 13th respectively with Esteban Ocon ahead of Sergio Perez but with free tyre choice they are set for a strong race compared to the Renault’s and Sauber’s ahead.

A double points finish comes in at 1/1 at best with the major bookies so instead I’ve gone for two more specific choices.

Ocon to finish in the top six is my first with the Frenchman starting in a stronger position than his teammate.

With the prospect of a few retirements among the top three teams as well that could open the way for the midfield teams to access that top six of which Esteban is likely to be leading if strategies play out as expected.

The second is Perez to finish anywhere inside the top 10 which again, based on the likely strategies, should be all but certain as long as he reaches the chequered flag.

Finally, a long shot with Vettel to win the race. Though he’s starting fourth, his Ferrari has had a big advantage on the straights which could well allow him to move up the order.

The deficit through the corners will also be much less during the race, bringing the German, who has to win, right back into play.

Recommended Bets

  • Not to have double points finish: Red Bull 5/2 (Bet365)
  • Points finish: Sergio Perez 4/7 (Bet365)
  • Top 6 finish: Esteban Ocon 5/2 (Bet365)
  • To win: Sebastian Vettel 7/1 (UniBet)